Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DUSHANBE1680
2007-11-23 12:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

ALL THE KING'S MEN

Tags:  PREL PGOV TI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3834
RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHDBU #1680/01 3271216
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231216Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
INFO RHMFISS/USCINCSOC MACDILL AFB FL
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2243
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 2324
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2298
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2016
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 3308
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001680 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV TI
SUBJECT: ALL THE KING'S MEN

REF: DUSHANBE 1423

CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Hushek, Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Embassy
Dushanbe, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001680

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV TI
SUBJECT: ALL THE KING'S MEN

REF: DUSHANBE 1423

CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Hushek, Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Embassy
Dushanbe, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: One year after President Rahmon's re-election,
Tajiks from the Kulyob region hold approximately two-thirds of
the top positions in government. While this consolidation of
power has been ongoing for several years, some in President
Rahmon's party have started to question whether his top advisors
are serving the country - and the President - well. End summary.

Consolidation

==========


2. (C) Prior to his re-election in November 2006, President
Rahmon appointed Tajiks from Kulyob, the President's home
district, to a disproportionately high number of positions in
the government. During the year since his reelection, the
President has continued to consolidate his hold over the
government by ensuring that Kulyobis hold most of the top
ministerial, law enforcement, and revenue-related positions.
Kulyobis now head approximately two-thirds of all of the state
institutions, including the Ministries of Interior, Foreign
Affairs, Finance, Defense, and Energy (the President's father in
law, no less),and the State Committees on National Security and
on Investment. Kulyobis head the prosecutorial service, the
Supreme Court, and the Supreme Economic Court. Fourteen of
Tajikistan's 20 ambassadors are from Kulyob.


3. (C) President Rahmon has increasingly turned to members of
his own family and Tajiks from his home region of Danghara
(which is in Kulyob District) to fill sensitive government
positions. The State Economic Advisor, the Chief of the
Presidential Administration, and State Advisor on Human
Resources, are Dangharans. One of the President's sons-in-law
is the Deputy Minister of Finance.


4. (C) In the Ministry the embassy knows best, Foreign Affairs,
the pattern of regional favoritism is striking. Several
ambassadorial positions have gone to Kulyobis: Brussels, Moscow,
Berlin, and Astana. New ambassadors to the United States,
Japan, and the OSCE are from Danghara, the President's home
village. (The new Ambassador to Japan was previously the
Chairman of the Committee on Youth, Sports, and Tourism). Over

the course of the year, President Rahmon has placed two of his
daughters in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one as the Chief
of Consular Affairs (in charge of visa decisions for troublesome
foreigners),the other in the Department for International
Organizations.

Poor Political Management

====================


5. (C) It is commonly reported in our discussions with Tajik
interlocutors, even those close to the president, that Rahmon is
strengthening his position through nepotism, and that he has not
focused on appointing competent managers to key governmental
posts. Some observers in Tajikistan have accused government
officials of being poor political managers who are out of touch
with reality (reftel). This criticism is based on what they see
as an ill-guided policy on religion, poor management of the
economy, and failure to control corruption.


6. (C) Members of the President's own political party, the
People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan, have begun commenting
to embassy officers that the President's inner circle prevents
him from effectively managing the country. In a late-October
meeting, Muso Asozoda, head of the party's Dushanbe office, told
PolOff that the President has surrounded himself with "people
who do not tell him the truth," and that President Rahmon and
his advisors have become "divorced from reality." He said the
President had attempted to take control of too many aspects of
the government, and that he "cannot possibly fulfill all of the
commitments he has made."


7. (C) Asozoda said that the government's economic policy had
failed on several fronts, and that corruption remains a major
problem. However, his views were not totally contrary to the
party line. Regarding the government's increasingly restrictive
religious policy, Asozoda said that the government can justly
control religious life in Tajikistan. PolOff asked Asozoda why

DUSHANBE 00001680 002 OF 002


so many officials refused to speak with international
representatives about the restrictions, and why there had been
so little transparency surrounding the new draft law on
religion. Asozoda suggested that government officials are
afraid of "making a mistake" by saying the wrong thing.

Changes, But Not Soon

==================


8. (C) Asozoda said that many in the party recognize that
President Rahmon has not surrounded himself with competent
advisors, and predicted that changes would be made to the
President's inner circle. He cautioned, however, that these
changes would not come soon. Recent news articles reported that
Prime Minister Oqil Oqilov will have to step down in February
when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 63 years. Many
of the contenders, according to the press, are Kulyobis.


9. (C) Comment: Asozoda's comments are consistent with our
observations that Tajiks are increasingly discontent with the
direction in which the country is going on a range of issues.
The economic situation for most Tajiks has deteriorated over the
past year, especially as the cost of basic foodstuffs has more
than doubled in the last few months. While we have heard
criticism from government supporters, it is rare to hear
criticism in such a direct manner against President Rahmon's
inner circle from a member of the President's party. End
Comment.
HUSHEK