SCENESETTER CABLE FOR WHA/CAR DIRECTOR'S VISIT TO GRENADA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GRENADA 000156

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TAGS: PREL ECON ASEC EAID GJ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER CABLE FOR WHA/CAR DIRECTOR'S VISIT TO GRENADA



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Embassy Grenada warmly welcomes November
12-13, 2007 visit to St. George's of WHA/CAR Director Velia de
Pirro. Director De Pirro is visiting Grenada at a time when the
United States is seen by Grenadians as losing its dominance in
the Caribbean and China is filling the void. Some Grenadian
expats in the U.S. are recommending that the government play the
two "giants" off each other to get the most money out of them,
especially as the country continues to rebuild after devastating
hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. Strong disagreement about how to
encourage investment and development divide the country. The
specter of elections loom, coloring all discussions, but the
most recent CADRES poll reveals public ambivalence about local
political parties. Rising fuel and food prices have left the
public reeling, looking to government for help at a time when
public debt resulting from restoring infrastructure has reached
a peak of 126% of GDP. High youth unemployment and increasing
crime are causes for concern. The remnants of the Grenada 17,
imprisoned for killing former Prime Minister Maurice Bishop,
members of his cabinet, and an untold number of Grenadians on
October 19, 1983 maintain that the United States knows where the
bodies are buried. Mitchell will likely ask about WHA A/S
Shannon's June promise to review USG files one more time. END
SUMMARY

Economic Developments


2. (SBU) Grenada's economy, dependent on tourism, education, and
agriculture, was hit hard by the post-9/11 decline in tourism.
It was then devastated by Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Emily
(2005). Ivan brought the economy to a near-standstill, doing
damage equal to two and one-half times Grenada's GDP. With
assistance from the United States and other sources of
international aid, reconstruction proceeded quickly. Despite
initial high unemployment in the tourist and other sectors,
urban Grenadians benefited post-hurricane from job opportunities
in the surging construction sector. Agricultural workers did not
fare as well. Hurricane Ivan destroyed or significantly damaged
a large percentage of Grenada's nutmeg, cocoa, and other tree
crops. Hurricane Emily eight months later further damaged the
sector. Complete recovery will take years as many farmers
simply walked away from their land and have not returned.
Grenada continues to import many basic foods which are no longer
grown in sufficient quantities on the island.


3. (SBU) In anticipation of Cricket World Cup matches held on
the island in the spring of 2007, many Grenadians renewed their
focus on the rebuilding process. The number of hotel and
home-stay rooms in the tri-island state increased as a result.
Both cruise ship visitors and stay overs have increased in the
last year. However, Grenada lags behind its neighbors in
marketing the island overseas and many rooms remain empty for
much of each year. St. George's University, a large American
medical and veterinary school with 3,700 students, about 1,200
of them American citizens, is in full operation and making a
significant contribution to the economy. Due to the 2007
closure of SGU's St. Vincent campus, there are 350 additional
students in Grenada, resulting in a construction boomlet on the
St. George's campus to create housing and teaching space for
them.


4. (SBU) Grenada has good infrastructure, a relatively high
literacy rate, and stable political system. Remittances from
the U.S., Canada, and the UK are reported to amount to
approximately 31% of Grenada's GDP. High public debt, about
126% of GDP, resulting from rebuilding efforts following the two
hurricanes continues to be a drag on the economy. Further
economic diversification, especially in tourism and education
services and higher-end niche agricultural markets, should
improve Grenada's longer-term prospects. The minimum wage was
last raised in July 2002 for domestic workers, plumbers,
agricultural workers, and shop assistants. The normal workweek
is forty hours in five days. Unemployment, especially among
youth aged 18-25, is over 20%. The cost of living has been
going up for the last several years.

Assistance


5. (SBU) The Government of Grenada is desperate for assistance
that will not increase the country's overall debt. As a result,
offers from foreign donors are grasped as quickly as they
appear. The Cubans have sent doctors, run the local pathology
lab (not very well apparently as any forensic work must be sent
elsewhere, usually to Trinidad & Tobago),provided emergency
saving (GE) light bulbs to local residents, and continue to
provide eye operations for Grenadians. Venezuela announced
assistance to Grenada after Hurricane Ivan, but has only
delivered a fraction of what was promised; the Venezuelan
military has built some houses for needy Grenadians, though not
the hundreds promised. Grenlec - the American owned Grenadian
electricity company - in October switched from Texaco to
PetroCaribe for the fuel to run its turbines. Japanese
assistance to farmers and fishers is tied to Grenadian support

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for Japan's position in the International Whaling Commission
(IWC). Grenada supports the Japanese position in IWC meetings
and in conversations with us.


6. (SBU) Grenada's relationship with the PRC is the most
complex. We understand that the PRC provided a large amount of
financial support to opposition party National Democratic
Congress (NDC) in the 2003 elections; some here believe that
support made all the difference in NDC contestants winning seven
seats. At that time, the GOG still recognized Taiwan. In 2004,
the GOG switched allegiance and the money started rolling into
government coffers. Twenty-four Grenadians are studying at
universities around China. The PRC built Grenada's new national
cricket stadium with 600 plus imported Chinese workers. With
the stadium finished in early 2007, the workers fanned out into
agricultural and cultural projects, teaching Chinese at the T.A.
Marryshow Community College (TAMCC),and constructing the first
tranche of a promised 2,000 homes. GOG officials, government
employees, and opposition MP's have been sent to China on all
expense paid junkets. Media workers have attended two to four
week journalism seminars in China. On October 31, the GOG
announced that the PRC will build a port in Sauteurs in the
north of the main island, send seven Chinese doctors, build IT
centers around the country, and train the Royal Grenadian Police
Force (RGPF) in martial arts. Local construction companies
complain that they cannot compete with a government that does
not have to worry about making a profit and are particularly
annoyed with the international financial institutions that allow
the PRC to compete with private companies on their projects.
The PRC uses only Chinese labor on its own building projects.


