JONATHAN MOYO ON MUGABE AND SUCCESSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000852

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S.HILL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: JONATHAN MOYO ON MUGABE AND SUCCESSION

REF: A) HARARE 795 B) PRETORIA 3075

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren under 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) President Robert Mugabe has throat cancer and has
been advised by his physician that campaigning will be
dangerous to his health. At this point, Mugabe nevertheless
intends to seek endorsement at a ZANU-PF Extraordinary
Congress in December and run for election in March. He has
stated his successor would be Emmerson Mnangagwa, and that he
would step down after winning reelection. He has instructed
ZANU-PF negotiators Patrick Chinimasa and Nicholas Goche to
make concessions in the SADC talks, believing he can beat a
fractured and weak MDC in a free and fair election and
thereby gain legitimacy. The Congress could be problematic
for Mugabe. Shut out of succession, the Mujuru faction is
planning to deny Mugabe the ZANU-PF endorsement and put
forward its own candidate. Meanwhile, MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai and Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono are holding

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talks about establishing a third party to contest the
election. End Summary.

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Mugabe Fights On
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2. (C) Long rumored, ZANU-PF has called an Extraordinary
Congress for December. Jonathan Moyo told polecon chief
September 16 that ZANU-PF was not required to call a
Congress; it could have held an annual conference to discuss
ZANU-PF business. As First Secretary of the party, Mugabe
would be the presumptive nominee. A Congress is the unique
ZANU-PF proceeding to change the top candidates. Mugabe was
convening the Congress, according to Moyo, to get a public
endorsement of his candidacy, and to possibly replace
Vice-President Joice Mujuru with Oppah Muchinguri, the
Minister of Women's Affairs, Gender, and Community
Development. (Note. Muchinguri is a strong Mugabe
supporter; women, along with war veterans, have recently been
his core constituency. End Note.) Moyo also told us that
Mugabe had indicated within ZANU-PF that he would step down
after winning reelection; his choice to succeed him was
Emmerson Mnangagwa. (Moyo doubted he would voluntarily step
down after winning reelection.) Mugabe was considering
naming Mnangagwa Minister of State Security in place of
Didymus Mutasa.


3. (C) Moyo said that in calling a Congress Mugabe was
playing a dangerous game. While he might gain a strong
endorsement from the party going into next year's election,
the possibility existed he could be replaced as ZANU-PF's
nominee. Facing defeat in the succession battle, the Mujuru
faction was now mounting a challenge to Mugabe by attempting
to garner support in the provinces in anticipation of the
December Congress


4. (C) Moyo said Mugabe was determined to run for reelection
against the advice of his physician. He had throat cancer;
campaigning would be difficult and imperil his health.

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Mugabe's Motivation
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5. (C) Moyo said Mugabe was determined to leave office after
being reelected--and not after having been defeated as was
Kenneth Kaunda in Zambia. Further, he was aware of charges
that he had stolen elections in the past. Therefore, he had
instructed negotiators Chinimasa and Goche to make
concessions to the MDC in the SADC negotiations in order to
create conditions for a fair election. The CIO had informed
him that the MDC was fractured and weak and that he could
prevail in such an election. Winning under these conditions
would give him the legitimacy and respect heretofore lacking.

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Uphill Struggle for the MDC
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6. (C) Given ZANU-PF structures on the village, district,
and provincial levels, Moyo believed the MDC would have an
uphill struggle, even in a fair election. The MDC would have
no chance, unless it worked as a coalition.

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A Third Way
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7. (C) Talks about a "third way" (Ref B) have intensified
over the last several months, averred Moyo. The MDC was
weak--it would not even be able to field candidates in all
local and parliamentary constituencies in the next
elections--and anti-ZANU-PF politicians were looking for an
alternative. Moyo said that MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai had
been talking with Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono about a
third party that Gono would lead as presidential candidate.
Gono and Tsvangirai were from the same village and had
maintained a relationship over the years. Moyo continued
that Tsvangirai realized he could not win; his payback for
backing Gono would be financial security and a position as
elder statesman in the event of a Gono win.


8. (C) According to Moyo, the new party would be called the
"New Patriotic Front." Its core would be the existing MDC
and disaffected ZANU-PF parliamentarians primarily drawn from
the Mujuru faction.

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Comment
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9. (C) Moyo's assertion that Mugabe has throat cancer is an
elaboration on Gono's indication to us (Ref A) that Mugabe's
physician had advised him to step down for health reasons.
Moyo and Gono are close, and it is possible that Moyo's
information on this subject comes from Gono. While we can't
confirm Moyo's claim, we have no reason to disbelieve it.


10. (C) The December Congress, and the weeks leading up to
it, will be critical in determining the viability of an
internal challenge to Mugabe. If Mugabe continues to exert
his authority over ZANU-PF, however, a more likely challenge
may be an MDC-Mujuru faction coalition. We question whether
Gideon Gono would emerge as the standard bearer. He is
widely seen--whether or not fairly--as responsible for
Zimbabwe's disastrous economic policies and he has no natural
constituency. This begs the question of who else could step
forward as a third party leader.


11. (C) An unlikely scenario at this point in time is an MDC

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electoral victory. Even in a relatively free and fair
election, the MDC is confronted by internal divisions and
country-wide ZANU-PF structures. With an expected SADC
agreement leveling the playing field, the MDC would still
need time to organize and campaign. Elections are scheduled
in March. We have heard rumors Mugabe would let them slide
until June in order to get his economic house in order before
the elections, but it is questionable whether this delay
would significantly benefit the MDC.


12. (C) While there are a number of different scenarios, the
odds now are that Mugabe will win reelection next year. That
said, the political situation is extremely fluid.



DHANANI