QATAR'S LEADING BANKS SUPPORT ERO DIVERSIFICATION

UNCLAS DOHA 000271

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON FIN QA
SUBJECT: QATAR'S LEADING BANKS SUPPORT ERO DIVERSIFICATION



1. Summary. In iscussions with senior management of Qatar's
top two banks, Qatar National Bank and Doha Bank, Emboffs
learned that the private sector anticipates Qatar's continued
diversification away from the dollar as the country becomes
more involved in the global economy. Bank officials also say
that the GCC monetary union is unlikely to happen by 2010,
but the USD exchange rate peg that most Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) members have is likely to stay until the
monetary union is formed. End Summary.


2. On February 11 Emboffs met with R. Seetharaman, Deputy
Chief Executive Officer of Doha Bank. Seetharaman said that
because of Qatar's rapid economic growth, Qatar is taking
advantage of more investment opportunities abroad which
necessitates a diversification of not only investment
destinations, but also a diversification of foreign exchange
reserves. Considering the declining value of the dollar,
maintaining an entire portfolio of dollar-denominated
securities does not make sense for such a booming economy.
Seetharaman felt that the Qatar Central Bank was doing the
right thing to protect its economic interests. Seetharaman
said that the GCC Monetary Union will absolutely happen, just
not on the announced time schedule. He felt that is was only
a matter of time before the GCC countries achieved all the
criteria for a monetary union. Seetharaman also surmised that
GCC countries would keep their peg to the dollar until the
monetary union is formed, but after that a basket peg would
make more sense.


3. Mohamad Moabi, Executive Manager of Qatar National Bank's
Economics and Research department, told Emboffs February 12
that it was about time for Qatar to diversify because
globalization demands it. He said that the U.S. is no longer
the primary destination for Qatari investment and business.
This is primarily because of the Dubai Ports World
controversy, poor treatment by officials at airports, and the
difficulty in getting visas. In addition, there are more
attractive investment areas, particularly in Asia, of
interest to the Qatari business community and as a result the
historical relationship with the U.S. is changing.


4. Moabi also does not think the GCC monetary union will
happen in the near future, primarily for political reasons.
He said the nature of decision-making in the GCC makes it
hard for leaders to resolve their own domestic issues.
Working together is difficult because each GCC state has
different priorities. Moabi also stated that Saudi Arabia was
still trying to control the smaller GCC members but the
increasing prominence of countries like Qatar and the UAE
made that harder to accomplish. He asserted that Oman was
"courageous" for saying that they would not join the monetary
union by 2010 and that other countries probably feel the same
way but just did not want to voice their opinion.


5. Under an eventual monetary union, Moabi expects that the
GCC would have a more independent monetary policy that best
suits the regional economic environment. The current peg to
the U.S. dollar will be used to help standardize all the
countries before the monetary union, but he could see the peg
changing to include more of the GCC's economic partners. He
also thinks that the monetary union will help boost trade
between the GCC members because the existing customs union is
not strong enough. On a side note, Moabi stated that while
Qatar's economy could accommodate both the local banking
sector and the Qatar Financial Centre, in the next five years
there will not be enough room in the market and banks will
have to move more into private wealth and asset management.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------

6. The banking executives with whom we spoke appear quite
adamant that Qatar continue expanding its business
relationships away from U.S., primarily to broaden and
provide greater security to their international investments.
They probably view foreign exchange reserve diversification
as an extension of this shift and as a positive for Qatar's
global aspirations. While the Qatari private sector is very
forward leaning on diversifying Qatar's foreign exchange into
the euro, the government is more conservative and we judge
Qatar's tie to the dollar is unlikely to change in the near
future.
UNTERMEYER