ZANU-PF INSIDER EDDIE ZVOGBO, JR. ON CURRENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000771

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S.HILL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN AND L.DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF INSIDER EDDIE ZVOGBO, JR. ON CURRENT
SITUATION

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren under 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) ZANU-PF politician and businessman Eddison Zvogbo,
Jr. believes President Robert Mugabe is on track to stand for
reelection next year. While many in ZANU-PF would like to
see Mugabe go sooner rather than later, internal ZANU-PF
opponents are afraid to directly challenge him and are
focused on succession. On elections, the SADC mediation is
unlikely to result in a leveling of the playing field; it is
not in ZANU-PF's interest to make concessions. There is
growing dissatisfaction with ZANU-PF in the rural areas, but
the party's governmental machinery and patronage should allow
it to maintain its traditional rural support. ZANU-PF is
concerned about the MDC, particularly in light of the failing
economy, but is buoyed by the MDC split. Western sanctions
are ineffective, except as against children of ZANU-PF
leders. End Summary.


2. (C) Polecon chief met wih Zvogbo on August 28. Zvogbo,
the namesake of he deceased ZANU-PF heavyweight and
prominent Muabe critic, is a Masvingo businessman. Althoughcritical of Mugabe
and the party, he has long-staning
business and political roots within ZANU-PF ad intends to
run for Parliament next year. He is allied with the Mujuru
faction.

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Mugabe on Track
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3. (C) Zvogbo told us that opposition to Mugabe within
ZANU-PF continues below the surface, particularly on the part
of the Mujuru faction. Many in ZANU-PF would like to see
Mugabe leave the scene, but nobody was sufficiently
courageous to force the issue. Therefore, the jockeying
behind the scenes was directed at succession.


4. (C) According to Zvogbo, Mugabe had let it be known
within the party that he intended to step down after next
year's elections as a way of deflecting pressure to get him
to leave office before the elections. Zvogbo was skeptical
Mugabe would do so; he had made similar promises in the past.


5. (C) Confirming what has been reported in the media and
what others had told us, Zvogbo said Mugabe still had not
received official backing for his candidacy from ZANU-PF. A
party conference or congress in December would be designed to
provide this. Zvogbo opined that ZANU-PF would be stronger
in an election with another presidential candidate--assuming
a united party. But without Mugabe as head, the party might
fracture. Mugabe and his internal opponents knew this;
therefore, absent a complete collapse of the economy, it was
unlikely Mugabe would be replaced as presidential candidate.

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ZANU-PF Likely to Prevail in Elections
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6. (C) Zvogbo discounted the current SADC mediation. Noting
that an announced goal of the mediation was free and fair
elections, he rhetorically asked why ZANU-PF would want the
process to succeed.

HARARE 00000771 002 OF 002




7. (C) Zvogbo commented that ZANU-PF's traditional rural
support had been weakened by the scarcity of goods resulting
from government-imposed price controls. Nevertheless, people
in rural areas, particularly Mashonaland, traditionally
looked to government as their benefactor. ZANU-PF candidates
would attempt to use governmental structures to provide food
and other necessities to the rural areas in advance of
elections to solidity ZANU-PF support. Through delimitation
of additional constituencies to be formed pursuant to
Constitutional Amendment 18, ZANU-PF expected to increase its
influence in these areas. (Note: The draft amendment would
increase lower house districts from 150 to 210, almost all in
rural areas. End Note)


8. (C) As an example of the patronage available to ZANU-PF
candidates, Zvogbo said that the Grain Marketing Board was
providing maize to him that he would personally deliver to
his prospective constituents in Masvingo. In light of the
scarcity of fuel and reduced public transportation, he was
also contemplating purchase of a bus to provide
transportation from Masvingo's rural areas to the town of
Masvingo.


9. (C) Given the current economic crisis, ZANU-PF was
concerned about the upcoming elections even with its power to
mobilize voters in the rural areas. Therefore, the MDC's
continued split was "manna from heaven." ZANU-PF did regret,
however, that the Mutambara faction was not stronger. If the
two factions ultimately fielded rival candidates in the
elections, he thought ZANU-PF would make some gains in
Matabeleland.


10. (C) Parenthetically, Zvogbo noted that price controls
had been a disaster and that ZANU-PF had "shot itself in the
foot." Anybody with a modicum of sense could have known what
the result would be, added Zvogbo. And almost everyone in
government knew what was necessary to turn the economy
around--and knew that sanctions had no effect on the economy.

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Effect of Sanctions
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10. (C) Zvogbo stated that financial sanctions had limited
effect on ZANU-PF targets. Those individuals with
businesses, with the support of the government patronage
system, were still doing well. Sanctions did bite hard when
imposed on children; ZANU-PF bigwigs were personally affected
when their offspring could not study in the West.

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Comment
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11. (C) ZANU-PF has historically won elections--albeit
rigged--on the strength of its rural support. As of now, the
unanswered questions are whether the economy will deteriorate
to the extent that traditional ZANU-PF rural voters, despite
the GOZ's electoral machinery, look to the MDC as a source of
salvation, and whether the MDC can organize in these areas.
End Comment.
DHANANI