Fast Cars and Hot Times in Southwest Germany

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001872

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV ENRG PGOV GM
SUBJECT: Fast Cars and Hot Times in Southwest Germany

REF: Frankfurt 258


1. SUMMARY: The southwest German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg
(B-W) -- an economic powerhouse and conservative bulwark with a
growing environmental movement -- is waking up to climate change now
that a recent study shows that a dramatic temperature rise is
underway in the region. In response to the sobering findings, the
B-W state government has introduced a plan to expand conservation
and renewable energy sources (and has renewed calls to keep nuclear
power in Germany). As home to premium carmakers Mercedes and
Porsche, however, the state's political-industrial complex is
squarely against proposed EU regulations to broadly cap vehicle CO2
emissions. The state's experience shows how climate change can tie
even a highly prosperous region in knots. END SUMMARY.

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Soon to Be An Intemperate Zone?
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2. The states of Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) and Bavaria, in
cooperation with the German Weather Service, recently concluded a
study on the impact of global warming in southern Germany. The
results give pause: in our discussion with Dr. Manfred Loistl, the
B-W Environment Ministry's chief expert on global warming, he noted
that between 1951 and 2000, the average annual temperature in
Baden-Wuerttemberg rose by 1.5 degrees Celsius and will rise another
1.7 degrees by the year 2050 (Note: the state's temperature increase
so far is double the estimated worldwide warming of 0.7 degrees over
the past century). The average number of days below freezing shrank
by thirty days, while summer days increased by an average of twenty
days. The number of rainy days increased by eleven days per year
(25cm more annual rainfall). Forecasts for 2021 to 2050 say the
number of days over 30 degrees Celsius/86 Fahrenheit will nearly
double, while days below freezing will be halved. Dr. Loistl said
that state leaders are concerned and are prepared to invest in more
renewable energies and energy efficiency; they also feel more
strongly than ever the need to extend the life of existing nuclear
power plants.

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Energy is the Key
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3. In an effort to curb the state's CO2 emissions,
Baden-Wuerttemberg recently introduced its "Climate Protection 2010
Concept" which advocates:
-- refurbishing old buildings to make them more energy efficient
-- eco-friendly mobility networks
-- support for energy efficiency in industry, and
-- expanding use of renewable energy sources.
The state already has a sizable installed base of renewable energy
(6%); Dr. Loistl said that the B-W government will urge
ENBW/Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg (Germany's third largest energy
supplier and a major operator of nuclear power stations) to use
profits to expand renewable energy to 11% by 2010. Sources under
consideration include geothermic power, biomass, and additional
hydropower. Windpower (only 1% of alternative power in the state)
remains controversial among conservatives who criticize turbines as
unsightly in a state which is Germany's second-largest tourist
destination.


4. The state also sees nuclear energy (reftel) as critical to its
efforts to fight climate change. Under Germany's nuclear phase-out
plan, EnBW closed the nuclear power plant in Obrigheim in 2005 and
another plant in Neckarwestheim is slated for decommissioning in
early 2009. State leaders say that keeping nuclear power plants in
operation for another twenty years would reduce the state's CO2
emissions (currently 78 million tons annually) by 2-4 million tons
per year. Conversely, if nuclear plants are supplanted by
coal-fired power plants, CO2 emissions will increase by 6.4 million
tons annually. As a result, leaders in Baden-Wuerttemberg oppose
the current federal government commitment to phasing out all German
nuclear power by 2020. State politicians recognize the political
inertia against revisiting Germany's phase-out plan (enshrined in
the Coalition Agreement) but are adamant about trying to extend
reactor life.

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COMMENT: But Don't Touch My Porsche/Mercedes
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5. Governed by conservatives for decades, Baden-Wuerttemberg is
home to premium car makers Mercedes and Porsche (the state bills
itself as the "birthplace" of the automobile in 1889) which pits it
against environmentalists in debates over regulating passenger cars
emissions. In a recent meeting, Germany's auto industry association
(VDA) noted that Europe's record-setting warm winter season has
generated intense political and public pressure on the automotive
sector to "do more" about global warming. Germany's automakers --
in particular the luxury and sport-car segments -- are concerned
that European regulators will set fleetwide or Europe-wide caps on

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vehicle CO2 emissions (an often cited level is 120 grams/kilometer).
German industry representatives -- and their largely conservative
political allies -- say broad caps would substantially disadvantage
many German makers (whose brands sell on performance) versus French
and Italian makers (with more compact, mass-market vehicles).
German representatives point out that their vehicles are highly
efficient for their size and engine capacity -- and grumble
privately that Brussels regulators appear to favor French and
Italian interests. The German auto industry is also adamantly
opposed to imposing across-the-board maximum speed limits on
Germany's autobahns, which many environmentalists are calling for to
curb CO2 emissions and conserve fuel. Automaker concerns prompted
Germany to block the EU's proposed 120 g/km limit, resulting in a
130 g/km standard which will allow for the contribution of biofuels
and tires.


6. The fact that Baden-Wuerttemberg is getting warmer -- faster
than most of the globe -- came as a wake-up call. Like neighboring
Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg is wealthy and has a tremendous
technology base; some of its companies will likely "win out" from
the drive to address climate change (such as Bosch, the world's
largest automotive supplier and inventor of technologies from spark
plugs through fuel injectors to oxygen sensors). Growth has brought
its own problems: the region's cities and jammed highways will be
hard hit by new diesel-particulate restrictions, for instance.
Greens polled ten percent of the electorate in 2006 state elections
-- a new high -- and now control important mayorships including
Freiburg (a hub for solar technology). The state's long-standing
conservative/free-democratic (CDU-FDP) coalition is sometimes
ambitious -- in its 2006 coalition agreement, it set a goal of
reducing per-capita energy use by twenty percent over ten years --
but is finding that economic growth and wealth create their own
dilemmas in dealing with public expectations surrounding the climate
change debate. END COMMENT.


7. This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin and Consulate
General Munich.

POWELL