HIP HIP HURRAH FOR PRESIDENT RAHMON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001688

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV TI
SUBJECT: HIP HIP HURRAH FOR PRESIDENT RAHMON


CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Hushek, Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy
Dushanbe, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Recent events -- the celebrations of the sixteenth
anniversary of President's Rahmon's election as Chairman of the
Supreme Council of Tajikistan, and a World Cup Soccer match
against Singapore -- highlighted the nascent cult of personality
springing up around President Rahmon. Publicity for these
events emphasized that Tajikistan's modern history starts with
Rahmon's assumption of leadership; not with the republic's
independence from the Soviet Union. End Summary.

Khujand Celebrations - Rahmonistan
============================


2. (C) This year the Government largely skipped celebrating
Tajikistan's sixteenth anniversary of independence on September
9; there were a few posters noting the anniversary, but no large
ceremonies or other events. On November 16 we saw why; the
anniversary of the real start of Tajikistan's national life.


3. (C) The President went to Khujand for the 15th anniversary of
the 16th Session of the Supreme Soviet of Tajikistan, which
elected him chairman. The 1992 meeting of the Supreme Soviet
was held in the northern city since it could not convene safely
in the capital which was partially occupied by rebel forces.
The full diplomatic corps along with most members of parliament
and high government officials received invitations to
participate in the 15th anniversary in Khujand, where the
streets were lined with posters of Rahmon and slogans reading
"fifteen years of the new Tajikistan" -- a clear indication that
Tajikistan's modern history begins with Rahmon's accession to
power, not with independence.


4. (C) The Arbob Palace in Khujand was the venue for the main
celebrations. It brought together symbols from several eras.
The palace is a reproduction of a tsarist palace is Saint
Petersburg, the Petrodvorets, and is located on one of the
largest collective farms in Leninabad (now Khujand) where,
fifteen years ago, the Supreme Soviet (still called that a year
after independence) selected Rahmon as their chairman -- "a
decision which history has proven to be correct," according to
multiple speakers at the anniversary celebration.


5. (C) Rahmon entered the historic chamber to martial music, a
standing audience clapping in unison, and a disembodied voice
announcing the arrival of his Excellency. His hour long speech
was carried live on Tajik television. Following it were ninety
minutes of Tajik officials and citizens praising the president,
and another hour of patriotic music and dance. There was a also
a short film encapsulating Tajikistan's history, depicting the
ancient King Somoni, followed by pictures of the civil war, and
then a bemedalled Rahmon entering to make peace, embracing
various bearded leaders of the opposition. The film concluded
with footage showing Tajikistan's prosperity -- dams, electric
transmission lines and cotton harvests. Some of the observers
at the ceremonies did not miss the irony: the 2007 cotton
harvest was 25 percent below target, Tajikistan's big dam
projects are badly behind schedule, and Khujand is one of many
cities in Tajikistan already rationing electricity for the
winter.

Soccer Match Shenanigans
==================


6. (C) Two days later, EmbOffs attended the Tajikistan-Singapore
World Cup qualifying match at the central stadium in Dushanbe.
(Tajikistan lost on aggregate.) The atmosphere was dramatically
different than prior World Cup qualifying matches because
President Rahmon attended.


7. (C) At an earlier match, against Bangladesh in October,
ticket prices were 5 somoni. MOI officers were very strict
about letting in only people with tickets. The stadium looked
like it was pretty run down, and it was at best half-full. The
crowd was not particularly animated, and there were about 100
security officers present. The match was not well-publicized.
Tajikistan won, 5-0 (and advanced 6-1 on aggregate). Rahmon did
not attend.


8. (C) However, for the November 18 match, authorities admitted
all comers free of charge. The stadium was packed - the

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announced attendance was over 20,000, and it was standing room
only. Emboffs missed the beginning of the game, but Rahmon
attended and sat in the stadium's presidential box. The stadium
had clearly been spruced up - large banners covered the very
dated and worn structures on the side of the stadium opposite
the presidential box. EmbOffs estimated that one third of the
audience crowd were members of the security services, all in
uniform, and occupying the first 15 or so rows around the entire
stadium, forming a ring of uniformed security personnel. It was
clear that they were not there simply for security -- they were
leading the cheers and performed "the wave." A military band
was there to simulate the festive mood that one usually observes
at a European or Latin American soccer match. Security service
officers were observed specifically ordering the cheers and the
wave, coordinating their actions by radio. The enthusiasm of
the civilian soccer fans did not quite match that of the
uniformed personnel (although PolOff took the time to teach two
young Tajiks how to do the wave). A representative from the
government's Committee for Sports, Youth, and Tourism told us
that sporting events are usually free when the President
attends, and that the President had "invited" many people,
including the military.

Comment - Kidding Himself
=====================


9. (C) We see no sign that Rahmon's grip on power is slipping,
yet his nascent cult of personality pales in comparison to that
of some of his neighbors. However, the comical
self-aggrandizing of his recent celebrations as the country
heads into another difficult winter of electricity shortages and
high inflation, along with the steady dismantling of the
regional power sharing arrangements which helped end the civil
war, suggest Rahmon is increasingly isolated and unaware of the
shortcomings of his regime. End Comment.
HUSHEK