Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DUBLIN748
2007-09-27 12:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dublin
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR FOREIGN MINISTER DERMOT AHERN'S

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON ETRD EINV MOPPS MARR EI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000748 

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE - YODER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ETRD EINV MOPPS MARR EI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR FOREIGN MINISTER DERMOT AHERN'S
MEETING WITH THE SECRETARY ON OCTOBER 3


Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000748

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE - YODER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ETRD EINV MOPPS MARR EI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR FOREIGN MINISTER DERMOT AHERN'S
MEETING WITH THE SECRETARY ON OCTOBER 3


Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) The twin political successes of restoration of the
Northern Ireland Assembly (May 8, 2007) and the re-election
of the Fianna Fail party into power (May 24, 2007) will be
the backdrop to Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern's meeting with
the Secretary on October 3. The Government of Ireland has
expressed its gratitude for the role the United States played
in the Northern Ireland peace process for many years and
appreciates our continued support as the focus in the North
turns to economic growth and reconciliation. Ireland hopes
to use its experience in the North to promote international
conflict resolution activities; the Department of Foreign
Affairs has established a Conflict Resolution Unit to that
end. Darfur is of particular interest to Minister Ahern
following his 2006 visit to the region. Ireland has taken an
active role through the European Union in working to improve
conditions in the Middle East and Kosovo, and is more
inclined than some European counties to take decisive action
in Burma. Irish Government concerns about the status of
illegal Irish citizens in the U.S. arises perennially. The
Secretary last met Foreign Minister Ahern on December 1, 2005

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in Washington. End summary.

The Domestic Political Background
--------------


2. (SBU) The May 2007 election brought Fianna Fail and
Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern back to power in a
coalition government for an unprecedented third five-year
term. Coalition members joining Fianna Fail were the Green
Party and the Progressive Democrats. While relations among
the three coalition partners will probably not be quite as
smooth as in the previous coalition (which comprised Fianna
Fail and the Progressive Democrats),the new government has
settled down to business as usual. In recent months the
Mahon Tribunal has been investigating allegations of
corruption against the Taoiseach when he was Minister of

Finance in the early 1990s. However, while bruised, the
Taoiseach does not appear to have suffered politically. The
coalition is intact; on September 26 the Taoiseach handily
survived a vote of no confidence on the issue. In terms of
immediate U.S. interests, despite Green Party resistance, the
new government remains committed to facilitating U.S.
military transits at Shannon and Dublin airports. (1,973
flights ferried 281,000 troops through Shannon in 2006.)

Sustained Economic Success
--------------


3. (SBU) For two decades the Irish economy has been booming.
Growth has been supported by a host of factors including a
well-educated work force, low taxes, a relatively open
economy, and a healthy dollop of foreign direct investment --
primarily from the U.S. In fact, U.S. investment stock in
Ireland stands at $62 billion; in 2006 American investment
totaled 67 percent of foreign direct investment in Ireland.
Such success continued in 2006 with the Irish economy
remaining a pacesetter in Europe, registering roughly five
percent GDP growth and virtual full employment for the third
consecutive year. Economic prosperity and the availability
of jobs have attracted an estimated 300,000 (mostly Eastern
European) migrants since 2004, reversing Ireland's
long-standing image as a country of outward migration.
Roughly one in four migrants work in construction, and a
potential vulnerability for the economy is the slowdown now
underway in the previously red-hot housing market. Another
concern is Ireland's ability to compete with low-cost
economies, such as India and China, for U.S. foreign direct
investment, one of the drivers of Ireland's Celtic Tiger
success. Economists caution that Ireland is also vulnerable
to inflation, which is now close to 5 percent.

Bilateral Agenda Items
--------------


4. (SBU) Irish Government sources say that Foreign Minister
Ahern will raise the following issues during his meeting with
the Secretary.


5. (SBU) Northern Ireland. Anchored in the 1998 Good Friday
Agreement and the 2006 St. Andrew's Agreement, the Northern
Ireland Assembly (Stormont) was restored in May 2007 for the
first time since October 2002, led by First Minister Ian
Paisley of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Deputy
First Minister Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein. The new
Assembly has taken up the reins of local government in a

DUBLIN 00000748 002 OF 003


remarkably bipartisan fashion. The U.S. continues to work
with the Irish Government and the Northern Ireland Assembly
to promote collaborative North-South initiatives that will
help seal the peace in the North, including a planned May
2008 investment conference in Belfast. During an August 14
meeting between the Secretary and newly appointed Irish
Ambassador Michael Collins, Collins suggested a POTUS meeting
with Paisley and McGuinness. Minister Ahern is likely to
reiterate this suggestion during his meeting with the
Secretary.

SIPDIS


6. (SBU) Darfur. Ireland has been deeply engaged in Africa
since the 19th century missionary era, and the Irish
Government has recently focused its diplomatic efforts on
Darfur. In July 2006, Minister Ahern visited Irish aid
workers in Darfur and pressed leaders in Khartoum to accept
UN peace-keepers to complement the African Union Mission in
Sudan (AMIS). Minister Ahern is reportedly interested in a
special diplomatic role for himself in a region of conflict
(to be determined),and believes his 2005 experience as
Special Envoy for UN Reform and as a Northern Ireland
negotiator could give him credibility on Darfur. Ireland has
joined the European Union's (EU) Nordic battlegroup (with
Sweden, Finland, and Denmark),which is slated to begin new
peacekeeping duties in Eastern Chad, adjacent to Darfur.
Upwards of 200 Irish troops may be involved.


