RAMOS-HORTA'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY IN CONTEXT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000066

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TT
SUBJECT: RAMOS-HORTA'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY IN CONTEXT


DILI 00000066 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta, a political
independent, officially announced his candidacy for president on
February 25 in the eastern town of Laga. Ramos-Horta is widely
known to be the candidate supported by President Xanana Gusmao
and his newly established political party, but it is not clear
how much of Gusmao's popularity can be transferred to electoral
success for his chosen successor. Despite earlier discussions
of Ramos-Horta as a possible Fretilin candidate, the ruling
party ultimately decided against a "compromise" candidate and
nominated its president, Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres. On the
opposition side, Gusmao made strenuous efforts to gain the
support of the three key opposition parties for Ramos-Horta, but
they all ultimately rejected him and turned to nominating their
own candidates. The most widely held view is that no candidate
appears likely to win a straight up majority on the first round,
and that a run off between Ramos-Horta and Lu'olo is the most
likely scenario. The question would then be whether Fretilin's
national party structure or President Gusmao's national appeal
will be the force to win out for their chosen candidates.
Regardless of the result, the presidential election will
dramatically set the stage and possibly even determine the
outcome of the parliamentary elections to follow. End summary.


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta, who has no party
affiliation, officially announced his candidacy for president on
February 25 in the eastern town of Laga at a ceremony hosted by
former resistance fighter and President of opposition party
UNDERTIM, Cornelio Gama ("Elle Sette" or "L7"). Approximately
2,000 UNDERTIM members gathered for the ceremony. Joining
Ramos-Horta and L7 on the podium were representatives of
Fretilin Mudansa, the opposition faction within the ruling
party. Also on the podium was Dionisio Babo Soares, highly
respected lawyer and academic who co-chairs the bi-lateral Truth
and Friendship Commission, who has reportedly come on board to
manage the campaign. In his remarks Ramos-Horta presented
himself as a national unity candidate, emphasizing his
international standing and dedication to "addressing the poverty
of the people". Banners and other remarks emphasized his Nobel
Peace Prize laureate status and long association with the
resistance.


3. (SBU) The Laga setting for this announcement was of note as
it is located in the heart of the ruling Fretilin party's
traditional base, as well as being a stronghold of resistance
veterans, a key constituency. However, it may also reflect his
weakness in that UNDERTIM is the only significant opposition
party that has come out in his support. Even UNDERTIM's support
did not appear to be wholehearted. Cristiano da Costa, the
party's Secretary General, declined to attend, reportedly
because Ramos-Horta had not agreed to his request for
consultations with the party to precede the public roll out.
Questions have also been raised regarding Fretilin Mudansa's
support for the candidacy. Foreign Minister and Mudansa's
candidate for Secretary General Jose Luis Guterres has expressed
support Ramos-Horta, but some Embassy contacts have reported
divisions in Mudansa over this issue.


4. (SBU) Ramos-Horta is widely known to be President Xanana
Gusmao's candidate. Although no representatives of the
President, or of his soon-to-be-registered new party, were
evident on Sunday there is no doubt that Gusmao's support is the
single most important thing that Ramos-Horta has going for him.
Despite the fact that Gusmao's image has taken a beating during
the crisis of the last year, he remains the single most popular
figure in East Timor and there is broad consensus that he would
win a second term if he were running, albeit without the same
margin as in 2002. However, it is not clear how much of
Gusmao's popularity can be transferred to electoral success for
his chosen successor. Despite his international profile,
Ramos-Horta has never enjoyed national renown on par with
Gusmao's. Ramos-Horta also appears to be courting the support
of the Catholic Church (he had dinner with the Bishop of Baucau
the night before),although it is not yet clear if he has
garnered it.


