Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07HARARE133
2007-02-21 11:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:
ZANU-PF WINS BY-ELECTION AMID LOW TURNOUT
how-toVZCZCXRO3006 RR RUEHMR RUEHRN DE RUEHSB #0133/01 0521142 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 211142Z FEB 07 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1145 INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1478 RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1334 RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1482 RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0173 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0743 RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1108 RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1536 RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 3932 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1305 RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 1961 RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1699
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000133
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS BY-ELECTION AMID LOW TURNOUT
REF: REFTEL: HARARE 115
Classified By: Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz
under Section 1.5 b/d
-------
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000133
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS BY-ELECTION AMID LOW TURNOUT
REF: REFTEL: HARARE 115
Classified By: Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz
under Section 1.5 b/d
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) ZANU-PF retained the Chiredzi South parliamentary
seat in the by-election held February 17 with 66.7 percent of
the vote. The anti-Senate MDC candidate garnered 21.1
percent of the tally, while the pro-Senate flag bearer came
in fourth behind the UPP candidate. Voting day was peaceful,
but characterized by widespread voter apathy with turnout at
29.4 percent, well below the figure in the March 2005 general
election. In addition to voter apathy, ZANU-PF,s victory
was also due in large part to pre-election intimidation and
manipulation of voters (reftel). That said, the MDC split
also contributed to voter apathy and made ZANU-PF's victory
easier than it could have been. End Summary.
--------------
ZANU-PF Retains Rural MP Seat
--------------
2. (U) In proportions that closely mirrored the March 2005
parliamentary election in Chiredzi South, ZANU-PF candidate
Kilian Gwanesta won the poll on February 17 with 10,401 votes
out of 15,603 total cast. The anti-Senate MDC candidate
garnered 3,300 votes and the UPP candidate won 896.
Meanwhile, the pro-Senate MDC candidate came in fourth with
only 674 votes.
3. (SBU) Local ZESN election observers and poloff,
accredited as an observer, noted calm on election day with no
reports of violence or outright intimidation. Electoral
officials appeared generally professional. However, voter
turnout at 29.4 percent was extremely low, down more than
5,000 voters as compared to the March 2005 parliamentary
election. Poloff observed only one polling station in the
morning with a line of voters and many polling stations were
virtually deserted all day.
--------------
Another Victory for Local Observers
--------------
4. (U) Local observation group ZESN once again used the
election to gain experience and to refine their parallel vote
count methodology. ZESN several conducted pre-election
visits to the area and on election day fielded 45 accredited
observers, giving the far-flung and infrastructure-poor
constituency sufficient coverage. Through a mix of mobile
and stationary teams, ZESN collected results from a sampling
of polling stations that, through statistical extrapolation,
closely mirrored and confirmed the official tabulation.
5. (SBU) In addition, ZESN produced a timely and well
written report on the by-election. The report noted that
that the government and ruling party had heavily tilted the
playing field in their favor through pre-election
intimidation and manipulation. In particular, ZESN noted
reports of the government using food aid to influence voting.
ZESN attributed the apathy to a number of factors, including
the choice of an ethnic Karanga rather than a local Shangaani
to represent ZANU-PF as well as the inability of the two MDC
factions to agree on a single opposition candidate.
HARARE 00000133 002 OF 002
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) The Chiredzi South election demonstrates anew that
what is most important in determining electoral outcomes in
Zimbabwe is not necessarily cheating on election day but
rather ZANU-PF,s ability to use government resources to
intimidate and manipulate voters in the run-up to the
election. This is particularly problematic in by-elections,
when the government and ruling party can concentrate
government resources on a single parliamentary constituency.
That said, the MDC played into the ruling party's hands again
in this election, as was the case in the rural council
elections last year, by running multiple candidates.
ZANU-PF's choice of an ethnic Karanga to run for the seat
created an opportunity for the opposition. They failed to
take advantage of it.
SCHULTZ
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS BY-ELECTION AMID LOW TURNOUT
REF: REFTEL: HARARE 115
Classified By: Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz
under Section 1.5 b/d
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) ZANU-PF retained the Chiredzi South parliamentary
seat in the by-election held February 17 with 66.7 percent of
the vote. The anti-Senate MDC candidate garnered 21.1
percent of the tally, while the pro-Senate flag bearer came
in fourth behind the UPP candidate. Voting day was peaceful,
but characterized by widespread voter apathy with turnout at
29.4 percent, well below the figure in the March 2005 general
election. In addition to voter apathy, ZANU-PF,s victory
was also due in large part to pre-election intimidation and
manipulation of voters (reftel). That said, the MDC split
also contributed to voter apathy and made ZANU-PF's victory
easier than it could have been. End Summary.
--------------
ZANU-PF Retains Rural MP Seat
--------------
2. (U) In proportions that closely mirrored the March 2005
parliamentary election in Chiredzi South, ZANU-PF candidate
Kilian Gwanesta won the poll on February 17 with 10,401 votes
out of 15,603 total cast. The anti-Senate MDC candidate
garnered 3,300 votes and the UPP candidate won 896.
Meanwhile, the pro-Senate MDC candidate came in fourth with
only 674 votes.
3. (SBU) Local ZESN election observers and poloff,
accredited as an observer, noted calm on election day with no
reports of violence or outright intimidation. Electoral
officials appeared generally professional. However, voter
turnout at 29.4 percent was extremely low, down more than
5,000 voters as compared to the March 2005 parliamentary
election. Poloff observed only one polling station in the
morning with a line of voters and many polling stations were
virtually deserted all day.
--------------
Another Victory for Local Observers
--------------
4. (U) Local observation group ZESN once again used the
election to gain experience and to refine their parallel vote
count methodology. ZESN several conducted pre-election
visits to the area and on election day fielded 45 accredited
observers, giving the far-flung and infrastructure-poor
constituency sufficient coverage. Through a mix of mobile
and stationary teams, ZESN collected results from a sampling
of polling stations that, through statistical extrapolation,
closely mirrored and confirmed the official tabulation.
5. (SBU) In addition, ZESN produced a timely and well
written report on the by-election. The report noted that
that the government and ruling party had heavily tilted the
playing field in their favor through pre-election
intimidation and manipulation. In particular, ZESN noted
reports of the government using food aid to influence voting.
ZESN attributed the apathy to a number of factors, including
the choice of an ethnic Karanga rather than a local Shangaani
to represent ZANU-PF as well as the inability of the two MDC
factions to agree on a single opposition candidate.
HARARE 00000133 002 OF 002
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) The Chiredzi South election demonstrates anew that
what is most important in determining electoral outcomes in
Zimbabwe is not necessarily cheating on election day but
rather ZANU-PF,s ability to use government resources to
intimidate and manipulate voters in the run-up to the
election. This is particularly problematic in by-elections,
when the government and ruling party can concentrate
government resources on a single parliamentary constituency.
That said, the MDC played into the ruling party's hands again
in this election, as was the case in the rural council
elections last year, by running multiple candidates.
ZANU-PF's choice of an ethnic Karanga to run for the seat
created an opportunity for the opposition. They failed to
take advantage of it.
SCHULTZ