Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DUSHANBE1717
2007-11-30 03:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

DRYING OUT IN DUSHANBE

Tags:  ETRD PGOV ECON ELTN TI 
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VZCZCXRO9737
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1717/01 3340326
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 300326Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1444
INFO RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 0206
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 2339
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2254
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 2313
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 2022
RHMFIUU/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//USDP/ISA/NESA//
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 3369
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001717 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD PGOV ECON ELTN TI
SUBJECT: DRYING OUT IN DUSHANBE

DUSHANBE 00001717 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001717

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD PGOV ECON ELTN TI
SUBJECT: DRYING OUT IN DUSHANBE

DUSHANBE 00001717 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) Summary: An October decree by Uzbek President Karimov
governing the transit of alcohol and tobacco products has
created a beer shortage in Tajikistan. Tajikistan is highly
reliant on Uzbek roads and rail lines to import products from
Russia, and Uzbekistan has generally allowed goods to pass
through unhindered. However, continuing discontent with Tajik
plans to build dams and hydropower stations that would restrict
the flow of water to Uzbekistan has precipitated new tactics.
In order to loosen Uzbekistan's grip on transit in and out of
Tajikistan, the Tajik government has prioritized major road
construction projects to provide transport options north, south,
and east. End Summary.

Beer in Dushanbe

--------------


2. (SBU) Beer is not a major part of most Tajiks' palette.
According to the Tajik State Statistics Committee, Tajiks
consumed only $850,000 worth of beer in 2006. With the local
average price for imported Russian beer at $1.00 - $1.30 per
bottle, this is enough for one of every six Tajiks to drink a
single bottle of beer the entire year. A representative of a
local beer distributor believes these figures are roughly
accurate, due to the fact that "30% of the population does not
drink beer at all because of their fanatical religious beliefs."
Also, Tajiks prefer vodka.


3. (SBU) Tajikistan has only two major importers and
distributors of imported beer, Inter-Trade and Shohona.
Inter-Trade Company is headed by Mansur Ostanaev, who picked up
his father's business connections through the Soviet Intourist
Hotel network. Inter-Trade was established in 2002 with
exclusive rights to sell Russian Baltika beer in Tajikistan.
Shohona Co. is the exclusive distributor of other Russian-made
beers: Zolotaya Bochka, Holsten, Miller, Klinskoe, Tolstyak and
Kozel. Shohona's General Director Navruz Kosim is rumored to
have connections with the Mayor of Dushanbe and with President
Rahmon's family. Most imported beer comes from Russia, where it
takes on average 21 days to ship Baltika beer from the Samara
distributor of Baltika Co.


4. (SBU) EmbOff met with Jamshed Ruziev, Deputy Director for

Sales of Inter-Trade on November 28. Ruziev worked for Baltika
Co. in Russia until 2002 as a distributor of Baltika in
northeast Russia. He told EmbOffs that the biggest problem the
company is facing is the new Uzbek customs regime on excise
goods crossing Uzbekistan, including vodka, tobacco, wine and
beer. Companies must pay up to $80,000 per rail car as a
deposit to Uzbek customs to ensure that their cargo crosses
Uzbek territory. Tajik traders then have a difficult time
getting the money back from the Uzbek government once the funds
have gone into the general budget account. Representatives from
Inter-Trade and Shohona are currently in Tashkent to resolve
this issue. Ruziev believes these new regulations are related
to the tensions between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on water and
hydro issues.

Foreign Policy Goal: Pulling Away From Uzbekistan

-------------- --------------
--------------


5. (U) After September 2001, Tajikistan began to break away from
Russian influence by grasping opportunities from the West to
participate in the Global War on Terror and supporting the war
in Afghanistan. Tajikistan's foreign policy centered around
finding new friends that could support its economic development
in order to leverage its relationship with Russia. While still
greatly dependent on Russia, Tajikistan became more of an equal
partner with its giant neighbor.


6. (SBU) Tajikistan's new foreign policy goal is gaining
independence from Uzbek influence. Towards this goal,
Tajikistan has pursued major energy and infrastructure projects
oriented away from its troublesome neighbor. Uzbekistan has
reacted to Tajikistan's pulling away by restricting Tajik visas,
and by limiting oil and gas exports to Tajikistan. More
recently, Uzbekistan has dragged its feet in fulfilling its
agreement to transmit electricity from Turkmenistan to
Tajikistan.

DUSHANBE 00001717 002.2 OF 003




7. (SBU) While Uzbekistan has sparred with Tajikistan over
electricity transmission and dam construction, it has generally
allowed trains and trucks to pass relatively freely through its
territory to Tajikistan. Due to the Soviet-era construction of
rail and road links that criss-cross both countries, Tajikistan
is highly dependent on Uzbekistan to connect to Russia and
Europe. However, the import routes through Kyrgyzstan, China,
and Afghanistan have begun to take on a larger share of
Tajikistan's trade. Tajikistan has prioritized major road
infrastructure projects whose major purpose is providing
alternate routes in and out of the country avoiding Uzbekistan.

