TAJIK POLITICAL PARTIES: DOWN, BUT NOT DEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000265

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK POLITICAL PARTIES: DOWN, BUT NOT DEAD


CLASSIFIED BY: TJACOBSON, AMBASSADOR, STATE, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Tajikistan's political parties are slowly
getting back on their feet after being completely marginalized
in the November 2006 presidential election. In a series of
meetings with party leaders in January and February 2007, PolOff
discussed each party's direction leading up to the 2010
parliamentary elections. The Democratic Party of Tajikistan
informed PolOff of key developments, including the move of its
chairman from a holding cell to a bona fide prison and the
likelihood of a resolution to the party's internal strife. A
new political movement led by an exiled Tajik journalist in
Moscow is making claims in the media it aims to peacefully
overthrow the government. Although Tajik political parties
suffered a moral setback in the last election, the field is
still active. END SUMMARY.

PARTIES REFOCUS ON THEIR BASES


2. (SBU) Members of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan
in Dushanbe and Khujand admitted that after the presidential
election, the government has loosened its monitoring and
pressure on political parties. They predict that in the next
few years, political parties will be more openly active. The
Social Democratic Party plans to focus on strengthening its own
party and reaching out to the people by building up its
services. It will open a new women's department and protect
social rights by organizing lawyers in Khujand and Khatlon to
provide advice on civil rights.


3. (SBU) The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan is also
redirecting its focus. In previous years, its base was
comprised of Tajikistan's Muslims and the party reached out to
Islamic nations. It will now shift its programs to attract the
intelligentsia and ally itself with Western and Eastern nations,
not only those with Islamic populations. The Islamic
Renaissance Party's biggest concern this year is to see its
former chairman, Said Abdullo Nuri, honored as a state hero
during celebrations of the 10-year anniversary of the signing of
the peace agreement. Nuri was instrumental in reaching the
agreement which ended the Tajik Civil War. The party will also
introduce a new draft law on religion to supplant the
controversial draft law circulated, but not passed in 2006.


4. (C) The government's pocket parties, the Communist Party of
Tajikistan, the Agrarian Party of Tajikistan, the Party of
Economic Reform and the registered Socialist Party of Tajikistan
continue to support President Rahmonov's agenda. Rahmonov's own
political party, the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan has
become bolder after it reaffirmed its dominance in the November
presidential election and February local bi-elections. Muso
Asozoda, Head of Administration for the People's Democratic
Party openly admits the party will never support the Islamic
Renaissance Party, but is willing to work with other parties.
He stated that Tajikistan's transition period has passed and the
peace process is now part the past.

ISKANDAROV- OUT OF DETENTION AND INTO JAIL


5. (SBU) Rahmatullo Valiev, Democratic Party of Tajikistan's
Deputy Chairman and de facto head, called PolOff into his office
February 18 to inform PolOff that security officials moved the
Democratic Party of Tajikistan's Chairman, Mahmmadruzzi
Iskandarov, from his isolated detention cell at the Ministry of
Security to a prison specifically for government workers
convicted of crimes. Iskandarov was detained in April 2005 and
formally convicted in October 2005 for various crimes such as
corruption and embezzlement. Although some convictions may be
legitimate, consensus among the international community
indicates the trial was politically motivated and that
authorities kidnapped him from Moscow and brought him back to
Dushanbe to stand trial. Authorities stated they will permit
Iskandarov's brothers to visit him in a few weeks time.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WITHOUT ISKANDAROV


6. (SBU) After Iskandarov's imprisonment, the Democratic Party
of Tajikistan faced internal strife that threatened to ruin the
party he built. Prior to the November 2006 presidential

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election, the Ministry of Justice sent a letter to the Central
Commission for Elections and Referenda recognizing a faction of
the Democratic Party led by Masud Sobirov as the official party.
However, Sobirov was never properly elected chairman by the
party.


7. (C) Valiev told PolOff that he has been meeting with Deputy
Minister of Justice Rustam Mengliev to discuss his party's legal
status. Mengliev urged the Democratic Party to take the issue
to court and promised that the issue would be settled in
Valiev's favor. He admitted that the Ministry of Justice made a
mistake in registering the first split-away faction of the party
and would restore the party to Valiev. Mengliev allegedly
refused a $50,000 bribe from Saidjavhar Ismonov, who also wanted
to take over leadership of the Democratic Party. Ismonov's
registration was denied by the Ministry of Justice after he
openly admitted to bribing the Ministry.


8. (C) Valiev told PolOff the party congress will meet in the
summer to establish a new strategy, including electing a new
chairman. He is currently in discussion with potential
financiers.


9. (C) COMMENT: Valiev's sudden positive relationship with the
Ministry of Justice begs the question: what is Mengliev
receiving in return for agreeing to register Valiev's Democratic
Party faction? The decision to find a new chairman and a
partnership with the notorious Ministry of Justice may mean a
closer relationship to the government. Given the government's
strategy of creating pocket parties, the Democratic Party could
be its next victim. Valiev previously touted that the
government created the split-away factions of the party to
attempt to create a Democratic Party with allegiance to
Rahmonov. In the end, the government managed to get Valiev's
faction of the party to work with it and may end up
marginalizing Iskandarov. END COMMENT.

"PATRIOTS" ON THE MOVE


10. (U) In an interview published on Fergana.ru, Dodojon
Atoulloev revealed a new opposition movement named Vatandor
(Patriot) aimed at deposing President Rahmonov. The movement's
motto is "New way, new power, new ideas and new life."
Atoulloev claims that former ministers, former Prime Ministers,
members of the Parliament and other influential leaders belong
to the movement, though he declined to name names, citing
security reasons. Members allegedly secretly met in London,
Berlin, Washington DC, Tashkent, Almaty and Moscow. After
ousting Rahmonov, the movement members would like to set up a
pluralistic, democratic government with free and fair elections.
In the interview, Atoulloev criticized Rahmonov's authoritarian
rule and corrupt inner circle. Atoulloev insists that the
movement will work within the framework of the law to overthrow
Rahmonov.


11. (C) Atoulloev is an independent journalist who has lived
in Moscow since 1992. Atoulloev informed Embassy sources that
he has met with Mahmud Khudaiberdiyev on several occasions.
Khudaiberdiyev, a former Colonel, attempted to stage an uprising
in the Sughd region in 1998. After failing, he allegedly
retreated to Uzbekistan, to continue training his troops for a
future coup. Tajik journalists based in Moscow have claimed
that in the past few months Khudaiberdiyev has been on the
lookout for a politician to lead a political party after he
overthrows the current government. (COMMENT: Given Atoulloev's
connections with Khudaiberdiyev and recent news that
Khudaiberdiyev is ready to attempt another coup in Tajikistan,
he could be one of the influential figures behind Vatandor. END
COMMENT.)


12. (C) COMMENT: Rahmonov has successfully consolidated power
and has no reason to fear any of the traditional, registered
political parties. Vatandor is not likely to be any more
successful at opposing the administration than the others.
However, Khudaiberdiyev has long been a boogey-man and source of
concern for Rahmonov and his security apparatus and if he is
truly behind Vatandor, the Tajik government may react strongly
to eliminate the threat. Ironically, it is precisely due to the
Rahmonov's clampdown and failure of Tajikistan's political
parties to play a meaningful role in politics and society that
leads to movements such as Vatandor. END COMMENT.
HUSHEK