Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07HAVANA1098
2007-11-27 20:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
Cable title:  

SPAIN/CUBA: DISTINCTIVE POLICY CAN LEAD TO

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM SP CU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7195
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUB #1098/01 3312046
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 272046Z NOV 07
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2532
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS IMMEDIATE
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN IMMEDIATE 0167
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID IMMEDIATE 0111
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA IMMEDIATE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA IMMEDIATE 0161
RUESDM/JTLO MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU IMMEDIATE
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 001098 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA A/S TOM SHANNON
DEPT FOR CUBA TRANSITION COORDINATOR CALEB MCCARRY
NSC FOR SENIOR ADVISOR DAN FISK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SP CU
SUBJECT: SPAIN/CUBA: DISTINCTIVE POLICY CAN LEAD TO
DISSIMILAR PERCEPTIONS


HAVANA 00001098 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 001098

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA A/S TOM SHANNON
DEPT FOR CUBA TRANSITION COORDINATOR CALEB MCCARRY
NSC FOR SENIOR ADVISOR DAN FISK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SP CU
SUBJECT: SPAIN/CUBA: DISTINCTIVE POLICY CAN LEAD TO
DISSIMILAR PERCEPTIONS


HAVANA 00001098 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY: SPANISH AMBASSADOR TO HAVANA ALONSO ZALDIVAR
TOLD US 21 NOVEMBER THE NEXT ROUND OF THE BILATERAL HUMAN
RIGHTS DIALOGUE WITH CUBA WOULD PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
EARLY 2008, WHICH HE ATTRIBUTED TO "SCHEDULING PROBLEMS."
ALONSO EXPRESSED PLEASURE AT THE DROP IN POLITICAL PRISONERS
ON THE ISLAND, WHICH HE ATTRIBUTED TO A FIRM GOC DECISION TO
AVOID ARRESTING/CONVICTING DISSIDENTS. ALONSO ZALDIVAR
COMMENTED ON "HEIGHTENED TENSION" WITHIN THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT
AND NOMENKLATURA AT PRESENT. THE REASON, ACCORDING TO
ALONSO: A WIDESPREAD AWARENESS OF THE NEED TO UNDERTAKE DEEP
REFORMS -- ESPECIALLY IN THE ECONOMIC REALM -- COMBINED WITH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH PATH TO TAKE. ALONSO CRITICIZED "THE
LACK OF A UNIFIED OPPOSITION IN CUBA (SIC)," BUT REFUSED TO
BLAME A TOTALITARIAN REGIME AS IN ANY WAY THE CAUSE. ALONSO
SAID HE DOUBTED HE WOULD STAY IN HAVANA PAST THE 2008 SPANISH
ELECTIONS, BUT EXPRESSED SATISFACTION AT HAVING SPENT THE
LAST THREE-PLUS YEARS IN A DYNAMIC, CHANGING CUBA. THAT LAST
POINT WAS ONE OF THE FEW AREAS WE FOUND OURSELVES IN
AGREEMENT WITH ALONSO ZALDIVAR. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) FOR OVER THREE HOURS IN HIS OFFICE ON 21 NOVEMBER,
SPANISH AMBASSADOR ALONSO ZALDIVAR REVIEWED WITH COM THE
STATUS OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS DIALOGUE BETWEEN CUBA AND SPAIN,
IN THE CONTEXT OF AN EXPANDING BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP. THE
AMBASSADOR ADMITTED THAT THE TWO SIDES HAVE HAD TROUBLE
FIXING A DATE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF THE DIALOGUE, BUT ALONSO
DENIED THAT THE DELAY WAS DUE TO ANY SUBSTANTIVE PROBLEMS
BETWEEN THE TWO GOVERNMENTS. "THE PROBLEM IS ONLY ONE OF
DATES," THE SPANIARD INSISTED. THE PRESS OF OTHER BUSINESS,
BOTH IN EUROPE AND IN CUBA, MEANT THAT THE TWO SIDES WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT GET TOGETHER IN MADRID UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
JANUARY 2008, AT THE EARLIEST.


3. (C) REVIEWING THE SUBSTANCE OF THE DIALOGUE, ALONSO DENIED

THAT MADRID WAS DISAPPOINTED THAT TO DATE THERE HAD BEEN
ALMOST NO FREEING OF LONG-TERM POLITICAL PRISONERS. HE
AGREED THAT ONLY UPON COMPLETION OF PRISONERS TERMS WERE
PEOPLE LEAVING JAILS. NONETHELESS, ALONSO ZALDIVAR WAS NOT
DISCOURAGED. MADRID'S AIM ALL ALONG, HE INSISTED, WAS TO SEE
A DROP IN THE OVERALL NUMBER OF POLITICAL PRISONERS. HE
ASSERTED THAT UPON HIS ARRIVAL IN CUBA IN 2004, THERE HAD
BEEN OVER 350 POLITICAL PRISONERS, WHEREAS NOW THERE ARE
"ONLY 250." MORE IMPORTANTLY, HE CONTINUED, THE REGIME HAS
AVOIDED CONVICTING ANY NEW POLITICAL PRISONERS IN HIS TIME
HERE. AGREEING THAT THE GOAL SHOULD BE FOR THERE TO BE NO
PERSON IN CUBAN JAILS FOR HIS/HER POLITICAL BELIEFS, ALONSO
ZALDIVAR VOICED CONFIDENCE THAT THE STATUS QUO OF GRADUAL
RELEASE WITH NO NEW CONVICTIONS WOULD BE SUSTAINED OVER THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE SPANISH-CUBAN DIALOGUE WAS AIMED, IN
PART, TO ENCOURAGE THAT TREND.


