ZANU-PF FLEXES MUSCLES IN UPCOMING BY-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000115

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF FLEXES MUSCLES IN UPCOMING BY-ELECTION


Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.5 b/d


1. (SBU) Summary. ZANU-PF is expected to win the February 17
Chiredzi South by-election, also being contested by
candidates from both MDC factions and the United People's
Party (UPP),a ZANU-PF off-shoot. The MDC and UPP candidates
are from the area and belong to its dominant Shangaan ethnic
group; the ZANU-PF candidate is from the Kaanga ethnic group
and from outside of Chiredzi. ZANU-PF's muscle, including
party structures, inimidation from the national council of
chiefs, pessure from local chiefs, and manipulation of food
aid, is likely to trump voters' ethnic loyalties,antipathy
toward an &outside8 candidate, and lac of support for the
present government, and to rsult in a ZANU-PF victory. The
ZANU-PF candidate, a newly retired army colonel, was selected
by ZANU-PF faction leader Emmerson Mnangagwa, and his victory
would bolster Mnangagwa's power base in Masvingo Province and
Mnangagwa's standing with the military. End Summary.

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Chiredzi South: A ZANU-PF Stronghold
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2. (U) A parliamentary by-election for the Chiredzi South
constituency in Masvingo Province is scheduled for Saturday,
February 17. The seat was vacated with the death of the
ZANU-PF MP Aaron Baloyi in September 2006. Masvingo is a
traditional ruling party stronghold; Baloyi easily won the
Chiredzi South seat in March 2005 with 14,165 votes over the
6,170 votes received by MDC candidate Immaculate Makondo and
the 778 votes received by independent candidate Nehemiah
Zanamwe.


3. (C) Chiredzi South is dominated by the Shangaan ethnic
tribe, and the late ZANU-PF MP was Shangaan. According to
Giles Mutsekwa, MDC national security director and an ex-Army
major who maintains ties with the military, Mnangagwa, from
neighboring Midlands Province, instigated the current ZANU-PF
candidacy of Kilian Gwanesta, a Karanga and ex-army officer.
Mutsekwa told us that Mnangagwa, who is also a Karanga, was
seeking to increase his support within the military and his
influence in Masvingo Province.

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The Primaries: Outsider Steamrolls Local Favorite
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4. (U) In the January ZANU-PF primary run-off election in
Chiredzi South, Gwanetsa, who is not from Chiredzi, defeated
local favorite Ben Baloyi, a Shangaan. (Ben Baloyi is no
relation to the late MP Aaron Baloyi). Gwanetsa enjoyed
support from Mnangagwa and other ruling party bigwigs. Also,
according to the Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN),
he had military backing, including the use of military
vehicles and military campaign workers.

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The General Election: ZANU Win Expected
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5. (U) In the general election, Gwanesta faces three
opposition candidates from the Shangaan tribe. Makondo and
Zanamwe, both defeated by Aaron Baloyi in the March 2005
general elections, are contesting for the seat again. This
time, Makondo, who ran as the MDC candidate in 2005, is the
anti-Senate MDC candidate and Zanamwe, who ran as an

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independent in 2005, is the pro-Senate MDC candidate.
Savious Chauke is running as the UPP candidate.


6. (SBU) Ruling party elite and the military have been
hitting the campaign trail for Gwanesta. Politburo members
retired General Vitalis Zvinanashe and Dzikami Mavhaire spoke
at ZANU-PF campaign rallies insisting that failure to support
Gwanesta would be tantamount to "cursing" those who fought
and died for independence. According to ZESN, Gwanesta
continues to have military support as he campaigns, sometimes
in military vehicles with civilian license plates. Also,
according to ZESN, President of the Council of Chiefs Fortune
Charumbira has ordered local chiefs to pressure voters to
support Gwanesta or face restrictions on the distribution of
food aid. Relatedly, MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa told us
army personnel had been seen distributing food at Gwanesta's
recent campaign rallies. (Comment: Food security in the area
is a critical issue due to lack of rains and the local
population is particularly susceptible to such pressure. End
Comment.)

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The Opposition Remains Divided
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7. (C) Both anti-Senate faction spokesman Chamisa and
pro-Senate faction leader Arthur Mutambara acknowledged to us
the lack of cooperation between the two MDC factions resulted
in both fielding candidates. Both men hoped for
reunification, or at least implementation of the Code of
Conduct between the two factions, to prevent this situation
occurring in the future. For now, both Chamisa and Mutambara
said they expect to lose due to ZANU-PF pressures on voters
and manipulation of food aid, but noted the MDC was using the
election to build party structures in the constituency.

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Comment
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8. (SBU) The Chiredzi South by-election demonstrates that
ZANU-PF's time-worn strategy of intimidation and manipulation
of food aid is alive and well--and once again expected to be
successful in this rural constituency. It also demonstrates
that free and fair elections depend not only on the absence
of intimidation and violence on election day, but in ensuring
fair campaigning in the run-up to the election.


9. (SBU) Also disturbingly, the military, which has
insinuated itself into many Zimbabwean institutions, is
playing a direct role in the election. Not only is the
ZANU-PF candidate ex-military, but the military has lent
equipment and personnel, apparently at Mnangagwa's
instigation, to support the cause.
DELL