5. (SBU) Ramos-Horta's candidacy is also notable for who is not
on board. There had been discussion of Fretilin putting him

DILI 00000066 002.2 OF 003


forward as their candidate. Despite his ties to Gusmao,
Ramos-Horta has always emphasized that he leads a Fretilin
government, has frequently consulted with former Prime Minister
and Fretilin Secretary General Mari Alkatiri, and often referred
to his roots as one of the founders of Fretilin. Ultimately,
his ongoing closeness to Gusmao as well as a strong inclination
on the part of Fretilin leadership to choose a candidate from
the inner circle seem to have won out instead. On February 21,
Fretilin announced that they would nominate party president
Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres. Lu'olo can argue that he spent the
entire Indonesian occupation in East Timor, primarily as a
resistance fighter. But in reality he is not viewed as a strong
candidate individually. Nonetheless, the Fretilin party
structure and resources, surpassing any other party by far, as
well as the historical and emotional appeal is still has, may be
enough to secure electoral success.


6. (SBU) Arguably more important than the Fretilin rejection is
the fact that the three opposition parties with the largest
representation in Parliament have all refused to support
Ramos-Horta's candidacy and nominated their own candidates.
(These include: the Democratic Party - PD, the Social
Democratic Party - PSD, and the Timorese Social Democrat
Association - ASDT.) Leaders of all three note that they were
considering supporting Ramos-Horta, but changed their minds
following his early February testimony at the trial of former
Interior Minister, Rogerio Lobato, which they regarded as
essentially defending both Lobato and Alkatiri, both of whom
have been accused of illegal weapons distribution. It should be
noted that their enthusiasm for Ramos-Horta was already limited
prior to the testimony, as much of the opposition have come to
regard Ramos-Horta as a weak Prime Minister who allowed Fretilin
and former Prime Minister Alkatiri to control him. In addition,
PD, the largest opposition party, is particularly upset with
Gusmao for starting a new party, the soon to be registered
National Council of Timorese Restoration - CNRT. In response to
a mid-Feb meeting where Gusmao asked for PD support of
Ramos-Horta, one PD leader reportedly described him as "trying
to sell a rotten fish."


7. (SBU) So instead, each is fielding own candidate. PD has
nominated party president Fernando "Lasama" Araujo; PSD has
nominated Member of Parliament Lucia Lobato; and ASDT has
nominated its president, Xavier do Amaral. Despite the parties'
professed confidence in their candidates, none are likely to
emerge as front runners. Of the three, Lasama has the greatest
chance of significant electoral gains due to the relative
strength of his party and his roots as a leader of the student
resistance organization Renetil. However, outside of his party
he has a limited profile and is not widely regarded as a
charismatic figure. Following the signing last week of a new
coalition agreement among the three parties, whose main
provisions apply to post-parliamentary election arrangements,
they all note that if any coalition member candidate makes it to
a second round of presidential elections, all three will support
that person. None of them are ready to consider what they will
do if Ramos-Horta goes to the second round against Lu'olo.


8. (SBU) Overall, Ramos-Horta stands as one of the stronger in a
field of candidates with no clear front runner and a splintered
opposition. In addition to the three opposition candidates
noted above, several other candidates have also emerged, such as
Kota's Manuel Tilman and UDT's Joao Carrascalao. They are
generally not regarded as serious candidates, but may still
further split the vote. Lu'olo and Ramos-Horta may be the
strongest competitors, but neither appears to have the broad
national appeal to win outright. The most likely scenario
therefore is that no candidate will obtain the 50 percent plus
one majority on the first round, leading to a second round
standoff between these two. The question would then be whether
Fretilin's national party structure or President Gusmao's
national appeal will be the force to win out for their chosen
candidates.


9. (SBU) Comment: Although East Timor's presidential candidates
run as individuals, not as party leaders, all candidates in this
election have strong party affiliation or backing. The partisan

DILI 00000066 003.2 OF 003


nature of this election contrasts greatly with the election five
years ago in which Gusmao won with over 80 percent of the votes.
There is a broad consensus that in addition to choosing an
individual head of state it will essentially be an exercise to
determine the relative strength of the various parties. As
such, the presidential election will dramatically set the stage
and possibly even determine the outcome of the parliamentary
elections to follow. As one source put it, "whoever wins the
presidency wins the parliament." End comment.
HARSHA