FIRST ROUND OF CUBAN ELECTIONS: "IT'S THE PROCESS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 001001

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2012
TAGS: CU PGOV PHUM PINS PREL
SUBJECT: FIRST ROUND OF CUBAN ELECTIONS: "IT'S THE PROCESS,
STUPID"


Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The first round of elections in Cuba
covering only municipalities proceeded uneventfully as
expected on October 21. A leading dissident, Guillermo
Farinas, was detained in Villa Clara when he attempted to
vote (to vote NO in his case). Two election observers, one
Czech and the other Slovak where detained and then deported
last night. Their ambassadors were informed after the fact.
A second round (if needed) for the municipal elections will
be held Sunday, October 28. Elections for the National
Assembly, which should be held simultaneously with municipal
elections, have not yet been scheduled. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) The quiet Sunday dawn in Havana was shattered
yesterday when aircraft flew low passes over the city several
times. As aircraft of any kind are never/never seen or heard
over Havana, this display may have been designed to get
sleepy voters out of bed and off to the polls early. In
most countries in the hemisphere there would be no mistaking
the final days of an election as every vertical surface would
be plastered with posters, and vehicles with loudspeakers
playing patriotic music and repeating campaign slogans would
be all over the streets. Not in Cuba. If one were not
reminded at the last minute it would be easy to forget that
there was an election. In this particular case the election
was round one of municipal elections that will put upwards of
15,000 people in "elected" municipal office throughout the
island. A second round (if needed) for the municipal
elections will take place on Sunday, October 28. Unlike
elections for the National Assembly, ostensibly Cuba's ruling
institution, in the case of the municipal elections there was
actually more than one candidate for the positions.
Candidates had been selected by a show of hands in
neighborhood meetings earlier in the month. But there was no
campaigning, nor any indication of where a candidate might
stand on municipal issues, arguably the most directly
important to voters throughout the world.


3. (C) This lack of interest in the election results was, of
course, by design. As Fidel Castro himself pointed out in
one of his "Reflections" columns in the Communist Party daily
Granma on October 20, "Cuban elections are the antithesis of
those that take place in the U.S." As Castro noted, here
there are no expensive campaigns that favor rich candidates
or those in the pay of special interests. In Cuba, elections
are peaceful, orderly, and have an excellent turnout (well
over 90 percent according to the Cuban press). The regime's
position is: "Who needs to know where the candidates stand or
what they will do when elected? As long as there is an
orderly voting process, true democracy is served." Cuban
state TV announcers made breathless commentaries from polling
places throughout the country about how well the process had
gone as viewers watched voters drop ballots into boxes
guarded by two uniformed school children who saluted each
vote. However, in almost an hour of post-election coverage
there was not one mention of who had been elected, what
issues were being placed before the people, or what the
election might say about the future of Cuba. Man on the
street interviews echoed Castro,s words as one after another
"random" interviewee declared the Cuban system the best in
the world because there was no need for messy campaigns and
voting is quick and easy. It's hard to agonize over a vote
when there is only one candidate, or just a series of names
without platforms or other identification.


4. (C) As far as we could tell from visits around Havana,
while voters may have turned out as reported in the press
(the same uniformed school kids will visit your house if you
don't show up to vote by mid-afternoon and ask what the
problem is),they were inspired much more by the return of
beautiful sunny weather after several days of rain than they
were by the elections. Many of our dissident contacts--who
obviously have especially strong views on the issue--dismiss
the entire process as a farce, but we have yet to meet anyone
who thinks their vote truly has an impact.


5. (C) One dissident who thought he might have an impact by
voting was Guillermo Farinas. Farinas believes that Cubans
should tell the regime what they feel by voting, and voting
"NO" to any of the candidates. There are actually several
schools of thought among the dissidents about the elections,
but most disagree with Farinas. The others argue that a "NO"

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vote is a waste of time as the regime knows that there is
opposition, and that any vote that is not a positive one for
a listed candidate is invalid. (NOTE: As one individual
pointed out to us, if a candidate gets only one positive vote
out of one hundred cast, they will win with 100 percent of
the valid/valid vote). Many argue that the best way to defy
the regime is not to show up to the elections at all,
regardless of the pressure to do so. For most Cubans, this
gesture appears not to be worth the potential risk to their
jobs and whatever privileges they have. Still, the regime
apparently thought Farinas, concepts were a threat to the
process. He was detained on his way to he polls, his
identification card was taken from him, and he was escorted
home and left there under guard. When the polls closed, his
identification was returned to him and he was allowed to
leave.


6. (C) Even more curiously given how smooth the outward
process went, friends of Farinas reported that two election
observers, Czech Pavel Res and Slovak Ptr Novotny, both of
the European Network of Electoral Monitoring, who had been at
a press conference at Farinas, house in Villa Clara the
night before the elections, had disappeared, and it was
feared they had been detained. Dissident leader Martha
Beatriz Roque called the Czech and Slovak ambassadors to
inform them. Neither ambassador was aware that the two
observers were in country. However, after checking with
their capitals, they contacted the Cuban immigration service
and were told that Cuban authorities had no knowledge of the
two. Nevertheless, on October 22, Roque called to say that
the two had indeed been deported overnight. Their
ambassadors were informed after the fact from Europe.


7. (C) COMMENT: The conduct of this round of municipal
elections is a good bellwether of how democratic Cuba is at
the moment. By and large, the meaningless elections are
treated as a ho-hum affair by the average Cuba. One Cuban
commented to us on Sunday afternoon on the confusion among
most of his neighbors, who were expected to vote approval of
people many had never even heard of before. However, one
future election may be noteworthy in the way that formal
Kremlin portraits used to be. As yet, the list of candidates
for the National Assembly has yet to be produced (only one
candidate per seat in that election). Normally, the election
of the National Assembly would take place together with the
final municipal elections. Once "elected" the National
Assembly meets twice a year (usually for a day each time) to
approve formally all laws dictated by the Council of State.
The Council of State, including the President and other
senior leaders, is itself named by the Assembly together with
the Council of Ministers. Many in the dissident community
believe that the reason there has been no movement on
electing a new National Assembly is that the regime has not
yet figured out what to do about Fidel Castro, who normally
would be put up as a candidate for the Assembly, which would
then elect him President. Some have speculated that if, in
the end, the cast of characters put up for election to the
National Assembly does not differ from those of past
elections in any significant way, it will be an indication
that the Fidelistas, the so-called "Taliban" wing of the
regime, remains dominant, and that real change will be even
more distant. These analysts believe that such a result,
while meaningless from an electoral standpoint, will drive
many Cubans into greater despair about the future.

WILLIAMS