SCENE-SETTER FOR PRIME MINISTER BERTIE AHERN'S ST.

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SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ETRD EINV EAIR MOPPS MARR IE
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR PRIME MINISTER BERTIE AHERN'S ST.
PATRICK'S DAY VISIT


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1. (SBU) An imminent, potentially historic opportunity to
restore the Northern Ireland Assembly sets the political
backdrop for this year's St. Patrick's Day visit to
Washington by Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach, "TEE-shuck")
Bertie Ahern. Building on the 2006 UK/Irish-brokered talks
among the Northern political parties at St. Andrews in
Scotland, Sinn Fein took an unprecedented step on January 28
to endorse policing in Northern Ireland. March 7 elections
for the Northern Assembly do not have a final tally, but have
likely positioned Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) chief Ian
Paisley and Sinn Fein deputy leader Martin McGuinness to
become First Minister and Deputy First Minister,
respectively. The Irish and British Governments continue to
press for restoration of the Assembly, and the Taoiseach will
likely seek President Bush's support for that objective. We
defer to Consulate Belfast for further analysis of
developments in Northern Ireland.

The Domestic Political Background
--------------


2. (SBU) Ireland's national elections, likely to be held in
mid-May, also color the political backdrop for the St.
Patrick's Day discussions. Prime Minister Ahern, who is
seeking a third consecutive five-year term, and his party,
Fianna Fail ("FEE-na FALL"),are currently polling ahead of
opposition rivals, though the gap has narrowed in recent
weeks. Election issues that have loomed large in the
parties' pre-election conventions include: health care, the
environment, living costs, deficient public infrastructure,
and income tax policy. In terms of immediate U.S. interests,
the Government remains committed to facilitating U.S.
military transits at Shannon and Dublin Airports (281,000
troops in 2006),despite opposition within the electorate to
U.S. efforts in Iraq and lingering public suspicions about
Ireland's involvement in extraordinary renditions. We do not
expect this policy to change after the election, even if
Fianna Fail were to lose.

Sustained Economic Success
--------------


3. (SBU) In 2006, the Irish economy remained a pacesetter in
Europe, registering roughly five percent GDP growth and
virtual full employment for the third consecutive year.
Economic prosperity and the availability of jobs have
attracted an estimated 300,000 (mostly Eastern European)
migrants since 2004, reversing Ireland's long-standing image
as a country of migrs. Roughly one in four migrants works
in construction, and a potential vulnerability for the
economy is the slowdown now underway in the previously
red-hot housing market, not unlike in the United States.
Another concern is Ireland's ability to compete with low-cost
economies, such as India and China, for U.S. foreign direct
investment, the engine of Ireland's Celtic Tiger success.
The Taoiseach's visit comes on the heels of high-profile
layoffs at the Irish subsidiaries of U.S. industry leaders
Motorola, Pfizer, and Procter & Gamble.

Bilateral Agenda Items
--------------


4. (SBU) GOI sources say that the Taoiseach will raise the
following issues in his White House discussions:

Immigration. The Irish Government continues to consult with
Congress and Irish-American groups on behalf of Irish
residing illegally in the United States, variously estimated
at between 5,000 and 50,000. Prime Minister Ahern will
likely ask the White House to support the renewed efforts of
Senators McCain and Kennedy to reintroduce an immigration
bill that would regularize the status of these "illegals."
The issue poses a domestic political problem for the
Taoiseach, since families throughout Ireland are unable to
bring home the illegals for funerals, weddings, etc., without
risking their ability to return to their U.S. homes.

Open Skies. The Irish Government strongly supports the
U.S.-EU air transport agreement that was initialed on March
2, which will create Open Skies in the U.S.-Irish market by
March 2008. Ireland is concerned, however, that
liberalization of air services at Heathrow Airport under the
U.S.-EU accord may lead the UK to block the deal at the March
22-23 EU Transport Council meeting, The Taoiseach is meeting
with Prime Minister Blair this week and may have insights as
what the British might need to accept the agreement.

Darfur. Ireland has been deeply engaged in Africa since the

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missionary era, and the Irish Government has recently focused
its diplomatic efforts on Darfur. Last July, Foreign
Minister Dermot Ahern (no relation to the Taoiseach) visited
Irish aid workers in Darfur and pressed leaders in Khartoum
to accept UN peace-keepers as a replacement force for the
current African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS). Foreign
Minister Ahern is reportedly seeking a special diplomatic
role for himself in a region of conflict, and his 2005
experience as Special Envoy for UN Reform and as a Northern
Ireland negotiator would give him credibility on Darfur.

The Middle East. Ireland has welcomed the formation of a
Palestinian National Unity Government (NUG) and supports EU
overtures to the NUG to accept the Quartet Principles. The
Irish Government and public have long-standing sympathies for
the Palestinian cause, and the Taoiseach has led off
discussions with past high-ranking USG visitors by expressing
concern about perceived indiscriminate Israeli responses to
Palestinian violence. Regarding Lebanon, Ireland joined the
original UNIFIL force in the 1970s and contributed 150 troops
to the bolstered UNIFIL mission last summer in the aftermath
of the Israeli-Hizbollah conflict.


5. (SBU) The following items might also feature in
discussions with the Taoiseach:

Renditions. The Irish Government strongly refuted a February
report by the European Parliament alleging that Irish
airports had hosted 147 suspected U.S. rendition flights. In
response to Irish parliamentary calls for random inspections
at Shannon Airport, Government leaders have cited earlier
U.S. assurances that no such practice involves Ireland. At
one point, Foreign Minister Ahern suggested reexamining the
1944 Chicago Convention in light of suspicions on rendition
flights, but there have been no concrete moves by the
Government to reopen the Convention.

Climate Change. Although the Irish public and media
criticize the United States for remaining outside the Kyoto
Protocol, Ireland's rapid economic growth has made it
difficult for the country to meet its own Kyoto commitments.
Ireland pledged under the Protocol to reduce emissions to 13
percent above 1990 levels by 2012, but emissions now stand at
25 percent above the 1990 threshold. In this context, the
Government has welcomed Embassy proposals for a cooperative
approach to climate change, and we are working on bilateral
initiatives focused on ocean/wave energy, methane capture,
and clean coal technologies.

Kosovo. Ireland strongly supports UN Special Envoy
Ahtisaari's roadmap for Kosovo and also favors the
integration of the western Balkans into the EU and
trans-Atlantic community, pending necessary political reforms
in the region. In August, Ireland will become the "Framework
Nation" in a KFOR division that will include 270 Irish
troops.

Afghanistan. Ireland, a NATO Partnership for Peace member,
has seven military officers in Afghanistan, who serve in
administrative roles. In response to Embassy requests to
increase troop contributions, the Government agreed only to
replace one administrative officer with an ordnance
specialist, while extending the tours of assigned officers
from four to six months.
FOLEY