FOURTH ANNIVERSARY OF CUBAN CRACKDOWN DRAWS NEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000248

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR WHA/CCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2017
TAGS: PHUM KDEM SOCI CU
SUBJECT: FOURTH ANNIVERSARY OF CUBAN CRACKDOWN DRAWS NEAR


HAVANA 00000248 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly for Reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) Summary: Cuban opposition groups are planning
relatively few events to mark the March 18-20 anniversary of
the 2003 "Black Spring" crackdown, in which the GOC arrested,
quickly tried and sentenced 75 peaceful pro-democracy
activists to lengthy prison terms. (Fifty-nine of the 75
remain in prison; they are among the roughly 280 documented
political prisoners in Cuba.) The "Ladies in White,"
relatives of the 75, intend to hold a high-profile, 59-hour
vigil at the Cuban equivalent of the Washington Monument.
They will also participate in a live videoconference with
counterparts in Miami, hosted by USINT. Other groups,
including Plantados, the Andrei Sakharov Party and the Cuban
Human Rights Foundation, among others, are planning fasts,
vigils, protests or other actions. Probationed 75er Oscar
Espinosa Chepe fears the GOC could launch a new, massive
crackdown. We see that as unlikely, and view the regime as
nervous over broad and growing discontent. End Summary.


2. (C) Cuba's "Ladies in White" are quietly planning to
(please protect) hold a conspicuous public vigil at
Revolution Square, considered hallowed ground by orthodox
communists. The "Damas" intend to release 59 doves during
the 59-hour vigil, which will begin early on Monday, March

19. The previous day, the group plans to hold its
traditional post-mass march down Havana's Fifth Avenue,
followed by a luncheon, a USINT-facilitated videoconference
with Cuban former political prisoners in Miami, and another
mass to mark the January death of human rights activist
Miguel Valdes Tamayo. Damas from the eastern provinces who
are not being blocked by the GOC are trickling into the
capital in advance of the events; two from the Las Tunas city
of Puerto Padre told us that GOC harassment of dissidents
there is running high. One said that at least 20 signs
reading "I Do Not Cooperate With The Dictatorship" recently
appeared around town, and that State Security responded by
rounding up, fingerprinting and threatening around 20 human
rights activists.

PAYA, ROQUE GROUPS APPARENTLY LAYING LOW
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3. (C) Many of the biggest pro-democracy organizations -
Oswaldo Paya's Christian Liberation Movement (MCL),Martha
Beatriz Roque's Assembly to Promote Civil Society (APSC) and
Vladimiro Roca's All United (TU) -- either did not have or
did not disclose any plan to commemorate the crackdown. The
Lawton Human Rights Foundation, led by 75er Oscar Biscet,
plans a token fast to mark the occasion.

PLANTADOS PLAN PROTEST
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4. (C) Plantados President Julio Cesar Lopez, released in
February after 18 months of detention, told us on March 14
that (please protect) his group will hold a protest on March
18 outside a church in Havana's Arroyo Naranjo district. He
said 30 to 40 participants would wear T-shirts bearing the
non-cooperation message and distribute copies of the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

LABOR ACTIVISTS TO GATHER
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5. (C) Labor activist Aurelio Bachiller told us on March 13
that (please protect) two Old Havana-based independent
libraries affiliated with the independent labor movement
would hold dissident gatherings mid-day on March 17 to
remember the Black Spring crackdown and call for the release
of the seven labor activists (six of them 75ers) currently in
prison. Afterward, Bachiller said, participants in the two
meetings would gather at a Havana park and carry on their
discussions.

VIGIL BY ANDREI SAKHAROV PARTY
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6. (C) A normally reliable source told us on March 13 that
the acting president of the Andrei Sakharov Party, Modesto
Leopoldo Valdivia, informed him that the group plans to hold
a "large" vigil in Arroyo Naranjo on March 18. It was not
clear what this action would entail, or whether it would be
held in a public place.

CUBAN HUMAN RIGHTS FOUNDATION
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7. (C) The Cuban Human Rights Foundation of blind activist
Juan Carlos Gonzalez Leyva announced on March 12 that the
group had launched a weeklong fast, of 12 hours per day, in
remembrance of the crackdown. The Foundation said a number
of other organizations were joining in, including the
Alternative Option Independent Movement (of the Sigler Amaya
family, based in Matanzas); the Marta Abreu Women's Movement
(led by Noelia Pedraza in Santa Clara); and the Democratic
Party of November 30.

YOUTH GROUPS OFF-BALANCE
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8. (C) Relentless State Security harassment is impeding the
work of Cuba's key opposition youth groups, which do not plan
to hold any major or joint activities to note the "repressive
wave" of 2003. The Marti Youth Coalition (CJM) told us that
on March 9, State Security interrogated CJM member Livan Ruiz
Hernandez harshly for 12 hours. Young People Against
Censorship (JSC) told us that at roughly the same time, State
Security warned JSC chief Liannis Merino that if she
continued to file news reports overseas, she would be jailed,
her (dissident) husband charged with "dangerousness" and her
five-month-old daughter institutionalized. In the eastern
provinces, Nestor Rodriguez Lobaina's Cuban Youth Movement
for Democracy is collecting university-student signatures for
a petition that calls for the restoration of university
autonomy.

IN MADRUGA, GOC TAKING NO CHANCES
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9. (C) The provincial Havana town of Madruga, now famous for
its residents' November 2, 2006 act of defiance toward
police, has been inundated with State Security officers.
Eddy Hernandez Arencibia, at the center of the November 2
incident, told us on March 14 that the political police have
left dissidents no room to maneuver or carry out a
commemorative event. Another Madruga resident, Yaneyvis
Alvarez Sosa, told us State Security hinted that she might
lose custody of her two-year-old daughter if she continues
her activism.

COMMENT
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10. (C) The regime has managed to ramp up repression against
dissidents while largely avoiding the deployment of thugs in
the streets. Released 75er Oscar Espinosa Chepe wrote on
March 13 that another repressive wave should not be ruled
out, and of course this is always possible in a totalitarian
state. But as Chepe himself noted, "The economic, social and
political situation is constantly worsening, and as a result,
discontent is growing." This reality is not lost on those
calling the shots.
PARMLY