SIERRA LEONE ELECTIONS ON TRACK AS CAMPAIGNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 FREETOWN 000421

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA (BGRAVES)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR SL
SUBJECT: SIERRA LEONE ELECTIONS ON TRACK AS CAMPAIGNING
BEGINS

REF: FREETOWN 412

Classified By: Ambassador Thomas N. Hull for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The official campaign period for Sierra Leone's
August 11 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections began on
July 10. With the elections under a month away, no party has
emerged as the clear favorite to win. Indications are there
could be a runoff in the presidential election between the
ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) and the opposition
All People's Congress (APC). All three of the major party
presidential candidates have named their vice presidential
running mates, and the nomination period for presidential
candidates has concluded. There will be nearly an 80 to 90
percent turnover in Parliament as many incumbents decided to
not seek re-election or were not nominated by their political
parties.


2. (U) Preparations for the August 11 national elections
remain on track. Recently approved funding from the Peace
Building Fund (PBF),contingent on the GoSL paying the
remaining balance, will help cover remaining elections costs
of nearly $3 million. The GoSL has a fiscal crisis prompted
by some major donors freezing direct budget support. This has
impaired the GoSL's ability to provide timely budgetary
support for the National Electoral Commission's (NEC)
elections preparations. At a recent PBF meeting, the Minister
of Finance promised donors the GoSL will meet its full
elections obligations by the end of July.


3. (SBU) The political atmosphere remains mainly positive. To
date, there have been minimal incidents of political
violence, intimidation, and intolerance. The Sierra Leone
Police (SLP) have exhibited a surprising capacity to manage
conflict despite its limited resources and staffing. It also
has maintained its neutrality. Short on personnel, the SLP
have recruited and trained officers from the Fire Service,
Prison Authority, and Chiefdom Police to assist with security
on election day. Officials from the United Nations Integrated
Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL) are concerned about a plan
by the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces (RSLAF) to
provide standby security assistance to the SLP for the
elections. While the RSLAF appears relatively stable, rumors
persist about possible military interference following the
elections. USAID, through the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) and IFES, is providing support for conflict mitigation
training in all 112 constituencies. IFES is providing
technical and administrative support to the Political Party
Registration Committee to resolve complaints raised by
political parties. END SUMMARY.

WHO WILL WIN AUGUST 11?
--------------


4. (SBU) As the August 11 national elections fast approach,
none of the three main presidential candidates has emerged as
the clear favorite, and there is uncertainty if any party
will achieve the required 55 percent to win the presidency.
According to NEC officials, if there is a runoff, the
deadline to hold the runoff would be around September 8. The
NEC says if the results come back earlier, it could hold a
runoff as soon as September 1. Election observers believe a
runoff would be between the ruling SLPP and opposition APC.

CAMPAIGN SEASON BEGAN JULY 10
--------------


5. (U) Although the campaign season officially began on July
10, all three main political party presidential candidates
for the ruling SLPP and opposition APC and People's
Democratic Movement for Change (PMDC) have been actively
campaigning for some time under the pretext of "sensitizing"
their followers. The National Electoral Commission (NEC) and
Political Party Registration Commission (PPRC) have been
virtually powerless to enforce electoral law that bans
campaigning until the NEC officially announced the start of
the campaign period. Campaigning will officially end on
August 9.

SLPP TAKES OPPOSITION SERIOUSLY
--------------


6. (SBU) Although the ruling SLPP boasts it will easily win
the elections, the seriousness and vigor with which
presidential candidate Vice President Solomon Berewa is
campaigning indicates he and the SLPP are taking the APC's

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and PMDC's challenges seriously. The PMDC, which formed when
a disgruntled Charles Margai split with the SLPP in 2005
after a failed attempt to secure the SLPP presidential
nomination, will siphon off some of the traditional SLPP vote
in the Eastern and Southern Provinces and likely provide a
small opening for the APC to pick up votes in traditional
SLPP strongholds. Areas like Bo and Pujehun in the South,
which have traditionally gone to the SLPP, will be hotly
contested between the PMDC and SLPP, although it is unlikely
the PMDC will win outside of Margai's home district of
Moyamba.