All Roads Lead Away From Uzbekistan: The Southern Route to
Afghanistan

-------------- --------------
-------------- --------------


8. (U) Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrokhon Zarifi November 22 met
with Afghan Ambassador to Tajikistan Muhammad Khairkhoh to
discuss issues related to handling cargo traffic via the
U.S.-funded Nizhny Pyanj bridge. The bridge is now open for
limited traffic after sitting idle for two months following its
official opening in August, but the two governments have not
fully engaged on border cooperation. The Japanese road
connecting the bridge to Dusti is under construction, and local
news agency Avesta reports that the Japanese International
Cooperation Agency will announce a tender for the reconstruction
of the road from Qurghon-Teppa to Dusti by the end of the year.
This will complete the road from Dushanbe to the Nizhny Pyanj
bridge, which connects to a good road to Kabul and further to
Pakistan.


9. (U) The Times of Central Asia reported that the Iranian
Minister of Energy Said Parviz Fattah discussed construction of
a tunnel 50 kilometers south of Dushanbe with Tajik Minister of
Transportation and Communications Abdurahim Ashur on November

10. Fattah voiced Tehran's readiness to start construction of
the $140 million `Chormaghzak' tunnel project after feasibility
studies are completed.

The Northern Routes to Kyrgyzstan

-------------- -


10. (U) The $110 million Iranian-built Anzob tunnel will be open
for traffic while under construction this winter and connects
Dushanbe to Khujand in the north. With the Anzob pass closed
during the winter, the only other routes connecting Tajikistan's
northern and southern regions pass through Uzbekistan, which
relations have made onerous in recent years.


11. (U) On November 3, the Tajik government and the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) signed a loan agreement on the Regional
Road Corridor Improvement Project designed to facilitate the
completion or improvement of key sections of the road from
Dushanbe to the Tajik-Kyrgyz Border and further on to Osh,
Kyrgyzstan. The total cost of the project is $76.4 million,
with $12.4 million of the ADB's $53.4 million contribution
provided in the form of grant. The Tajik government
contribution amounts to $22.8 million. The project will improve
a part of the regional corridor from Nimich to Karamyk
(Tajikistan's component) and from Karamyk to Saritash
(Kyrgyzstan's component) as well as enhance border
infrastructures for strengthening regional trade and
cooperation.

The Eastern Route to China

--------------


12. (U) According to Avesta news reports, Al-Abdulahad, a
Kuwaiti-Lebanese engineering & consulting company, will conduct
a feasibility study for the Kulob-Khaillakum road construction
project. The feasibility study is being funded by the Kuwaiti
Fund which has allocated a $1 million grant to Tajikistan. The
$140 million project envisages construction of three bridges on
separate sections of the 98-kilometer road. The project has
funding from the Islamic Development Bank, Kuwaiti Fund, Saudi
Fund, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

DUSHANBE 00001717 003.2 OF 003


(OPEC),and the Tajik government.


13. (U) Additionally, Avesta reported that the second and third
phases of the Shagon-Zigar road construction project will be
launched this week. According to the Executive Director of the
project Ismonqul Shoqulov, "Iranian Sober International, the
contractor general of the project, has already delivered main
equipment to the construction site." Under the Tajik-Iranian
agreement, 60% of the workforce will be Tajiks. The road along
the Tajik-Afghan border links eastern Khorog west with
Khaillakum and further towards Dushanbe. The second and third
phases cover a 28.5 kilometer stretch of road for $29.8 million.
The Asian Development Bank is financing 87% of the total cost,
with the Tajik government covering the remaining 13%. The two
phases are expected to be implemented within four years.


14. (U) Between Dushanbe and Kulob, the Chinese contractor
reports that the 2,200 meter Shar-Shar tunnel is half-way
completed. The tunnel should reduce the travel time between
Dushanbe and Kulob by 35-40 minutes. The tunnel is being funded
through a $30 million Chinese concessional loan agreement, with
Tajikistan contributing an additional $8 million.

Comment

--------------


15. (SBU) Local press has not yet picked up on Uzbekistan
limiting Tajikistan's alcohol intake. Popular sentiment already
rails against Uzbekistan for limiting Tajikistan's energy supply
and its harsh visa restrictions; earlier this fall, rumors
spread around Dushanbe about a possible Tajik-Uzbek military
confrontation, following border skirmishes between Tajik and
Uzbek border guards and local citizens. While these rumors
failed to materialize, Tajiks clearly view Uzbekistan's
treatment of them as unfair, and favorably view any plans that
will reduce their reliance on Uzbekistan. End Comment.
HUSHEK