SIERRA LEONE CALM BUT ANXIOUS ON THE EVE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 FREETOWN 000479

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA (BGRAVES)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SL
SUBJECT: SIERRA LEONE CALM BUT ANXIOUS ON THE EVE OF
NATIONAL ELECTIONS

REF: FREETOWN 471

Classified By: Ambassador Thomas N. Hull for reasons 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) Sierra Leone will hold its presidential and
parliamentary elections on August 11. These are the second
national elections since the end of the decade-long civil war
in 2002, and the first since peacekeepers departed in
December 2005. Seven political parties are running for the
presidency. The outcome of the elections is still uncertain
as no party seems to have gained a clear political advantage.
The official campaign period ended August 9, and all of the
three larger political parties held well-attended and
peaceful political rallies in Freetown and other areas in the
country on the last three days of campaigning. Enthusiastic
party supporters came out in large numbers to support their
candidates wearing bright party colors. Sierra Leone also
held its first-ever presidential and vice presidential
debates on August 5 and 7. Although the ruling Sierra Leone
People's Party (SLPP) refused to participate, both events
were well attended and drew considerable media attention.
Violence remains the number one concern, particularly in the
aftermath of polling day. Some political party leaders have
voiced concerns that violence is likely to occur. About 350
international observers, as well as 6,750 civil society and
8,670 party agents, have deployed to monitor the elections.
END SUMMARY.

WHO WILL WIN?
--------------

2. (C) With the end of the official campaign period on August
9, there is still no clear favorite to win the presidency.
Publicly, officials of the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party
(SLPP) remain confident that their candidate, current Vice
President Solomon Berewa, will win the presidency. However,
many high-placed officials in the SLPP have voiced private
reservations to the Ambassador complaining that Berewa has
not used SLPP party structures to his advantage, and feel if
Berewa loses, it will be his personal fault, not the party's.
Nevertheless, he has exhausted himself in the past few
months, as he traveled throughout Sierra Leone pursuing his
candidacy. A closely held British Government assessment
indicates that Berewa will get a plurality and may even reach
the 55 percent majority needed to avoid a runoff election.
However, public sentiment is high for change as there is
large disenchantment with the current SLPP administration for
its failure to reform government and rebuild the dismal
infrastructure following the civil war. The outcome of the
Parliamentary elections is even more uncertain, but the
shifting demographics of Sierra Leone have made an opposition
majority possible.

POLITICAL PARTIES HOLD PEACEFUL RALLIES
--------------

3. (SBU) All three main parties held large political rallies
in Freetown on the last three days of the official campaign
period that ended August 9. Observers reported all rallies
were peaceful and without incident. On August 7, the People's
Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC),led by party leader
and presidential candidate Charles Margai, held two marches,
one beginning in East Freetown and the other in the western
part of the city. The marchers converged on Victoria Park in
central Freetown where they listened to speeches by party
leaders and showed their support sporting bright orange
T-shirts. Approximately 20,000 attended. A similar rally in
Bo, however, only drew 2,000 PMDC supporters.


4. (SBU) The All People's Congress (APC) held its rally on
August 8. Supporters in Freetown, where the APC is favored,
turned out en masse to cheer their candidate, Ernest Bai
Koroma, as he made his way to the National Stadium. During
local government elections in 2004, the APC won over 80
percent of the vote in Freetown, and hope again to capitalize
on strong APC party support in the capital. Viewing downtown
Freetown from the hills above near Fourah Bay College, one
could see a sea of red (the APC color) stretching for long
distances as jubilant marchers moved peacefully to the
National Stadium to cheer their presidential candidate. UN
Police Observers reported no incidents of violence and said
marchers were in high spirits and cooperative. Embassy
observers monitoring the marches and rally said the Sierra
Leone Police (SLP) had to turn supporters away from the
National Stadium that was filled well beyond its 42,000
seating capacity. Observers in Bo in the Southern Province,
traditionally a SLPP stronghold, say the APC had a strong
showing of party supporters at the rally held there. At the
National Stadium, Party Leader Ernest Koroma urged supporters
to desist from violence.

FREETOWN 00000479 002 OF 003




5. (SBU) SLPP political rallies country-wide were reportedly
peaceful and without incident, although turnout was
unexpectedly low, particularly in Freetown. SLPP presidential
candidate Vice President Solomon Berewa led a procession
through Freetown to the National Stadium. Unfortunately for
the SLPP, unlike the APC and PMDC rallies, it rained
throughout the day. The SLPP claimed the rain was "cleansing."

FIRST PRESIDENTIAL AND VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES HELD
-------------- --------------

6. (SBU) The Sierra Leone Association of Journalists (SLAJ),
with assistance from the USAID-funded National Democratic
Institute (NDI),held the first-ever vice presidential and
presidential debates on August 5 and 7. All candidates,
except the SLPP aspirants, participated in the debates, which
drew considerable interest and were well attended. Both
debates were broadcast live over UN Radio. Candidates were
asked questions on health and education, employment and youth
development, agriculture and rural development, children and
gender affairs, peace and security, the state of the economy,
and the woeful lack of public utilities and infrastructure.
The vice presidential debate, held on August 5, was dominated
by the APC vice presidential candidate Samuel Sam-Sumana who
appeared to have been the best briefed. However the debate
lacked substance as all of the candidates failed to
articulate a new vision or path to reform for the country.
Many were clearly not acquainted with the issues they were
asked to address.


