U/S BURNS SPEAKS ON GULF SECURITY AT DUBAI THINK TANK

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TAGS: PGOV OPRC MARR AE IR IS LE
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS SPEAKS ON GULF SECURITY AT DUBAI THINK TANK

REF: ABU DHABI 0103

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1. Summary. Under Secretary Nicholas Burns spoke to an audience
of roughly 100 local officials, academics, and journalists at
the independent Dubai-based think tank, the Gulf Research Center
(GRC) January 23, after which he took questions from the
audience. Burns discussed how the US views the changing
landscape in the Middle East, and emphasized four main
challenges for US policy in the region: Iraq, Lebanon,
Israel/Palestine, and Iran. Burns said the US will continue to
work toward a diplomatic solution with Iran, but also emphasized
the US commitment to Gulf security in the face of Iranian
attempts at regional dominance. U/S Burns said that the US can
not and will not walk away from Iraq, as the consequences of
doing so would be far worse than the challenges of staying.
Burns stated the only way forward in the Israel-Palestinian
conflict is to work together to realize the creation of two
states and to accept the existence of the state of Israel. The
US is prepared, noted Burns, to commit a long-term, financial
contribution to support the government of Lebanon against those
who wish to destabilize it. The question and answer session
featured skeptical, but balanced questions from both guests and
media present. The appearance received heavy media coverage in
the region (reftel). End Summary.


2. U/S Burns spoke for about 20 minutes and then took questions.
Burns said that the Middle East has been a vital national
interest to the US since World War II and that the US works hard
- in conjunction with its partners - to encourage peace and
security in the region. U/S Burns emphasized the value of close
relations with Gulf countries, and affirmed that the US is a
trustworthy and reliable partner. Burns said that the Middle
East will continue to be a particular focus for President Bush
in his final two years in office. The US faces four main
challenges in the Middle East: Iraq, Lebanon, a solution to the
Israel/Palestine issue and Iran.

Iran
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3. U/S Burns said that the greatest challenge facing US foreign
policy is the formation of a productive working relationship
with Iran. Burns reiterated that the US has no argument with
the people of Iran, and in fact supports cross-cultural
exchanges and greater people-to-people understanding. U/S Burns
expressed hope for rapprochement with the people of Iran, and
someday the government of Iran, although that is not possible at
this time. U/S Burns listed three key issues of concern
regarding Iran: 1) the US and the majority of the international
community are convinced that Iran intends to produce nuclear
weapons; 2) Iran continues to be the central banker for
terrorism; 3) Iran's efforts to dominate the Gulf region are
counterproductive for regional security. While noting that the
US continues to work toward a diplomatic solution on the nuclear
issue, Burns emphasized that if its interests in the region are
threatened, the US will protect them.


4. On Iran's nuclear program, Burns asserted that it is clear
the world community believes Iran's nuclear program is designed
to produce nuclear weapons - an outcome, said Burns that the
global community cannot accept if we want peace in the Middle
East. Burns reiterated that the P5+1 June 2006 offer to
negotiate and assist Iran with building a civil nuclear program
is still on the table, but that Iran must suspend enrichment to
begin negotiations. UN sanctions could tighten as of February
21, warned Burns, depending on IAEA Secretary General
El-Baradei's scheduled report to the UN.


5. Media coverage on the event focused heavily on Burns' Iran
comments. Responding to questions on the "unilateral" nature of
US policy in the Middle East, Gulf News quoted Burns as saying,
"the whole world is supporting the US stand toward Iran, except
for Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus and Syria." Suspension of
enrichment activity is not just a US condition. The IAEA and
the UNSC are calling for suspension, said Burns. He reminded
the audience that the UN Security Council vote on UNSCR 1737 was
15 to 0 -- universal judgment was passed. Burns told the
audience that if it disagreed with the sanctions policy, it
disagreed with most of the world. Iranian press called Burns'
commitment to civil nuclear policy a "moderation" or shift in
USG rhetoric.

Iran and Gulf security
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6. A number of press questions focused on Gulf security and the

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impact of US Iran policy on the Gulf. U/S Burns said the US is
cooperating with regional and international partners to prevent
arms sales, and seeking assistance in preventing nuclear and
missile technology from reaching Iran. He expressed the hope
that countries that trade with Iran will send a message through
their trade policy that Iran cannot continue its aggressive
behavior. Responding to a question about the USG "Iran office"
in Dubai, U/S Burns said that it is an office within the US
consulate engaged in normal diplomatic activity, including
addressing the enormous interest of Iranians to travel to the
US. It also encourages people-to-people and cultural exchanges,
and works to increase US understanding of Iran.

Iraq
--------------


7. U/S Burns said that the US cannot and will not walk away from
Iraq, as the consequences of doing so would be far worse than
the challenges of staying. The US, noted Burns, would like
political support from the region and the EU for economic
reconstruction and the International Compact. Furthermore,
Burns said he hoped that Iran and Syria would be agents of
stability in Iraq rather than their current role as divisive
forces. As quoted by the Associated Press, Abu Dhabi-based Gulf
Negotiations Center Head Mohammed al-Naqbi told Burns, "Iraq is
your problem, not the problem of the Arabs. You destroyed a
country that had institutions. You handed that country over to
Iran. Now you are crying to Europe and the Arabs to help you
out of this mess." Burns reiterated that the US will remain
committed to assisting the Iraqis overcome sectarian violence as
long as the GOI requests US support.

Israel/Palestine
--------------


8. U/S Burns reminded the audience that George Bush was the
first US President to endorse the creation of an independent
Palestinian state alongside Israel. Both Secretary Rice and
President Bush, noted U/S Burns, wish to work with Arabs and
Israelis to realize the creation of two states that can live
together in peace. Audience members questioned the US ability
to act as an honest broker between Israel and Palestine. U/S
Burns said the only way forward in the Israel-Palestinian
conflict is for Arab countries to accept the state of Israel;
otherwise the region is resigning itself to another generation
of conflict.

Lebanon
--------------


9. U/S Burns said that the US is prepared to commit to long term
support for the government of Lebanon against those who wish to
destabilize it. In response to press inquiries regarding what a
"Lebanon solution" would look like, U/S Burns alluded to a
sizeable US financial contribution that would be made at the
January 24 donor's conference on Lebanon. There is
international consensus to support the Siniora government, he
said, noting that only Syria and Iran stand against peace in
Lebanon.
SUTPHIN