IRELAND: NIE HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR CONTINUED

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 000883

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND: NIE HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR CONTINUED
DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE ON IRAN

REF: STATE 162558

Classified By: DCM Robert Faucher; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) POLOFF delivered reftel demarche on December 4, 2007
to Michael Gaffey, Director, Middle East and North Africa
Division, Department of Foreign Affairs. Gaffey welcomed the
NIE acknowledgment that Iran is not an immediate nuclear
threat. The report's finding, he said, that pressure from
the international community has helped forestall Iranian
nuclear weapons development since 2003 validates the EU's
insistence on continued diplomatic dialogue with Iran. At
the same time, Gaffey said, Ireland, the international
community, and especially Iran's close neighbors, continue to
lack confidence in Iran and have grounds to remain seriously
concerned about Iran's intentions. Gaffey noted Ireland's
alarm at Iran's continued intransigence in complying with
UNSCRs and its failure to fully cooperate with the IAEA (as
reported recently by IAEA Chief Muhammad el-Baradei).


2. (C) Gaffey stated that the NIE report should not throw
the international community off course, especially now that
the usefulness of international pressure has been verified.
Firm, decisive, and unified international action on Iran is
now needed more than ever, he said. Gaffey noted that the EU
has been debating autonomous sanctions against Iran (though,
as yet, without conclusions) and that Ireland is hearing that
Russia and China are increasingly willing to negotiate a
third -- albeit somewhat weak -- UNSCR on Iran. Gaffey
anticipated that the EU would wait to see what action is
taken by the UNSC before deciding how to proceed -- a
decision, he said, that was unlikely before January 2008.
FOLEY