EAST TIMOR STABLE THROUGHOUT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000154

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/17/2017
TAGS: KPKO MOPS MARR PGOV PREL ASEC UN TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR STABLE THROUGHOUT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

REF: A) DILI 120, B) DILI 132

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CLASSIFIED BY: Major Ron Sargent, US Defense Representative,
U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of Defense.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(c),(d),(e)





1. (C) Summary. The government of East Timor conducted its
first round of presidential elections April 9 largely without a
significant security incident. In fact East Timor has been
remarkably calm over the past two months, aside from the
occasional martial arts group fight and minor clashes between
opposing political supporters during the campaign.
Surprisingly, the East Timorese Defense Force (F-FDTL) continues
to conduct its "static security" missions throughout Dili while
managing to avoid confrontation with other security institutions
in the capital city, despite multiple violations of the defense
force's own rules of engagement (ROE). Looking toward the second
round of the presidential election scheduled for May 9 and the
parliamentary elections taking place on June 30, it is unclear
whether the current calm represents a temporary holding pattern
of sorts. Recent improvements in the United Nations Integrated
Mission in Timor Leste (UNMIT) willingness to share security
sector information with diplomatic missions in country mean that
the international community is increasingly able to function
within the context of a common operating picture relative to the
local security environment. This will ultimately enhance Post's
ability to conduct predictive analysis regarding issues that
pertain to the security of American interests. End summary.


2. (C) Many international observers in Dili have commented on
the level of relative calm the city - and the rest of the nation
- have experienced over the past few months. While the lead-up
to the first round of the presidential election was marred by a
few violent incidents in the country, it did not appear these
incidents fed one another, and there has been no evidence which
demonstrates that there is any pending build-up of tensions. It
seems the people of East Timor are generally taking the current
situation in stride, and are patiently awaiting the presidential
run-off election which follows.


3. (C) According to International Stablization Force (ISF)
sources, F-FDTL continues to engage in the same level of
undisciplined behavior throughout Dili reported previously
(reftels),but there are indications that it finally may be
taking steps to police itself in a manner more consistent with
maturing defense forces elsewhere in the world. In one recent
incident, two drunk and armed F-FDTL soldiers on April 7
apparently fired about 20 warning shots at harassers who had
approached them on motorbikes in Bairo Pite. However, these
soldiers were reportedly detained by members of their own
section and taken to F-FDTL Headquarters in Tasi Tolu. Defense
Chief Brigadier General Taur Matan Ruak - who has a history of
explaining away his soldiers' transgressions - assumed
responsibility for the incident, but it is not clear what steps
will be taken to account for the actions of these soldiers.
Additionally, F-FDTL Operations Officer Major Coli Ati told the
U.S. Defense Representative on April 13 that copies of the
F-FDTL ROE were being mass-produced and would be provided to all
soldiers as a means of ensuring that written copies of the ROE
were physically in the hands of all soldiers involved in
operations. Coli Ati stated that this would contribute to the
creation of a means of accountability and that ignorance would
no longer be viewed as an acceptable defense for anyone found to
be in violation of the ROE.


4. (C) Amazingly, with all of the F-FDTL ROE violations
involving drunken, armed soldiers engaging in boorish behavior
over the past month, there has been only a single instance of
an F-FDTL soldier threatening UN Police (UNPOL) officers in
Kampung Baru on March 25 (reftels). Aside from that, there have
been no other incidents Post is aware of where F-FDTL members
have potentially come into armed conflict with either UNPOL or
ISF members. Because of the wide distribution of F-FDTL "static
security" posts throughout Dili and the large numbers of known
F-FDTL ROE transgressions since mid-March, it is possible UNPOL
and ISF members have been given instructions to maintain a wide
berth around F-FDTL areas in order to minimize the chances for

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armed encounters. Further, F-FDTL soldiers have been adept at
committing their transgressions in parts of the city where both
UNPOL and the ISF are not actively operating.


5. (C) Another positive development is the increased
willingness of UNMIT security officials to share information
pertaining to the security situation in-country. UNMIT
representatives told Post that they intend to scale back UNPOL
patrols in Dili to normal levels beginning on April 14, but that
they remain concerned regarding potential problems in the run up
to the parliamentary elections on June 30. UNMIT's new
willingness to keep diplomatic missions informed should
facilitate our ability to conduct predictive analysis relative
to future events in East Timor that could decidedly impact upon
American interests in-country.


6. (C) Comment: The current calm arguably underscores the
persistent assertion that violent events which do take place in
East Timor often happen by design rather than as spontaneous
occurrences. It is possible the key political figures who have
been suspected of being behind the violent spikes exhibited in
Dili and elsewhere in-country are playing a wait-and-see game to
determine the outcome of what all the balloting brings. Post is
encouraged by the small steps F-FDTL seems to be taking towards
a modicum of accountability. However, we remain disappointed in
its slow pace considering the volatility and tension that would
likely result from any armed incident between F-FDTL and
international forces. Post will continue to work together with
partner diplomatic missions and UNMIT, in accordance with the
policy laid out in Ref A, in making clear to both the Government
of East Timor and the leadership of F-FDTL that anything less
than full accountability should be deemed unacceptable. End
comment.
NAGY