AMENDMENT 18

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SIPDIS

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STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: AMENDMENT 18

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren under 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (U) In a choreographed parliamentary session on September
18, ZANU-PF and the MDC agreed to the adoption of Amendment
18 to the Constitution which will harmonize presidential and
parliamentary elections, expand the size of Parliament, and
mandate Parliament to elect the president in the event of a
vacancy. Agreement on Amendment 18 is seen as part of the
SADC mediation process; in exchange for its position on
Amendment 18, the MDC expects to win concessions in a final
SADC agreement that will involve electoral reform, reform of
repressive legislation, continued negotiation on a new
constitution, and a date for elections. End Summary.

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The Amendment 18 agreement
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2. (U) The proposed amendment, as read to Parliament by
Patrick Chinimasa, Minister of Justice and ZANU-PF SADC
negotiator, provides changes as follows:
--a reduction in the presidential term from six to five
years, which will permit harmonized presidential,
parliamentary, and local elections next year;
--an increase in the number of House of Assembly members from
150 to 210, all of whom will be elected;
--an increase in the number of Senators from 60 to 93--60
will be directly elected (six per province),10 will be
provincial governors appointed by the president, 16 will be
provincial chiefs appointed by the president and deputy
president from all provinces except Harare and Bulawayo, and
seven will be appointed by the president and will represent
special interests;
--Parliament will elect the president in the event of a
vacancy;
--The Electoral Commission will delimit parliamentary and
local constituencies.


3. (U) In his remarks, Chinimasa stated that Amendment 18
was part of a two-track process. The other track was the
continuing SADC negotiations.


4. (U) MDC Anti-Senate Vice-President Thokozani Khupe
(Tsvangirai's deputy) responded that as a "confidence
building" measure in the context of the SADC negotiations,
the MDC would not stand in the way of the passage of
Amendment 18. She noted the MDC had received assurances that
negotiations were ongoing on critical issues such as a Bill
of Rights, independent electoral commission, and overhaul of
restrictive security, electoral, and media laws; and
emphasized that the MDC regarded the outcome of Amendment 18
"as the first step towards a holistic resolution of the
national crisis." During her presentation, Khupe evoked
loud--and knowledgeable--laughter from both sides when she
remarked that Zimbabwean families were divided between
ZANU-PF and the MDC, between ZANU-PF and ZANU-PF, and between
the MDC and the MDC.


5. (U) MDC Pro-Senate Secretary-General Welshman Ncube and
Pro-Senate Vice-President Gibson Sibanda followed Khupe.
Ncube stated that both factions of the MDC had caucused
together over Amendment 18, and continued to negotiate as one
entity in the SADC mediation. In contrast to Khupe, who said

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the MDC would not stand in the way of the adoption of the
amendment, Ncube expressed positive support. Both Ncube and
Sibanda struck a conciliatory note, highlighting the
importance of dialogue between the two parties, progress made
to date, and expressing hope that agreement on Amendment 18
represented an "historic moment" in finding solitions to
Zimbabwe's crisis. Ncube acknowledged that civil society,
particularly the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) had
long resisted piecemeal change to the Constitution. Seeking
to assuage critics, he said Amendment 18 was an interim step;
negotiations would continue on a new constitution.

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Zimbabwean Reaction
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6. (U) The Herald, the government-controlled daily,
trumpeted in a banner headline, "ZANU-PF, MDC agree to amend
Constitution". Demonstrating that all is not roses, a
companion article, implying that the MDC was beholden to the
West, stated that Tsvangirai had consulted the British
ambassador to Zimbabwe before meeting last weekend with South
African president Mbeki to discuss the SADC process. The
article quoted an International Crisis Group (ICG) report
that the MDC was bitterly divided and unable to mount a
viable opposition against ZANU-PF.


7. (C) Eldred Masanangure, a University of Zimbabwe
political scientist considered an objective analyst, told us
he had expected an explosive clash between the parties over
Amendment 18. He thought the agreement on the amendment was
a significant milestone in post-2000 politics. It would be
"irresponsible" to think the SADC negotiations, of which
Amendment 18 was a part, represented business as usual.

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Next Steps
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8. (C) We understand from MDC sources that negotiations will
continue on reform of the Access to Information and
Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA),the Public Order and
Security Act (POSA),a new electoral law, and a new
constitution. Also to be agreed upon is the timing of next
year's election. The MDC realizes it is unprepared for
elections. And assuming agreement on reforms is achieved, it
needs time to benefit from these reforms in terms of
organizing and unrestricted campaigning. Therefore, the MDC
would like a delay of at least six months of the elections
now scheduled for March. Mugabe, on the other hand, realizes
his advantage, and would like the elections to proceed as
scheduled, although he might agree to a postponement to June
in order to run with an improved economy.

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Comment
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9. (C) Zimbabweans on all sides are tired, and there is a
marked--and unusual--sense of optimism across the political
divide. But the reality is that Amendment 18 is a bare
beginning and much remains to be done. We don't for a minute
think that Mugabe will make concessions he doesn't think will
ultimately benefit him. For now he believes he can allow
constitutional and legislative reform, and still win the
election and gain legitimacy in the process. The MDC has to
ask whether an agreement on paper will translate to basic

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freedoms on the ground. Will there be a truly independent
electoral commission that will allow people throughout the
country to freely register? Will it be able to organize and
campaign throughout the country without interference from the
government or its surrogates? Will the government use food
aid to coerce voters?


10. (C) For now, the SADC process represents the best hope
for change in Zimbabwe. Perhaps even more important than an
actual agreement is the implementation of an agreement. It
is critical that any SADC outcome provide for implementation
and monitoring.


DHANANI