INITIAL ELECTION RESULTS ANNOUNCED, BUT DISPUTES LOOM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000148

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY
TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TT
SUBJECT: INITIAL ELECTION RESULTS ANNOUNCED, BUT DISPUTES LOOM

REF: DILI 141

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CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political / Economic
Officer, U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b)


1. (SBU) Summary: Amidst emerging disputes over the counting of
votes after a calm and smooth election day, East Timor's
National Election Commission (CNE) today announced provisional
results for the first round of the presidential elections,
indicating Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres in the
lead, followed by Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta and Fernando
"La Sama" Araujo, president of the opposition Democratic Party
(PD). Should these results be confirmed, Lu'olo and Ramos-Horta
will face each other in a runoff on May 9. However, the parties
and candidates have begun to respond to the emerging results,
foreshadowing a possibly contentious verification process.
Fretilin initially alleged manipulation, but appears to have
backed away from this approach in the face of Lu'olo's first
place position. A group of five opposition parties, including
PD, have expressed dissatisfaction with the counting process,
demanding an immediate suspension of the counting to address
alleged irregularities. Although he harshly criticized Fretilin
in a mid-day press conference, Ramos-Horta stated that he has no
intent to dispute the results regardless of the ultimate
outcome. The next few days will be a test both of the ability
of the electoral system to handle complaints and disputes and of
the ability of the respective parties to pursue their grievances
responsibly. End summary.




2. (U) At their final press conference at 5:00pm local time
April 11, the National Election Commission (CNE) announced the
following initial presidential election results:

-- Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres, president of the ruling Fretilin
party, in first place with 28.79 percent.

-- Jose Ramos Horta, the current Prime Minister, in second place
with 22.60 percent.

-- Fernando "La Sama" Araujo, president of the opposition
Democratic Party (PD),in third place with 18.52 percent.

-- Francisco Xavier do Amaral, president of the Timorese Social
Democrat Association (ASDT),12.82 percent.

-- Lucia Lobato of the Social Democratic Party (PSD),9.24
percent.

-- Manuel Tilman (Kota),Joao Carrascalao (UDT),and Avelinho
Coelho (PST) each received less than five percent.

While officially announced, these results could still change
significantly. This informal calculation was based on district
tabulations received thus far; it appears to include the vast
majority of valid votes cast, but at least nine Dili stations
have yet to be counted, and there may be other counts pending as
well. The CNE is scheduled to begin its official national
tabulation process tomorrow and will post the formal provisional
national results no later than April 14, after which they will
be subject to the final step of Court of Appeal verification.




3. (SBU) The CNE announcement followed two days during which the
results picture was in constant flux. While Ramos-Horta
maintained a strong lead in Dili, from which the first results
were announced, Luolo and Lasama subsequently gained in the
eastern and western districts respectively. Results from the
eastern districts were the latest to arrive and gave a
significant final boost to Luolo's numbers. CNE twice daily
press conferences at which it frequently announced erroneous
information compounded the confusion. Father Martinho, CNE
spokesperson, at times appeared to be making proclamations

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without solid verification, and also on occasion cited
preliminary and incomplete numbers as final.




4. (C) Last night, as publicly announced results were trending
unfavorable to Lu'olo, Fretilin held a secretive press
conference, inviting only a select group of media. Announcing
that Lu'olo had already garnered 40 percent of the vote
according to their parallel count (tabulated by candidate agents
in the field),Fretilin declared that Lu'olo was still expected
to win the first round outright with over 50 percent, and that
it intended to file complaints regarding alleged manipulation.
However, at this afternoon's CNE announcement, Lu'olo's chief
advisor expressed a significant change of tune, indicating that
the party was now happy with the results. Of note, he also
added that according to the Fretilin count, Lasama was actually
in second place and that the CNE count reflected a shortfall of
8,000 - 10,000 votes. It is not clear at this time whether
Fretilin will be pursuing any complaints; it appears more likely
that as long as Lu'olo retains his first place position,
Fretilin will focus its efforts on the runoff.




5. (U) Ramos-Horta also held a press conference April 11 at
which he denounced Fretilin intimidation tactics that prevented
some from voting, particularly in the eastern district of
Viqueque, and use of state resources during the campaign.
Despite these allegations, he emphasized that he would not
dispute the results should he fail to make the run off in the
final outcome, reciting his oft repeated line that, "I will
celebrate my own political demise." Already anticipating a
runoff against Lu'olo, Horta outlined why he believed Lu'olo
would be a poor choice for East Timor, noting that not only
would it have negative domestic consequences, it would also
reduce the nation's international standing. Emphasizing the
importance of relations with Australia and Indonesia,
Ramos-Horta cited the "radical" Fretilin group's anti-Australian
tendencies and the fact that in five years as President of
Parliament, Lu'olo had never visited Indonesia or reached out to
members of Indonesia's legislature.




6. (SBU) The final press conference today, held by the
opposition parties, raised the specter of a disputed outcome.
Five candidates, who according to the current numbers failed to
make the runoff including Lasama (PD),Xavier do Amaral (ASDT),
Lucia Lobato (PSD),Manuel Tilman (Kota),and Avelino Coelho
(PST),read out loud a letter later delivered to the CNE. The
letter demanded an immediate cessation to the counting in light
of multiple irregularities in the counting process, and stated
that if counting continued, they would not be able to accept the
results. The single piece of evidence presented at the press
conference was the Dili district tabulation results, which they
claimed included numerous discrepancies. Indeed, the number of
total valid votes listed does not match up with a tally of the
votes received by all eight candidates, showing a difference of
over 600. When asked by a journalist the legal basis of the
request to suspend counting, the candidates were unable to
answer. Sources here confirm that there is no provision for
such a request. However, having received the letter, CNE could
choose to investigate the complaint if there is sufficient
accompanying evidence. Despite this confrontational stance,
however, our sources indicate that ASDT and PSD are already
discussing a possible coalition to support Ramos-Horta. (PD,
ASDT and PSD recently signed a coalition agreement for
post-election governance arrangements.)




7. (SBU) Comment: The overall assessment by national and
international observers of the election day process and the
counting that has followed continues to be positive, although
there are clearly some discrepancies in the district tabulation

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results that will need to be addressed by the CNE. Whether the
issues cited by the various candidates have legs, therefore,
remains to be seen. Post will be pressing the message that
complaints are a valid part of the process but must be pursued
through the legitimate means outlined in the electoral laws and
regulations. Whether the respective parties abide by these
processes will be a test of their political maturity and
commitment to the democratic process. How their complaints are
handled by the relevant institutions will be a vital indicator
of their credibility as we move toward the next rounds of
national polling. End comment.
NAGY