7. (SBU) The Middle East. The Irish Government and public
have long-standing sympathies for the Palestinian cause, and
the Taoiseach has led off discussions with high-ranking USG
visitors in the past by expressing concern about perceived
indiscriminate Israeli responses to Palestinian violence.
Ireland agrees with the U.S. that the Abbas Government must
be supported. At the same time, Ireland believes that Israel
needs to enhance its dialogue with the Palestinians, shore up
Abbas's position, and encourage reconciliation among the
Palestinian factions. Ireland is especially concerned about
the humanitarian crisis facing Gaza. Regarding Lebanon,
Ireland joined the original UNIFIL force in the 1970s and
contributed 150 troops to the bolstered UNIFIL mission in
2006 in the aftermath of the Israeli-Hizbollah conflict.
Ireland generally favors dialogue over sanctions and is
unlikely to deviate from EU policy in the Middle East.


8. (SBU) Kosovo. Ireland strongly supports UN Special Envoy
Ahtisaari's roadmap for Kosovar independence from Serbia and
favors the integration of the western Balkans into the EU,
pending necessary political reforms in the region. In
August, Ireland became the "Framework Nation" (the lead
nation in the multinational task force) in Kosovo in a KFOR
brigade that includes 270 Irish troops. Nonetheless, Ireland
is nervous about forcing Kosovar independence and continues
to prefer a negotiated settlement between Kosovo and Serbia.


9. (SBU) Burma. Ireland is very concerned about the
fast-paced escalation of violence in Burma, in which Minister
Ahern has taken a deep personal interest. Within the EU,
Ireland falls in the spectrum of countries that feel the
situation is critical and decisive action is needed. While
leaning toward the imposition of sanctions, Ireland wants to
be convinced that sanctions won't simply push the poor over
the edge. Irish Ambassadors in China, India, and ASEAN
nations are consulting closely with the leadership of those
nations in an effort to establish a common, productive way
forward. In discussing Burma with the Secretary, Minister
Ahern will be seeking common ground with the U.S.


10. (SBU) Iran. Irish officials are concerned about Iran's
failure to comply with UNSCRs 1737 and 1747 and are very
suspicious of Iran's motives in engaging IAEA. Nonetheless,
Ireland continues to prefer dialogue over sanctions and was
willing to talk with Iranian envoys at a high level (at their
request) prior to the IAEA General Conference on September
17-21 (though the proposed meeting never took place because
the envoys did not follow through). The bottom line: The
Irish Government will abide by EU consensus on how best to
deal with Iran.


11. (SBU) Immigration. The Irish Government continues to
consult with Members of Congress and Irish-American groups on
behalf of Irish residing illegally in the United States,
variously estimated at between 5,000 and 50,000. Minister
Ahern will likely ask the Secretary if a special deal can be
struck for the Irish "undocumented" residents (as the Irish
refer to them). Irish Ambassador Michael Collins raised this
concern with you on August 14 and met on September 21 with
Consular Affairs Assistant Secretary Maura Harty, where he
made a pitch for a special bilateral agreement between the

DUBLIN 00000748 003 OF 003


U.S. and Ireland that would ease the flow of people back and
forth, perhaps akin to the existing E-3 visa agreement with
Australia. This issue poses a domestic political problem for
the Irish Government, since families throughout Ireland are
unable to bring home "undocumented" family members for
funerals, weddings, etc., without jeopardizing the ability of
those family members to return to their U.S. homes.


12. (SBU) Afghanistan. Ireland supports U.S. and NATO
objectives in Afghanistan. It participates in the NATO
Partnership for Peace program, supplying seven troops to the
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in
Afghanistan. While the Irish Government extended the tours
of duty of their contingent from four months to six in May
2007 (at the urging of Embassy Dublin),so as to better
accommodate ISAF rotational schedules, Ireland is unlikely to
assign additional troops to ISAF.


13. (SBU) International Conflict Resolution. In concert with
the newly established Conflict Resolution Unit (CRU) in the
Department of Foreign Affairs, Embassy Dublin is seeking ways
in which Ireland and the U.S. might collaborate in an
international conflict resolution endeavor, utilizing the
special Irish expertise gained in dealing with the sectarian
conflict in Northern Ireland. The CRU is currently
developing a plan of action. Minister Ahern will mention
this initiative in his address to the UN General Assembly on
October 2. Ambassador Foley and Minister Ahern have
discussed this concept and both are enthusiastic about future
U.S.-Irish collaboration.


14. (SBU) Climate Change. Ireland's rapid economic growth
has made it difficult for the country to meet its Kyoto
Protocol commitments. Under the Protocol, Ireland pledged to
reduce emissions to 13 percent above 1990 levels by 2012, but
emissions now stand at 25 percent above the 1990 threshold.
In this context, the Government has welcomed Embassy
proposals for a cooperative approach to climate change, and
we are working on bilateral initiatives focused on ocean/wave
energy, methane capture, and clean coal technologies. The
Green Party's entry into Ireland's coalition government has
brought environmental issues, such as climate change, further
into the spotlight.
FAUCHER