CASTRO CALLS IN TO CHAVEZ' RADIO SHOW

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON VE CU
SUBJECT: CASTRO CALLS IN TO CHAVEZ' RADIO SHOW


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Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: Media Tuesday evening February 27 aired a
tape of Fidel Castro's call to Hugo Chavez during the
latter's on-air radio show called "Alo Presidente." We
believe the half-hour conversation was genuine, and did not
appear edited. Castro and Chavez commented on Tuesday's
stock-market declines, on Castro's health, on cooperation
agreements between the two countries and briefly on how Cuba
"marches on" during Castro's illness. The conversation took
place while a Venezuelan Ministerial delegation was in Havana
to sign 1.5 billion dollars worth of trade and investment
deals, the centerpiece of which was ethanol production,
according to Cuban media. Reactions to Castro's radio
appearance run the range from coached man-in-the-street media
interviews that say "We're so happy he's getting better," to
dissident views to the effect that the Cuban people are
insulted by not hearing about their leader's health directly
instead of via Venezuela. Castro's speech seemed labored and
partially incoherent, but no less coherent than in his
January 28 video clip with Chavez. End Summary.


2. (SBU) State-run propaganda newsmagazine show "Mesa
Redonda" aired a tape Tuesday evening of Fidel Castro's call
to Hugo Chavez while the latter was hosting his radio call-in
show "Alo Presidente." TV images accompanying the audio were
a combination of still photos of Castro and Chavez, plus
replays of video clips from their last visit together in
Havana at the end of January. However, unlike the video
clips in January, which were clearly edited down from two
hours of raw footage to ten usable minutes, Tuesday's tape
appeared uncut. It went on for 32 minutes, including some
awkward pauses, providing some evidence of the state of Fidel
Castro's health.

-- His speech was raspy, labored and slurred, but not to the
point that he couldn't make himself understood;

-- At the end of some of his longer interventions the
strength of Castro's voice seemed to fade, indicating fatigue;

-- Content rambled and was often incoherent, but in a manner
consistent with Castro's longer public speeches before his
July 2006 incapacitation.


3. (U) Content of the Castro-Chavez conversation has been
fully reported in open media sources; what we see as
highlights are:

-- Both Chavez and Castro making reference to Tuesday's sharp
stock-market declines in Shanghai and New York, concluding
that capitalism is inferior to socialism. Leaving aside the
silly economic analysis, Castro's reference to the world
markets provides a verifiable time-stamp to the audio-tape,
and shows him keeping abreast of world events;

-- Cuba-Venezuela Business: With a high-level Venezuelan
delegation in Havana, Castro's reference to an agreement to
build 11 ethanol plants and projections that bilateral trade
will increase to 1.5 billion dollars, again shows Castro
involved in managing Cuba's big-ticket affairs, and
continuing his obsession with energy-industry projects;

-- Castro said he's feeling better, and that Cuba marches on
normally during his long convalescence.


4. (C) Reactions: International press accredited in Havana
ran some street interviews, but seemed to select only those
willing to give their names, and therefore certain to say
that they're pleased to see that Fidel Castro is recovering.
More common reactions were to observe that Cuban people
deserve better than to learn about their leader's health and
status only via coverage that features Hugo Chavez. Cubans
tell us they are puzzled by the absence of Raul Castro in
these Fidel/Hugo productions, and are not entirely clear as
to who is really in charge of the country. Oswaldo Paya
commented that each time they trot Fidel Castro out, "...they
demonstrate how impossible a task it will be for the regime
to announce that he finally died." Cuban day-to-day life
goes on without any interruption, although with an anxiety
beneath the surface regarding how much longer this mystery
regarding Fidel Castro will go on.


5. (C) Comment: Castro's comments about world markets are

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especially ironic given that the steepest declines were in
Shanghai while Cuba's economic engagement with China is
growing. A lot of ink and paper have been consumed to
analyze whether or not Raul Castro will follow the "Chinese
model" when he's fully in charge; are they going to let a
one-day stock-price slide scare them away? Regarding "Cuba
marching on normally," it begs the question as to what passes
for normal: Continued repression of basic rights; crumbling
infrastructure; poor services in transportation and health;
and no opportunity to improve one's lot without emigrating to
the United States. "Normal" really refers to the absence of
street protests, which is largely a function of the "normal"
functioning of the state's security services.
PARMLY