7. (SBU) The GOG would welcome more U.S. engagement and
assistance but will do nothing publicly to jeopardize ties to
their newfound friends. Politicians thank U.S. officials in
private but are less effusive in public statements. The U.S.
continues to provide training and other assistance to the RPGF,
and was heavily involved in the extensive training provided to
those countries hosting 2007 Cricket World Cup, but this is less
visible and therefore less politically desirable than the showy
projects handed over without apparent strings by the Chinese,
Japanese, and others. Expats in the United States have been
recommending that the GOG take lessons from the Cold War and
U.S.-Soviet relations and attempt to play the "China card" to
convince the U.S. to give more money to counter the "red
menace". Statements from USG officials that the United States
has a different relationship with China than it had with the
USSR and does not want another cold war fall on deaf ears.

Politics


8. (SBU) Governor General Sir Daniel Williams opened Parliament
on October 12, 2007 with a shorter than usual throne speech
consisting mostly of a compilation of government accomplishments
and few specific future projects. Speculation took off
immediately that this was the last throne speech before Prime
Minister Keith Mitchell calls elections. The last possible date
elections can be held is February - March, 2009. The NDC has
been trying for the last year to push the government into
calling elections, but Mitchell continues to keep his own
council.


9. (SBU) National Democratic Congress (NDC) political leader
Tillman Thomas gave his party's official policy statement on
October 13, the first time the party has actually told the
country what it stands for, rather than what it is against. The
NDC holds seven of the 15 seats in the lower house of
parliament. Thomas said an NDC government will focus on good
governance, social development, human resource development,
economic development, fiscal policy, and cost of living issues,
with a special focus on re-invigorating agriculture. Thomas
maintained that the party will support private investment, a
necessary qualification in light of private and public NDC
leadership statements that government should own all land and
that people should be required to remain on the land as farmers.


10. (SBU) Grenada has three additional registered political
parties: Grenada United Labour Party (GULP),People's Labour
Movement (PLM),and Good Old Democracy (GOD) party. GOD is
essentially a vanity political party with one member. Disarray
in GULP and PLM leadership will most likely keep them from
mounting effective challenges to the NNP and NDC anytime soon.
Two people claim to be political leader of GULP and neither one
will give an inch. PLM recently lost a substantial number of
its political leadership in a dispute over comments critical of
the judicial system made by its political leader. Ironically,
the PLM deserters have joined one of the GULP factions, further
exacerbating that party's internal problems.


11. (SBU) The Caribbean Development Research Services, Inc.
(CADRES) released a poll in October that showed a public
ambivalent about the political parties - with 43% either unsure
or unwilling to say which political party they support - but

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with a clear preference for the current Prime Minister: 59%
preferred Mitchell, 33% Thomas, with the remaining 5% split
between GULP and PLM leaders. The poll had a margin of error of
+/- 5%. Mitchell, enjoying his personal lead, cautioned that
the results were clear that there was more work to do. Thomas
lashed out, accusing Mitchell of "buying off" CADRES and CADRES
of deliberately hiding local-level results that proved NDC was
preferred. CADRES had stated up front that the information
gathered at the local level was from too few respondents to be
meaningful.

Deportees


12. (SBU) Grenada had been averaging about twelve deportees from
the United States each year. In 2007, there have been seventeen
returned to Grenada from January through October. Mitchell
acknowledges that the U.S. has the right to determine who may
live within its borders. The Prime Minister has one example of
a deportee becoming enmeshed in local violence upon his return
to Grenada, which the PM regularly trots out in meetings with
USG officials. Embassy discussions with the Commissioner of
Police (COP) reveal that the RGPF keeps track of each and every
deportee upon their return. Embassy informs the RGPF via letter
of each returnee, escorted or non-escorted. The police meet the
person, interview them, and keep a record of where they are
living. The COP has told us that the police can pick any of
them up at any time and says that from the police perspective,
the deportees are generally not a major component of local crime
and violence. Grenada's Minister for Social Development told us
she would like to see re-integration programs for prisoners
leaving Grenada's one prison, but so far the GOG has not
allocated any money. Embassy Grenada has received several
inquiries from deportees since mid-July asking about the USG
"program to reintegrate deportees" into Grenadian society as
well as when they can get visas to return to the U.S.

1983 - Where the Bodies are Buried


13. (SBU) WHA Assistant Secretary Thomas A. Shannon promised
Mitchell in a one-on-one meeting in June, when the Prime
Minister was in Washington for the Conference on the Caribbean,
that the USG would make another effort to search U.S. files to
determine the location of the bodies of former Prime Minister
Maurice Bishop and members of his cabinet. The Grenadians in
prison for assassinating Bishop et al continue to insist that
the "Americans know where the bodies are". The most radical NDC
adherents, who are very close to the prisoners, support this
view. DOD/OSD promised to follow through on a search upon
receipt of a execsec to execsec memo from State. Mitchell is
likely to remind de Pirro of Shannon's promise.
MCISAAC