QADHAFI VISIT PUTS SLPP ON DEFENSIVE
--------------


7. (SBU) Recent miscalculations by President Ahmad Tejan
Kabbah have put Vice President Solomon Berewa on the
defensive causing him to distance himself from the outgoing
President. Following the recent visit of Libyan leader
Muammar Qadhafi to Sierra Lone, President Kabbah was forced
to defend himself and his government against allegations that
SLPP officials had personally profited from humanitarian
assistance. During the visit, President Kabbah publicly
thanked Qadhafi for Libyan rice consignments sent in
2001-2002 (Reftel),which the public and press interpreted as
affirmation of government corruption since they had no
recollection of the gift.


8. (SBU) This backlash and other political gaffes have
contributed to a greater uncertainty surrounding Berewa's
presidential bid. Hand-picked by President Kabbah as the SLPP
presidential candidate, Berewa is widely viewed as lacking
charisma and energy, although he has campaigned hard
throughout the country. Sierra Leoneans enjoy making fun of
Berewa's tendency to fall asleep during public events, the
most recent being President Kabbah's farewell address to
Parliament. Berewa's advanced age (approximately 77) has
necessitated the selection of a much younger running mate.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
--------------


9. (SBU) The SLPP has announced that the political wing of
the Revolutionary United Front, the RUFP, has declared its
support for the SLPP, since it did not qualify for the
elections itself. Bitter enemies during the civil war, these
two parties are now opportunistic bedfellows. Also, two
prominent former members of the National Provisional
Revolutionary Council (NPRC) have declared their support for
the SLPP. In 1996, the SLPP replaced the NPRC military junta
that was led by Brigadier Maada Bio. Bio and former Secretary
of State Tom Nyuma have actively participated in recent SLPP
rallies. Both have strong U.S. ties: Bio studied at American
University and is a businessman in Freetown, and Nyuma, who
lived in the U.S. for many years, was deported July 2 on
domestic abuse charges. The New Vision newspaper reports that
other prominent NPRC members have also been seen dressed in
green, the SLPP party color.

BEREWA ACCEPTS FM KOROMA AS RUNNING MATE
--------------


10. (SBU) Berewa's recent selection of Foreign Affairs
Minister Momodu Koroma as the SLPP vice presidential
candidate was received with mixed reviews. It is widely
speculated that President Kabbah forced Koroma, who had
earlier been Minister of Presidential Affairs, on Berewa.
Berewa, being a southern Christian, reportedly would have
preferred to balance the ticket with a Muslim from the
APC-dominated North to help SLPP chances in the region. SLPP
politicians are seriously concerned that Koroma is
unelectable and actually harms Berewa's candidacy. Although
Koroma's father was a northern Muslim, he never lived in the
North himself, and is therefore rejected by northerners as
one of their own. Nonetheless, the SLPP continues to poll
decently in the North. This was apparent during the
Ambassador's recent trip to Kambia near the Guinea border,
where SLPP and APC support is evenly divided.

ARE THE OPPOSITION PARTIES VIABLE OPTIONS?
--------------


11. (SBU) The PMDC's popularity with youth seems to be losing
momentum, likely symptomatic of the public's discomfort with
PMDC presidential hopeful Charles Margai's demagogue-like
approach to leadership. However, Margai, the nephew and son
of Sierra Leone's first two prime ministers, possesses enough
influence to make trouble, particularly among disenchanted
youth. Margai's running mate, Dr. Ibrahim Tejan Jalloh, an
elderly former Health Minister from the far northeastern

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district of Koinadugu, brings nothing to the ticket except
regional and religious balance.


12. (SBU) APC presidential candidate Ernest Koroma was last
to announce his running mate. According to APC party
officials, Koroma was waiting to see whom the SLPP would
choose. Koroma countered Berewa's selection of Momodu Koroma
by selecting Chief Samuel Sam-Sumana, a private businessman
and son of a late paramount chief from the Kono District in
the East. By adding Sam-Sumana to the ticket, the APC hopes
to cement their hold on Kono, a key district for their
strategy, and strengthen their numbers in the SLPP-dominated
East. Although Sam-Sumana may help the APC in Kono, his
appeal elsewhere appears minimal. Sam-Sumana returned to
Sierra Leone two years ago after spending many years in the
United States studying and working. Bios on the presidential
and vice presidential candidates will follow septel.


13. (SBU) The APC's campaign had earlier been slowed by a
protracted court battle within the party leadership. However,
the parties settled their differences out of court, which
allowed the APC to refocus its efforts and regain momentum.
Nevertheless, the prolonged court battle sapped the APC
coffers considerably, leaving the Party weakened against the
well-funded SLPP. However, Koroma may not have much
confidence in his own candidacy, as he approached the NEC to
inquire if election law allowed presidential candidates to
run for both president and Parliament. NEC responded this was
allowed as it was also raised in the 2002 elections.

