QATAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT FURTHER IRAN SANCTIONS IF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000594

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C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (FIXED CLASSIFIED BY LINE)

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017
TAGS: PREL KNNP IR QA
SUBJECT: QATAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT FURTHER IRAN SANCTIONS IF
SHORT OF "RED LINES"


DOHA 00000594 001.2 OF 002


Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D.


1. (C) Summary. The GOQ's Assistant Minister for Foreign
Affairs, Mohamed al-Rumaihi, who holds the UN portfolio, told
Ambassador Greg Schulte June 4 that Qatar would likely
support additional Iran sanctions in the UN Security Council
if the sanctions did not exceed unspecified red lines.
Rumaihi advocated targeted sanctions of three to four months'
duration. He expressed concern about outside assistance for
Iran's nuclear program. He said he believes the Iranians play
for time and make statements about certain facilities in
order to draw attention from activities in other locations.
He gave a detailed military analysis in which a strike, if
"surgical," would need to be sufficiently devastating to
render Iran incapable of retaliation. End Summary.


2. (C) Permanent Representative to the UN Office in Vienna
and the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ambassador Greg
Schulte, met with Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs
Mohamed al-Rumaihi June 4 to continue consultations on Iran
nuclear issues. He briefed the Qatari official on the
nstallation of additional centrifuge cascades in Iran, which
violate three UN Security Council resolutions, and on Iran's
withholding or withdrawing of cooperation with the IAEA.
Ambassador Schulte reviewed with al-Rumaihi the IAEA's latest
report, which noted Iran's statement that it will no longer
inform the agency of plans to build new nuclear facilities
and also noted plutonium-related activities in Arak, to which
IAEA inspectors were denied access. Ambassador Schulte said
that the U.S. goal remains the same: a diplomatic solution,
which requires changing Iran's preferences so that it will
accept the U.S./EU package of incentives offered in June

2006.


3. (C) Al-Rumaihi did not expect much to come from in talks
between EU Foreign Minister Javier Solana and Iran's nuclear
negotiator, Ali Larijani. He believed the Iranians might be
playing for time. He said he believed Solana is serious, but
the EU member states need to help him more, for example by
providing information on what equipment the Iranians are
seeking to acquire. He said that the international community
was "giving a chance" to Solana, but the crisis needed to be
solved within a time limit. "In three years, the Iranians
have only gained time," al-Rumaihi said.


4. (C) He believed that Iran "needs the help" of Pakistani,
Indian, Chinese, central Asian, or South African experts to
complete its nuclear work, in addition to imported equipment.
"They can't do it alone.... My approach is to ban experts'
assistance," he said. Rumaihi said the Iranians were likely
playing a game of deception, "attracting attention" to Arak
while engaging in work elsewhere.


5. (C) Rumaihi said that "we have to know what they (the
Iranians) want" -- the U.S./EU package, civilian nuclear
technology, relations with the United States, or "a bomb" --
in order to be able to properly induce them to give up
enrichment. However, it is important to show the Iranians
that they "don't have a free hand" in the region, he said.

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Military View
--------------


6. (S/NF) Rumaihi, a former army officer, presented a
military analysis. To be successful, a military strike must
be either on a large scale or, if "surgical," must be "heavy"
and protect the Gulf waters. An attack should not leave Iran
with a retaliatory capability, he said. For their part, the
Iranians are not capable of major military action, according
to al-Rumaihi: "They know their equipment will be destroyed."
But they will use artillery and missiles, he said, noting
that missiles "are a danger to us and to you." He added that
Iran could use chemical or biological weapons "with some
success" because of the short flight time from Iran to the
Gulf states. "We need to be aware and take precautions," he
said. Gulf states were concerned about any attack on the
Bushehr nuclear power plant site because of the potential to
throw harmful nuclear material into Gulf waters. The Israelis
appeared to be "under control" from a military point of view,
according to Rumaihi. If they entered a conflict with Iran, a
"global problem" would be the result because of sensitive
public feeling on the Palestinian issue.


DOHA 00000594 002.2 OF 002


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Additional Sanctions
--------------


7. (C) So far, Iran was only becoming stronger with each
round of sanctions, Rumaihi argued. He suggested that further
sanctions, if applied, should be focused on diplomats, trade,
carpets, pistachios ("we can do without them for a time"),
and financial transactions, but not on goods which average
Iranians needed for daily living. "We prefer Iran to be able
to sell oil but buy only food and medicine," Rumaihi said.
"Let the Iranians (i.e., the leadership) feel they're not
well-treated." But he called for sanctions limited to three
or for months linked to a decision timeline.

--------------
The Key Question: Next Vote on Iran
--------------


8. (C) At a follow-on lunch, Ambassador Schulte asked Rumaihi
what Qatar's position would be on tightening sanctions on
Iran in the UN Security Council. Rumaihi replied that he
could not speak definitively for his government on the matter
but that Qatar would "have to" support a subsequent
resolution as long it doesn't exceed "certain limits," which
he did not specify. He said that it was important for Qatar
to uphold the unity of the Security Council and not give Iran
the impression that some countries are with it while others
are against it.


9. (U) Post thanks Ambassador Schulte for traveling to Doha
for this consultation and related public diplomacy
appearances.
UNTERMEYER