JONATHAN MOYO ON ZANU-PF TURMOIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000463

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S.HILL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: JONATHAN MOYO ON ZANU-PF TURMOIL

REF: A) HARARE 448 B) HARARE 326

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) Former Information Minister and Presidential
Spokesman Jonathan Moyo told poleconchief May 24 that
President Robert Mugabe continues to face internal ZANU-PF
opposition, primarily from the Mujuru faction, both in the
GOZ cabinet and in the provinces. There is also a split
within Mugabe's inner circle as to whether to call an
Extraordinary Congress later this year. Acknowledging past
false hopes that Mugabe would be forced to leave office, Moyo
argued that a constellation of factors*economic collapse,
internal opposition, the SADC-Mbeki initiative, and the
president,s age and declining health*truly imperil
Mugabe,s attempt to cling to office. End Summary.

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Opposition in Cabinet and the Central Committee
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2. (C) Moyo recalled that the March 30 ZANU-PF Central
Committee meeting members had agreed to harmonize
parliamentary and presidential elections in 2010 and had
rushed through an endorsement of Mugabe as the party's
presidential candidate. The Central Committee also backed an
increase in the size of Parliament, selection of Senators
based on proportional representation (an effort by Mugabe,
according to Moyo, to increase his patronage),and election
of a new president by the ruling party's parliamentary
members in the event of the incumbent president dying,
becoming incapacitated, or leaving office. (Ref B)


3. (C) At a subsequent Cabinet meeting to consider the
Central Committee's actions, Moyo said that the Mujuru
faction, in indirect opposition to Mugabe, objected to both
the proportional Senate representation and presidential
election recommendations as undemocratic and unfair. Mugabe,
engaging in what Moyo termed the "Stalinist fiction of the
supremacy of the party," responded that the cabinet was
subordinate to the Central Committee, and the Committees
decisions should stand. He was unable to impose his will on
the Cabinet and the matters were referred back to the Central
Committee.


4. (C) At an extraordinary session of the Central Committee
on May 4, according to Moyo, members agreed to direct Senate
elections vice selection based on proportional representation
but were unable to reach a decision on the selection of a
replacement president. Moyo commented that the inability of
Mugabe to get the issues agreed upon at the March 30 Central
Committee to Parliament for approval was a clear sign of
erosion of support for the president.

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An Extraordinary ZANU-PF Congress This Year?
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5. (C) Because of less than solid support for Mugabe and
because endorsement of Mugabe was rushed through the Central
Committee on March 30, Moyo said ZANU-PF Commissar Elliot
Manyika had publicly proposed an Extraordinary Congress later
this year to bolster support for Mugabe and endorse him for

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president. Yet even within Mugabe's inner circle there was
opposition, principally from Minister of State Security
Didymus Mutasa. Moyo thought Mutasa was piqued at not having
been consulted, hence his opposition. Whatever the reason,
he opined, there were fissures even among those close to
Mugabe.

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Trouble in the Provinces
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6. (C) Moyo said that in preparation for an Extraordinary
Congress, Manyika had planned to elect new ZANU-PF executive
committees in several provinces. As we reported (Ref A),
Mugabe loyalists were defeated in Masvingo and were unable
even to stage an election in Bulawayo. Moyo added that
within the last couple of weeks, they had also been defeated
in Mashonaland East. He predicted the same result if
elections took place soon, as planned in Manicaland. Moyo
stated these provincial elections have demonstrated the
Mujuru faction is still strong and capable of effectively
opposing Mugabe. Moyo, an erstwhile Emmerson Mnangagwa ally,
also thought that by Mnangagwa had tactically erred by
supporting Mugabe; as Mugabe had become weaker, so had
Mnangagwa.

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A Third Force Still Possible
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7. (C) Referring to an earlier discussion with the
Ambassador (Ref B),Moyo said strategic discussions were
still ongoing regarding an outside candidate such as Gideon
Gono, Strive Masiyawa, or Simba Makoni. Moyo said the most
likely scenario for the emergence of such a candidate would
involve a ZANU-PF split, probably precipitated by opposition
of the Mujuru faction. For the moment, he, Gono, and the
others, would await developments.

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The End of Mugabe
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8. (C) Moyo noted the difficulty of predicting Zimbabwean
politics. He also acknowledged wrong predictions over the
last several years that the Mugabe era was near its end.
Nevertheless, he argued that there is an historic convergence
of events that make the case for Mugabe,s exit in the near
term: 1) Mugabe was rebuffed in his efforts to extend his
term until 2010*the kind of rebuke that had never occurred
before; 2) the disputes within ZANU-PF have become public,
evidencing Mugabe's inability to maintain party solidarity;
3) Mugabe is 83 years old and incapable of maintaining his
legendary control on the party and individuals around him;
and 4) inflation is spiraling out of control, the economy is
crashing, and the GOZ and Mugabe have no plan for economic
recovery. Moyo also believed the Mbeki-SADC initiative was
creating pressures. Whereas Mugabe first trumpeted the
initiative as an African response, claiming at the same time
that U.S. and European pressure represented inappropriate
efforts at regime change, Mbeki has been in fact, albeit
quietly, challenging Mugabe and his efforts to remain in
power.

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Comment
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9. (C) Moyo, a former cabinet minister and ally of Mugabe,
is now an opponent and his views should be read in that
light. Nevertheless, he maintains good contacts within the
GOZ and ruling party, and his renditions of events have
proved accurate in the past. He is also a shrewd analyst.
As he acknowledges, predictions are just that, but his
opinions are certainly worthy of consideration as he retains
excellent contacts within the senior ranks of ZANU-PF.

DELL