LARGE TURNOVER IN PARLIAMENT
--------------


14. (SBU) At the launch of the Campaign Period Process on
July 10, NEC Chairperson Christiana Thorpe announced 572
candidates will vie for parliamentary seats. There will be a
large turnover in Parliament, with an estimated 80 to 90
percent of the membership expected to change. Of all the
political parties, the SLPP did best in selecting their
parliamentary candidates by holding party primaries in a
transparent fashion. As a result, they will probably do well
in the Parliamentary elections. With the return to
constituency-based elections, many old party stalwarts were
replaced by fresh, younger faces with strong community ties,
and many incumbents also chose not to seek re-election. The
APC, on the other hand, resorted to backroom politics in the
final selection of its parliamentary candidates, largely
because of the need to reunite the party and raise campaign
funds. Although demographic shifts and redistricting favor
the APC, their chances of a parliamentary majority have been
hurt by weaker constituency ties.

YOUTH ARE THE X FACTOR
--------------


15. (SBU) Youth will play a large factor in the elections as
41 percent of voter registrants are between the ages of 18
and 27 years old. Many youth have associated themselves with
the PMDC, especially in areas like Bo and Pujehun in the
South. The SLPP has gained some ground through the GoSL's
Youth Employment Scheme launched in October 2006. However,
the GoSL has reportedly run out of money to continue funding
this program. The APC is counting on the urban youth moving
to their longer-established opposition party.

PEACE BUILING FUND PROVIDES RELIEF FOR FISCAL CRISIS
-------------- --------------


16. (C) During a July 6 meeting at UNIOSIL, Executive
Representative for the Secretary General (ERSG) Victor Angelo
expressed grave concerns about Sierra Leone's fiscal crisis
and its effect on election preparations. Major direct budget
donors have temporarily suspended assistance until after the
elections in part to discourage the ruling Sierra Leone
People's Party (SLPP) from using assistance to support
political campaigning.


17. (C) UNIOSIL identified Peace Building Funds as a viable
option to help alleviate some of the fiscal pressure on the
GoSL. It and the GoSL submitted a proposal requesting $1.6
million of funding from the PBF for electoral assistance to
help cover the estimated $3 million needed to pay for
election preparations and a runoff if necessary. On July 11,
the PBF Steering Committee met and approved the proposal
contingent on the GoSL paying the remaining 50 percent of
costs. The same day the GoSL promptly paid the NEC $500,000,
and Minister of Finance John Benjamin pledged another
$667,000 payment at the end of July. Angelo had previously
told President Kabbah and Vice President Berewa the GoSL
would be held accountable to provide their share of the

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funding. Government leaders, meanwhile, are privately
accusing the budget support donors, especially the British,
of trying to orchestrate "a regime change" that could
backfire into a military coup.

SECURITY FORCES: ARE THEY UP TO THE TASK?
--------------


18. (SBU) The PBF Steering Committee also approved $1.85
million in assistance to support the Sierra Leone Police,
RSLAF and Prison Authority. Budget constraints continue to be
the greatest obstacle for security operations. In the field,
many police units have not been paid and lack fuel, working
vehicles and other critical provisions. UNIOSIL police
advisors are providing much needed assistance to help the SLP
maintain operations. Despite these challenges, the SLP have
managed to maintain the peace, public order, and their
neutrality in political matters. With assistance from DFID,
the SLP have trained an additional 600 chiefdom police, Fire
Service, and Prison Authority officers to assist with
security operations on election day. The SLP have developed a
plan, described by the UN as "excellent," to preposition
police in key areas for rapid response in the event of
violence in areas identified as potential "hot spots."
Despite this recent infusion of assistance, the SLP still
will be challenged should there be an outbreak of
larger-scale political violence incidents.

UNIOSIL SURPRISED BY RSLAF PLAN TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SECURITY
-------------- --------------


19. (C) ERSG Angelo reported July 6 that the RSLAF has
drafted a plan to provide one company per brigade as a
contingency plan to support the SLP if necessary. Angelo said
he was surprised by this news and thought the current threat
level did not warrant such a plan. He expressed concern the
RSLAF are not properly trained to conduct crowd control
tactics. According to the UK International Military Advisory
and Training Team (IMATT) deputy commander, the RSLAF resents
being left out of the election preparations, and believe they
have a professional role to play, but they are being opposed
by National Security Advisor Kelli Conteh. (Comment: RSLAF
companies typically consist of 2-3 officers and 42 enlisted
soldiers. The RSLAF have had no academic or operational
training in crowd control and only a handful have received
peacekeeping training. End Comment.)