4. (C) SEEKING TO POINT TO OTHER "VICTORIES" PRODUCED BY THE
BILATERAL DIALOGUE, ALONSO ZALDIVAR SAID THE CUBAN
WILLINGNESS TO ALLOW THE VISIT OF SWISS CITIZEN/ UN HUMAN
RIGHTS RAPPORTEUR (FOR THE RIGHT TO FOOD) JEAN ZEIGLER IN
EARLY NOVEMBER SHOWED CUBAN OPENNESS TO UN HUMAN RIGHTS
MECHANISMS. (COMMENT: ZEIGLER, A LONG-TIME REGIME APOLOGIST
NOTORIOUS EVEN IN HIS NATIVE SWITZERLAND FOR HIS RADICAL
VIEWS, IS PREPARING A REPORT ON FOOD, BUT HAS ALREADY HEAPED
LAVISH HELPINGS OF PRAISE ON THE REGIME IN A WIDE VARIETY OF
AREAS, FOOD AND BEYOND. ALMOST ALL HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS ON
THE ISLAND HAVE PUBLICLY REJECTED HIS VISIT, NOTING, INTER
ALIA, ZEIGLER'S FAILURE TO TALK TO ANY OF THEM.) ALONSO
ZALDIVAR SAID CONFIDENTLY THAT THERE WOULD BE OTHER UN
RAPPORTEURS' VISITS IN 2008, WHICH HE TOOK AS A FURTHER SIGN
OF THE REGIME OPENING UP. HE POINTED TO THE CUBAN
AUTHORITIES' AVOIDANCE OF THE DEATH SENTENCE FOR THREE
ATTEMPTED HIJACKERS AS ANOTHER SIGN OF EVOLVING REGIME
ATTITUDES ON HUMAN RIGHTS. FINALLY, HE PRAISED THE HOLDING
OF LEGISLATIVE, PROVINCIAL AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS LATE THIS
YEAR AND EARLY NEXT AS ANOTHER SIGN OF CUBAN EVOLUTION.
(COMMENT: WE EXPRESSED SURPRISE AT ALONSO ZALDIVAR'S PRAISE
OF THE ELECTIONS, BUT THE SPANIARD WAVED OFF OUR REMARK.) IN
SHORT, MADRID SEES A CLEAR UPWARD TREND IN THE HUMAN RIGHTS
AREA, AND HOPES TO ENCOURAGE IT WITH CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT.


HAVANA 00001098 002.2 OF 003



5. (C) ONE ROOT OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEM IN CUBA, THE
SPANISH AMBASSADOR ASSERTED, WAS THE LACK OF A UNIFIED
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT. DISSIDENTS ARE NOT NUMEROUS AND ENGAGE
AS MUCH IN INFIGHTING AS THEY DO IN CONFRONTING THE REGIME.
ALONSO ZALDIVAR SAID THAT COMMON STANCES WOULD BETTER ENABLE
THE OPPOSITION TO FACE THE REGIME. HE SIDE-STEPPED ANY
ATTEMPT TO ATTRIBUTE THE OPPOSITION'S SITUATION TO THE
PRESSURE THEY FACE FROM THE REGIME, NOT DENYING IT
CATEGORICALLY BUT MINIMIZING THE IMPORTANCE OF SUCH REGIME
BEHAVIOR. (COMMENT: DISCUSSION OF THIS ISSUE WAS THE ONLY
POINT AT WHICH COM'S DISCUSSION WITH ALONSO ZALDIVAR GOT
HEATED. COM ASSERTED THAT ON THE CONTRARY, IN THE PAST YEAR,
HE HAD SEEN A REAL EXPANSION, IN NUMBERS AND IN COMPLEXITY,
OF CUBANS SPEAKING UP ON THEIR OWN BEHALF. ALONSO ZALDIVAR
DIDN'T REBUT THE POINT SPECIFICALLY; HE JUST MADE CLEAR HE
DISAGREED.)