7. (SBU) On August 7, SLAJ held the presidential debate. PMDC
presidential candidate Charles Margai arrived late from the
PMDC political rally. Making bold accusations and insulting
the chairperson of the event, who is a member of the ruling
SLPP, Margai drew repeated applause and cheers from the
audience. Interestingly, Margai openly campaigned for APC
presidential hopeful Ernest Koroma, complimenting Koroma and
defending him against accusations from the other presidential
candidates. In his closing statement, Margai said he felt
there would be violence on election day, and said he had no
confidence in the security forces.


8. (SBU) The SLPP explained its absence through a press
statement issued before the debate that said vice
presidential candidate Foreign Minister Momodu Koroma and
presidential candidate Vice President Solomon Berewa would
not attend the debates unless Opposition leaders Koroma and
Margai denounced violence in the elections. The SLPP used
press quotes taken out of context from earlier Margai and
Koroma interviews to accuse them both of planning to make
Sierra Leone ungovernable by inciting party supporters to use
violence to disrupt the elections and to not accept the
results. APC presidential candidate Koroma publicly refuted
the SLPP's claims stating that if he lost, he would accept
the results, if the election is deemed credible.

THREAT OF VIOLENCE LURKS
--------------

9. (SBU) The threat of violence remains a major concern for
all elections stakeholders. A spate of incidents following
the commencement of the official campaigning period on July
10 quickly prompted statements from the international and NGO
communities condemning elections violence and encouraging all
political party leaders to accept the election results. A
strongly-worded July 29 statement from the diplomatic
community issued by the United Nations Integrated Office in
Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL) called for political party leaders to
promote peaceful campaigning and prevent provocative conduct
on the part of their supporters. The statement also called
for Paramount Chiefs to affirm their commitment to the
promotion of the democratic process in the country. As
traditional rulers, the Paramount Chiefs wield considerable
political influence and have been known to impose their
political beliefs on their subjects,


10. (SBU) On August 1, the Office of National Security, in
coordination with the Political Parties Registration
Commission (PPRC) and National Electoral Commission (NEC),
held an Elections Security Consultative Conference to address
elections violence. National Security Coordinator Kellie
Conteh stated that there was a general and unacceptable level
of violence being displayed between political opponents
predominantly in the Southern and Eastern Provinces of Sierra
Leone and strongly cautioned political parties from employing
the services of former junta members linked with the violence
in the civil war as security and political advisors. He said
giving these individuals legitimized roles in the political
process unnecessarily raised the political temperature in the
country.


FREETOWN 00000479 003 OF 003


Electoral Observers
--------------

11. (U) The elections will be well monitored. Close to 350
international observers will deploy throughout the country,
including teams from ECOWAS, the AU, the EU, the European
Parliament and the Commonwealth. NDI is also hosting an
international group of observers, including some Americans.
There will also be 6,751 domestic observers from Sierra Leone
civil society groups, 8,670 political party agents, and 41
media representatives observing the elections at 6,171
polling stations. As noted reftel, the Embassy will also
field employees to monitor and report on the electoral
progress.

COMMENT
--------------

12. (C) Most election observers anticipate election day will
be quiet. The NEC, with excellent logistical assistance from
the UN, UN technical experts and other international donors,
seems well poised to address the logistical challenges on
election day. Ballot delivery and electoral official
training has proceeded smoothly and on schedule. The greatest
challenge will be the inclement weather. The forecast calls
for torrential rains the entire day, which will impede the
ability of voters to reach the polls, particularly in remote
rural areas.


13. (SBU) It was very encouraging that the rallies of the
three major political parties occurred without incident and
supporters were in good spirits. The real concern is what
will happen after the electoral results are announced, and
whether political party leaders will accept the final
outcome. The vote count will begin at each polling station as
soon as the last voters in line cast their ballots.
Unofficial results are likely to dribble in, although the NEC
has urged the media not to announce results until officially
certified. The latest results must be announced is August 23.


14. (C) Effectively, during the interim, there will be a
governance vacuum. This past week, all ministers were given
24 hours notice to step down before the election. President
Kabbah will continue in office as a caretaker until the new
president is announced and inaugurated. The President's
advisors have told the Ambassador that they expect the Chief
Justice to swear-in the new President by August 17 at the
latest, but that assumes that NEC will have certified the
final results and that one of the candidates will have
achieved the requisite majority.


15. (SBU) A critical element will be whether the losing
candidates will exercise the leadership necessary to
forestall violence caused by disappointment in the results.
Discontent may take many forms. There are news reports that
market women in Freetown have vowed to march naked to the
American and British Ambassadors, residences to protest a
SLPP victory. END COMMENT.
HULL