20. (C) There are unconfirmed rumors that the RSLAF will be
asked intervene on the ruling SLPP's behalf if it loses the
election. In its interactions with the RSLAF, IMATT personnel
have not picked up any indications that these rumors are
true. There also are ongoing concerns about payment of wages
for the RSLAF. The GoSL has approved new Terms and Conditions
of Service (TACOS) for the RSLAF. However, the GoSL,
according to UNIOSIL, only has enough funds to pay RSLAF
wages for July, but not August, which would create a crisis
for the new government. The GoSL has had difficulty providing
the RSLAF with adequate rations, and soldiers have not been
paid in a timely fashion. The RSLAF will gain some relief
from the recently approved PBF funding, but it too, will have
to continue to contend with the effects of the difficult
fiscal situation.

CATHOLIC MISSIONS TRAIN CHIEFS ON ELECTIONS
--------------


21. (SBU) Paramount chiefs, the traditional local rulers in
Sierra Leone, wield considerable political influence and have
instructed their subjects on who to vote for in past
elections. In response, Catholic Missions around the country
have implemented training seminars to persuade paramount to
be neutral in the elections and not promote or condone
incidents of political intolerance and intimidation. The
seminars also stressed the importance of providing a fair and
level playing field for all political parties in their
chiefdoms. The seminars, which have been conducted in Kenema,
Bo, and Makeni, have been well attended with paramount chiefs
traveling long distances to participate. At the conclusion of
the seminars, they have signed protocol statements pledging
their affirmation and commitment to the promotion of the
democratic process in the country. According to Bishop
Biguzzi, a prominent cleric, the chiefs had refused similar
training from the NEC because it had failed to consult them
in election planning.

USG ELECTION ASSISTANCE
--------------


22. (SBU) USAID is funding the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) and IFES to provide electoral assistance. Both are

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conducting voter education activities and working with
political parties providing technical assistance for party
registration, training parties to monitor the electoral
process, and ensuring compliance with the Political Parties
Code of Conduct that was adopted by all registered political
parties in November 2006. NDI is also working with a new
coalition of NGOs called Democracy Sierra Leone (DSL) to
provide conflict mitigation and prevention training in all 14
districts. IFES is providing support to the Political Parties
Registration Commission (PPRC) to train individuals,
including paramount chiefs, imams, local authorities, clergy,
women, and youth, to participate on Political Party Code of
Conduct Monitoring Committees in each district. These
committees are helping to mitigate or prevent intra and inter
party conflicts that occur during the run up to the election
on August 11. The latest reports are the committees are
making progress and have been well-received. IFES has also
provided assistance to the PPRC to open offices in Makeni
(North),Kenema (East),and Bo (South).

COMMENT
--------------


23. (SBU) The outcome of the elections is still very
uncertain. No political party has emerged with a noticeable
lead, and all candidates are hard at work campaigning, which
suggests there is an assumption the elections process will be
free and fair. Elections preparations have gone remarkably
well with only minor glitches, and the NEC has performed
admirably given the numerous logistical and financial
constraints and difficult environment in which it has had to
operate. Election observers note the GoSL and political
parties have observed the constitutional independence of the
NEC and the PPRC. For the moment, the GoSL's financial crisis
appears resolved given the GoSL continues to meet its
financial commitments to election preparations.


24. (SBU) Now that the campaign season has commenced, it is
highly probable that isolated incidents of political violence
and fabricated political accusations will dominate the news
headlines as parties and their enthusiastic supporters hold
more frequent rallies and marches. Altercations between party
supporters will test the SLP's capacity to maintain the
peace, and media reports will stir emotions. The lack of
political polling makes it difficult to guess how the process
will play out, and it remains to be seen how Sierra Leoneans
who are not satisfied with the status quo will vote at the
polls.


25. (SBU) Given past ballot stuffing and vote count
manipulation, there is concern about safeguards against
electoral fraud, but to date the NEC has shown great
integrity. Election observers will be at every polling
station. Looking beyond the election, acceptance of the
results by the public, military, and political parties will
be the final hurdle, unless a Presidential runoff is required
in September. END COMMENT.
HULL