6. (C) THE REGIME IS NOT SOFTENING ITS STANCE OVERALL, ALONSO
ZALDIVAR ADMITTED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN IMPASSE IN TERMS
OF ECONOMIC POLICY. MOST AT THE TOP OF THE REGIME RECOGNIZE
THE WIDESPREAD POPULAR DISSATISFACTION WITH LIVING
CONDITIONS, HE CONCEDED. THE PROBLEM IS THE BLOCKAGE BY
HARD-LINE ELEMENTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION
STEPS. ALONSO ZALDIVAR DID NOT WANT TO LAY ALL THE
RESISTENCE AT THE FOOT OF AILING DICTATOR FIDEL CASTRO.
INSTEAD, HE POINTED TO YEARS OF WIDESPREAD ENGRAINED
COMMITMENT TO STATE-RUN AND CENTRALIZING POLICIES BY A WHOLE
CADRE OF REGIME OFFICIALS, ECONOMISTS AND ADMINISTRATORS. HE
REJECTED ANY IDEA THAT THOSE ELEMENTS WERE SIMPLY PROTECTING
THEIR OWN PERSONAL INTERESTS. "NO; THEY REALLY BELIEVE," THE
SPANISH AMBASSADOR INSISTED. HE DESCRIBED A DAY-LONG MEETING
HE HAD RECENTLY HAD WITH SUCH OFFICIALS, WHERE HE SAID THAT
LESSONS DRAWN FROM THE SPANISH AND PORTUGUESE DEMOCRATIZATION
PROCESSES WERE MET WITH SKEPTICISM BY HIS AUDIENCE. HE AGAIN
CAUTIONED AGAINST ATTRIBUTING ALL RESISTENCE TO REFORM TO
FIDEL HIMSELF, AND WARNED THAT EVEN WHEN FIDEL FINALLY DIES,
THERE WILL STILL BE ELEMENTS WHO WANT TO CLING TO A TOTALLY
STATE-AND PARTY-CONTROLLED ECONOMY AND SOCIETY. (COMMENT:
ALONSO ZALDIVAR CHOSE NOT TO NAME THOSE CONSERVATIVE
ELEMENTS. OTHER DIPLOMATIC AND CUBAN OBSERVERS GENERALLY
POINT TO SUCH FIGURES AS COMMUNICATIONS MINISTER RAMIRO
VALDEZ, HEALTH MINISTER JOSE RAMON BALAGUER AND COUNCIL OF
STATE MEMBER JOSE RAMON MACHADO AS THREE WHO CARRY THE TORCH
FOR ORTHODOXY WITHIN THE TOP RULING CIRCLES.)


7. (C) ALONSO ZALDIVAR SAID THAT THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WAITING FOR ECONOMIC REFORM MEASURES -- HINTED AT SO CLEARLY,
HE SAID, IN RAUL'S JULY 26 SPEECH -- HAD GENERATED REAL
TENSIONS WITHIN THE TOP RULING CIRCLE AND, MORE GENERALLY,
THROUGHOUT THE NOMENKLATURA. ALONSO ZALDIVAR SAID HE COULD
NOT PUT HIS FINGER ON THE SPECIFIC CAUSE, BUT THERE IS "A
REAL NERVOUSNESS AT THE TOP" AND AT LEVELS JUST BELOW THAT.
COM NOTED THAT THE FRENETIC BEHAVIOR OF VENEZUELAN LEADER
HUGO CHAVEZ, AND THE LATTER'S CONSTANT RHETORICAL REFERENCES
AND VISITS TO HAVANA, KEPT PEOPLE OFF BALANCE, AND THE
SPANISH AMBASSADOR AGREED. CHAVEZ IS NOT POPULAR AT ANY
LEVEL OF CUBAN SOCIETY, ALONSO ZALDIVAR OPINED, BUT
VENEZUELAN INTERESTS HAVE BECOME TOO IMPORTANT TO CUBA TO BE
ABLE TO IGNORE THE NEIGHBOR. BEYOND CHAVEZ, HOWEVER, THE
CONTINUING ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DIFFICULTIES OF THE REGIME ARE
CLEARLY FELT BY CUBANS AT ALL LEVELS, AND THAT IN ITSELF
GENERATES TENSIONS.


8. (C) COMMENT: THIS WAS OUR FIRST EXTENDED DISCUSSION WITH
ALONSO ZALDIVAR IN SOME TIME, AND WE WILL KEEP UP THE
CONTACT, BUT IT WILL NOT BE EASY. ALONSO ZALDIVAR SAID HE
WOULD CERTAINLY LEAVE HAVANA IN THE SPRING IF THE RULING
SOCIALISTS LOST THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS, BUT EVEN IF ZAPATERO
WAS RETURNED TO OFFICE, HE THOUGHT HE HAD DONE WHAT HE HAD
SET OUT TO DO. WE FOUND HIM LESS CONCERNED WITH SHOWING EU
SOLIDARITY AND MORE FRANK IN OFFERING EXPLANATIONS AND
ANALYSES THAT PUT THE REGIME IN A SYMPATHETIC LIGHT. WE HAD
HERETOFORE FOUND ALONSO ZALDIVAR TO BE ONE OF THE MORE KEEN
OBSERVERS OF THE CUBAN SCENE, EVEN WITH HIS ADMITTED BIASES,
BUT ON THIS OCCASION, MUCH OF HIS PREVIOUS PERSPICACITY WAS
LACKING. ALONSO ZALDIVAR HAS CLEARLY BOUGHT INTO THE REGIME
LINE ON HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY ISSUES, AND TO THE EXTENT
HE CAN, IS PUSHING HIS EU COLLEAGUES IN THAT DIRECTION.

HAVANA 00001098 003.2 OF 003


PARMLY