ALKATIRI CONFIDENT HIS MAN WILL WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000143

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY
TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/6/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KJUS MARR TT
SUBJECT: ALKATIRI CONFIDENT HIS MAN WILL WIN

REF: DILI 141

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CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political / Economic
Officer, U.S. Embassy, Dili, East Timor, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1. (C) Summary: In an April 5 meeting with Charge d'Affaires,
ruling Fretilin party Secretary General and former Prime
Minister Mari Alkatiri strongly asserted Fretilin would not be
involved in any violence surrounding the presidential campaign,
and expressed confidence that Fretilin candidate Francisco
"Lu'olo" Guterres would win outright on April 9, despite the
widespread view that a run-off is likely. Looking toward the
parliamentary elections, he reported that Fretilin is working on
developing an agreement among the political parties to ensure
government-opposition partnership after the coming elections,
regardless of which party is in power. When CDA raised concerns
about recent lack of discipline among Timorese armed forces
(F-FDTL) deployed at static posts in Dili, Alkatiri responded by
describing the F-FDTL as essentially a disciplined force,
especially in contrast with the national police (PNTL).
Alkatiri was also non-commital regarding near-term passage of a
land law, but responded positively to CDA's offer to maintain an
ongoing dialogue with Alkatiri as leader of the ruling party,
remarking on the importance of the U.S.-East Timor relationship
in the context of East Timor's need to be an active part of the
international community. End summary.




2. (C) Charge d'Affaires April 4 met with former Prime Minister
Mari Alkatiri in his capacity as the leader of the ruling
Fretilin party in order to discuss the upcoming presidential
elections, scheduled on April 9, and to relay USG views
regarding the proper conduct of the elections. Alkatiri
expressed happiness with the overall conduct of the campaigns to
date, noting only sporadic incidents in the districts when two
or more campaigns crossed paths. He asserted that Fretilin's
leadership would never promote violence, remarking that events
"like Viqueque" (in which Fretilin members reportedly attacked a
group of supporters of candidate Jose Ramos-Horta) "can happen"
but that Fretilin always immediately controlled such outbreaks.
Alkatiri expressed full confidence that Fretilin's candidate,
Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres would win the presidential election
outright and that no second round would be required.




3. (C) Looking towards the parliamentary elections, Alkatiri
affirmed that Fretilin is currently working on campaign strategy
preparation and that the party intends to go it alone, not
seeking any coalition arrangement. However, he explained that
the party is working on an agreement for post-election
arrangements that they hope all parties can join. He said that
some parties were already entering discussions on this idea with
Fretilin, but noted the Democratic Party (PD) and the Social
Democratic Party (PSD) as having refused to discuss the idea so
far. He described the prospective agreement as outlining a
mechanism for consultation that would allow a partnership
between the government and the parties in opposition.




4. (C) CDA raised USG concerns regarding the lack of discipline
that has characterized much of the recent F-FDTL deployment in
Dili, where soldiers are now assigned to a number of posts to
provide static security. In addition, CDA noted the importance
of both PNTL and F-FDTL carrying out their duties professionally
and refraining from any interference in the election process.
Alkatiri responded to concerns about F-FDTL discipline by noting
that "it was the PNTL not the F-FDTL that imploded" during the
2006 crisis and that the F-FDTL has demonstrated that it is a
disciplined force. He recognized, however, that there is a need
for rebuilding and reconciliation in both institutions
expressing that this must happen within the institutions before
reconciliation between them can be effective.




5. (C) When asked whether Fretilin would be prioritizing the
passage of a law on land and property, Alkatiri acknowledged the

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importance of the law but also commented on the current
difficulty of obtaining a quorum in parliament for the passage
of any law. Nonetheless, he noted that it should be possible to
bring the draft land and property law to a vote in the
interregnum between the presidential and parliamentary
elections. This contrasted with the views expressed by his
close Fretilin allies, Minister of State Administration Ana
Pessoa and acting Prime Minister Estanislaus, later the same day
that passage under the current parliament is highly unlikely but
that it should be made a high priority for the new parliament.




6. (C) CDA relayed to Alkatiri the U.S. mission's desire to
maintain ongoing dialogue with him as the head of the current
ruling party and also the historical party of the resistance.
Alkatiri responded favorably, emphasizing the importance of the
East Timor-U.S. relationship, further noting that East Timor
needs to be a part of the international community, not operating
outside it. In this regard, CDA reiterated the importance of a
credible election process, noting in particular that this is
vital for the successful negotiation of a Millennium Challenge
Account compact.




7. (C) Comment: Alkatiri's rosy depiction of the issues
contrasts with information gathered by Post from numerous
sources. While conduct of the campaign has been marred by less
violent incidents than expected, Wednesday's final rallies by
the top three candidates in Dili produced a number of clashes as
campaign convoys crossed paths. Almost all observers agree that
a Lu'olo win is not a forgone conclusion and a second round will
be likely (reftel). Regarding Alkatiri's proposed consultative
mechanism between ruling and opposition parties, Fretilin has
been consistently criticized for its exclusive approach to
governance. This may be an attempt to counter such criticism,
or it may also be an indication that Alkatiri is exploring
arrangements to ensure Fretilin's continued relevance in the
event of a Fretilin loss. Alkatiri's assertions regarding
F-FDTL discipline are repeatedly belied by the litany of F-FDTL
transgressions over the last two months. Regarding the land
law, clear laws on land and property are urgently needed to
begin to address the many conflicting ownership claims that are
an important contributing factor in the continued displacement
of thousands of Dili residents. In the longer term, a law is
considered an indispensable prerequisite to economic
development. However, Fretilin commitment to passage of such a
law may be weak in part because of its potential impact on
Indonesian indemnification claims. End comment.
NAGY