ELECTION COUNT INCOMPLETE, BUT PREPARATIONS FOR RUNOFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000150

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY
TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TT
SUBJECT: ELECTION COUNT INCOMPLETE, BUT PREPARATIONS FOR RUNOFF
BEGIN

REF: DILI 148

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CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political / Economic
Officer, U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: The National Election Commission (CNE)
yesterday, April 12, began the national tabulation of votes for
Monday's presidential election poll. According to IFES
representatives working closely with the CNE on this process,
there are a number of problems with the district tabulation, on
which the current preliminary result information is based, that
will need to be addressed through the national process and that
still have the potential to alter the final outcome. These
problems appear to be primarily attributable to insufficient
training and human error rather than any widespread malfeasance.
Nonetheless, several candidates continue to cry foul and have
submitted complaints, and the candidates that appear to be
excluded from the runoff may still formally dispute the results
when they are posted two days from now. In the meantime,
political positioning and alliance seeking in preparation for
the runoff is already underway, with Prime Minister Jose
Ramos-Horta in particular actively reaching out to opposition
parties to join his cause. End summary.




2. (C) Following its April 11 announcement of the presidential
election results compiled from the district level tabulations,
the National Election Commission (CNE) yesterday, April 12,
began the formal process of the national tabulation. IFES is
working closely with the CNE to support this process and today
described to us how it is proceeding, noting that overall the
polling center and district level counting and tabulation
process has been "somewhat spotty". According to IFES
representatives, this is mostly attributable to shortfalls in
the training of the election officials and staff involved, which
in turn can be explained by the combination of the newness of
the process with the fact that the polling and counting
regulations were promulgated very late in the game.




3. (C) The end effect is that much more depends on the CNE
national tabulation process than was previously anticipated.
Examples of the issues that CNE now must address include:
correcting erroneous data on a large number of actas (the
summary documents accompanying each ballot box) which were
filled out incorrectly, with numbers simply not adding up;
obtaining access to 79 actas from Ermera district which were
incorrectly sealed inside the ballot boxes and now require the
CNE to violate its own rules to access; including in the tally a
number of uncounted boxes which have been discovered; and
reviewing the large number of null and blank votes, currently
accounting for around 8 percent of the total. (IFES notes that
this percentage will certainly come down as a result of the CNE
review process and that ideally the number of invalidated
ballots should be in the range of 2 percent). Citing problems
such as these, the CNE spokesperson at a press conference late
today announced that it will be requesting a complete recount
for four districts.




4. (C) CNE reports it has received a total of 39 complaints
related to the campaign or vote and have resolved 12 (IFES
reports it was expecting 200-300). Although Fretilin Secretary
General Mari Alkatiri, speaking for the campaign of front-runner
Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres, and second place vote getter
Ramos-Horta stated they have no plans to contest the outcome,
both campaigns report they have submitted complaints regarding
irregularities to the CNE. Fretilin spokesperson Filomeno
Aleixio relayed to Emboff that he believes that the party has
submitted about a dozen complaints and are continuing to collect
information and evidence which would be used in case Fretilin

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decides to dispute the outcome. Ramos-Horta's campaign manager,
Dionisio Babo Soares, described three campaign-period complaints
they have submitted against Fretilin, all involving attacks on
Ramos-Horta supporters. Fernando "Araujo" Lasama, president of
the Democratic Party (PD),currently in third place, today
relayed to Charge his view that the results have been marred by
manipulation, and clearly held out the possibility that PD would
dispute the results. He detailed inconsistencies evident in
many of the district tallies, as well as significant differences
between PD's own counts or expectations and some district
results.




5. (C) Despite the many questions and shortfalls outstanding for
the current count, discussions have already gotten underway in
some quarters regarding political realignment in preparation for
the runoff election. Sources in PD, the Social Democratic Party
(PSD),and the Timorese Social Democrat Association (ASDT)
report that many of their members are considering whether to
support Ramos-Horta, although this remains a highly
controversial issue at present. Ramos-Horta today invited the
leaders of these and other parties to a lunch at his residence
to try to bring them on board, during which he reportedly
listened to their views and concerns and presented a number of
compromises on key issues, in particular regarding the
"petitioners" group (the nearly 600 soldiers dismissed from the
armed forces last year after going on strike in protest of
alleged discrimination) and policy toward dissident military
leader Alfredo Reinado. It is not yet clear how successful such
overtures will be. PD leadership in particular declined to
attend and Lasama reported to us that he believes such
discussions are not appropriate before the results are finalized.




6. (SBU) Comment: Post believes it is important to note the
essentially provisional and incomplete nature of the currently
available results. Taking into account the number of still
uncounted ballots, multiple discrepancies in the district
figures, and the likelihood that a large proportion of the
ballots currently designated as null or blank will be
revalidated, it is not out of the question that the CNE will
produce a final tally with different results. Should the CNE's
result confirm the current lineup, we expect some renewed
expressions of discontent by the losers; however, a tally that
displaces one of the current front-runners could be
significantly more destabilizing. In the meantime,
Ramos-Horta's initiative to get opposition parties onboard with
his campaign, while admirably proactive, is arguably premature.
Certainly it seems unlikely that PD will respond favorably so
long as the outcome remains in possible flux. Although we are
concerned by some of the early reflexes to go straight to
rejection of the outcome, it appears these reactions may be
initial emotional responses rather than enduring positions.
Post will continue to encourage candidates to use established
dispute mechanisms and respect the final outcome assuming the
process ends with major counting errors corrected and disputes
credibly resolved. End comment.
NAGY