DURBAN POLITICAL UPDATE - ISSUE 1

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000061

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S - RMARBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM SF
SUBJECT: DURBAN POLITICAL UPDATE - ISSUE 1

REF: DURBAN 54

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CLASSIFIED BY: Eugene S. Young, Consul General.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (U) IN THIS ISSUE:
- Situation Remains Tense in Ezinqoleni Municipality
- President Mbeki Visits Inkatha Freedom Party Stronghold
- KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health's Head of Department
Suspended


2. (U) RECENT CABLE TRAFFIC:
- DURBAN 54: ANC Secures Simply Majority in KwaZulu-Natal
- DURBAN 59: Buthelezi Preaches More of the Same at IFP Annual
Conference

SITUATION REMAINS TENSE IN EZINQOLENI MUNICIPALITY


3. (C) Tensions remain high in Ezinqoleni municipality following
the recent floor crossing period in September (see REFTEL).
During the floor crossing period, Ezinqoleni Mayor Amos Mpisi
crossed from the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) to the African
National Congress (ANC),allowing the ANC to assume control of
the municipality. The situation in the municipality then
deteriorated, following claims by the IFP that five of their
members went missing. Amongst the five were two municipal
councilors, two municipal workers, and the Ugu district IFP
Youth Brigade Leader. The IFP maintains that their members were
abducted by plain clothes police. The five were missing for
three days, then reappeared at the Westville police station.
The ANC accused the five IFP members of plotting to kill Mayor
Mpisi, in revenge of his betrayal of the IFP. On October 1, a
regional court charged the five IFP members with intimidation
and conspiring to to murder Mpisi. The charges were dropped on
October 11 due to a lack of evidence. Senior Public Prosecutor
Previnash Naidoo said the Director of Public Prosecutions may
recharge the men following the completion of an ongoing police
investigation.


4. (C) Concerning the incident, IFP President Prince Mangosuthu
Buthelezi accused the ANC on October 13 of reverting to "old
apartheid-era style" tactics where the "resources of the State
are being mobilized against Opposition parties for political
ends." He elaborated, stating that they were taken away to
"places they did not know" and "assaulted by white and Indian
men in balaclavas."


5. (U) Prior to floor crossing, on August 20, two IFP members
were convicted of the 2006 murder of ANC Councilor Zakhele Cele,
also in Ezinqoleni. The District High Court found that IFP
Councilor Mkhishwa Khawula and his cousin, Fanobani Ndovela,
were guilty of the ANC councilor's murder, as well as the murder
of his three bodyguards. Cele had won a hotly contested
election in Ezinqoleni in June 2006, but was murdered three days
after his victory. Cele's seat was filled, following an
election, by another ANC member.


6. (C) COMMENT: The IFP's allegations of politically-motivated
abductions are worrisome in light of the history of political
violence in Ezinqoleni. Cele's murder raised fears in 2006 that
more wide-scale political violence could return to KwaZulu-Natal
(KZN). Given the still intense rivalry between the ANC and IFP
in KZN, this kind of political violence and intimidation is
always possible. Post will monitor the situation and report any
widening of politically-based conflict. END COMMENT.

PRESIDENT MBEKI VISITS INKATHA FREEDOM PARTY STRONGHOLD


7. (C) President Mbeki visited KZN on October 6-7 for a
presidential "imbizo," or gathering. The gathering was held in
Ladysmith and Estcourt in the uThukela district, a long-time
stronghold of the IFP. While IFP members rallied during Mbeki's
visit, the visit was peaceful. If anything, IFP supporters were
reportedly ambivalent about the visit. The visit marked Mbeki's
first "imbizo" in the province since allegations were made in
early 2007 that Jacob Zuma supporters were trying to make KZN a
no-go zone for Mbeki. However, no pro-Jacob Zuma ANC supporters
showed up during the visit. KZN political analyst Protas
Madlala commented on October 13 that uThukela was selected by
Mbeki's team as it was a "soft target because disruption by
pro-Zuma supporters seemed unlikely." Madlala predicted,
however, that Mbeki would not get much support there, as "Zuma
has support there, even from IFP supporters. I think the moment
you put Zuma into an ANC box you start to misunderstand the
issue. It has become a human issue now, not an ANC succession
issue, or an ANC/IFP issue."


8. (C) Mbeki was asked by a local resident whether he would
change South Africa's constitution in order to allow him a third
term as the country's President. Mbeki replied that "you should

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not sit in this chair too long. You should not turn into a
hereditary chair which can be passed on to your son. The way I
see it, is we should not change this constitution of ours...I'm
not a traditional leader...I don't want to stay for longer than
I should." Mbeki reportedly then tried to convince traditional
leaders present at the gathering that his comments were intended
as a joke. While he may have been joking, support for
traditional leaders remains strong in rural KZN, and his comment
was likely taken as an affront by those present.


9. (C) COMMENT: Madlala's comments are valid in KZN, given that
there is a prevailing opinion that Zuma is a "victim" of a
conspiracy against him. Zuma's support remains strong amongst
rural Zulus, most of whom believe in an anti-Zuma conspiracy.
This view, particularly among ANC members, has served to keep
support for Zuma at a high level, with many supporters noting
that if the National Prosecuting Authority recharges Zuma their
support would increase, not decrease. END COMMENT.

KWAZULU-NATAL DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH'S HEAD OF DEPARTMENT SUSPENDED


10. (C) The Head of Department (HOD) at the KZN Department of
Health, Dr. Busi Nyembezi, was suspended by the KZN provincial
government on October 17. HOD Nyembezi was suspended following
an investigation, commissioned by Premier (Governor) of KZN
Sibusiso Ndebele, which found that she used her position to
award Department contracts to her own private company. HOD
Nyembezi lashed out at Member of Executive Council (MEC) Peggy
Nkonyeni, stating that she was a scapegoat for MEC Nkonyeni's
"incompetence." HOD Nyembezi said her relationship with MEC
Nkonyeni broke down when she was unable to follow MEC Nkonyeni's
guidance. HOD Nyembezi further stated that, on a scale of 1 to
10, she would give MEC Nkonyeni a "one, and I'm being generous."
(NOTE: The MEC is the equivalent of a provincial minister and
is the political head of a department, whereas the HOD is the
administrative head. END NOTE)


11. (C) COMMENT: The dispute between the MEC and HOD will
likely have a negative impact on the KZN Department of Health as
it is already overwhelmed, like the rest of South Africa, by
staffing shortages as well as HIV/AIDS. The conflict may also
affect the USG's ability to efficiently work with the Department
on HIV/AIDS projects under the President's Emergency Plan for
AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). Dr. Nyembezi had been seen by many in KZN
as more effective than her difficult predecessor, Ronald
Green-Thompson, who was promoted to a senior advisor position in
the national Department of Health. END COMMENT.
YOUNG