SADC TALKS CONTINUE; MDC TO PRESENT UNITED FRONT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001125

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL,
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: SADC TALKS CONTINUE; MDC TO PRESENT UNITED FRONT

REF: HARARE 1107

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren. Reason: 1.4 (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) SADC talks, stalemated over MDC demands for
implementation of a new constitution and electoral reforms
before elections and for an election date later than March,
are continuing. The MDC presented its case last weekend to
South African president Thabo Mbeki who promised to talk to
Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe and confer with SADC
colleagues. Meanwhile, the Tsvangirai faction of the MDC has
resolved that if it contests the elections, and does not
boycott, it will do so as a united front with the MDC
Mutambara faction, which in turn has indicated it will be
part of such a front.

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Breaking the Logjam
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2. (C) MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai briefed a HOM meeting
December 17 on the status of the SADC talks. He said the
talks were stalemated over MDC demands that an agreed-upon
constitution be implemented before elections; and that
electoral changes, including a reconstituted Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission, cleansing of the voters' rolls, and
delimitation of constituencies under the new ZEC, take place
before elections. The MDC was also demanding an electoral
date, probably later than March, that would allow these
changes to be implemented and give time for an improved
political climate.


3. (C) Tsvangirai said the MDC and ZANU-PF negotiators met
with Mbeki last weekend. The MDC emphasized that Mbeki's
SADC mandate was to foster a dialogue that would result in
free and fair--and uncontestable--elections. Mbeki promised
to talk with the principals (presumably Mugabe and
Tsvangirai) and then to consult with the SADC Organ of

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Politics and Defense. Tsvangirai though that Mugabe's SADC
colleagues could be a source of pressure. Commenting on
Mbeki's internal problems, Tsvangirai said Zimbabwe was not
now high on Mbeki's radar. (Note. In his efforts to develop
pressure on Mugabe, Tsvangirai travels to Ghana this week to
meet with AU president Kufor. End Note.)


4. (C) Tsvangirai said talks would continue, as would the
MDC's election preparations. At some point the MDC would
have to make a determination as to whether conditions would
permit a fair election, but Tsvangirai did not say when that
point would be reached.

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A United Front
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5. (C) Tsvangirai acknowledged that while over 70 percent of
Zimbabweans desire change, there was a sense of apathy due to
Mugabe's failure to open up democratic space, and to common
perception of MDC disunity and consequent irrelevance. He
had recently visited Matabeleland where people said they
wanted a united MDC.


6. (C) The National Council of the MDC had responded,
according to Tsvangirai, by resolving to contest the
elections as a united front. The opposition would field one
candidate for each local and parliamentary position, and
there would be one candidate for president.


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7. (C) The united front would make a decision as to whether
to participate in or boycott the elections depending on its
assessment as to whether the elections would be fair.
Tsvangirai was confident his faction and the Mutambara

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faction would consensually arrive at this decision. (Note.
In a call on the Ambassador on December 14, Arthur Mutambara
stated a continued willingness to work with Tsvangirai in a
united front. End Note.)

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A Parenthetical Note on South Africa
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8. (C) Tsvangirai said that a Jacob Zuma victory in South
Africa's ANC contest would result in a change in style,
rather than policy. Ultimately, he thought Zimbabwe's
opposition would benefit. Venturing into South African
politics, Tsvangirai opined that Mbeki had sullied his legacy
by competing against Zuma. He should have let Zuma run
uncontested, or backed another candidate.

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Comment
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9. (C) The MDC continues to threaten an election boycott if
constitutional and electoral changes are not implemented, if
there is not a change in the political atmosphere, and if
there is not a reasonable electoral date. It hopes that this
threat will cause Mbeki and SADC to lean hard enough on
Mugabe to produce the desired changes. We expect that Mugabe
will not budge on the election date, and that the MDC will
decide to contest the elections under less than ideal
conditions. Boycotting the elections would make a point, but
it would leave ZANU-PF in control, claiming the MDC had
boycotted because it knew it did not have the support to win.

MCGEE