HASINA'S RETURN SETBACK FOR GOVERNMENT REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000778

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM BG
SUBJECT: HASINA'S RETURN SETBACK FOR GOVERNMENT REFORM
AGENDA

REF: DHAKA 0750

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, reason para 1.4 d.


1. (C) Summary. Hasina's triumphant return to Bangladesh
marks a dramatic setback to government efforts to force the
two ladies into exile and create a new political landscape.
Taking Hasina, and by necessity Zia, to trial may be Plan B
but is fraught with risks for an increasingly risk-averse
government. End Summary.

The Prodigal Daughter Returns
--------------


2. (C) Hasina's triumphant May 7 return to Dhaka ended
speculation that the Awami League chieftain had been
blackmailed into exile and that party rivals were poised to
supplant her or defect to a new political grouping. The
party faithful greeting her at the airport included three top
leaders who four weeks ago had basically called on her to
stay away.


3. (C) Hasina's political secretary, Saber Chowdhury,
characterized her return as a "tactical" defeat for the
government and said that the thousands of supporters who
lined the roads to cheer her motorcade signaled the beginning
of the end of the government's political honeymoon. He
denied the Awami League has any plan to agitate for an end to
the ban on political activities or to hold earlier elections.
"The last thing we want is to give the government an excuse
to delay elections and buy more time to organize its 'king's
party," he said.

The Other Lady Lies Low
--------------


4. (C) According to one senior adviser, Bangladesh
Nationalist Party chairperson Khaleda Zia continues to plan
for mini-Hajj travel to Saudi Arabia with an option for exile
there or in Kuwait. As Hasina's plane neared Dhaka, the
adviser conveyed to the Ambassador Zia's appeal for the USG
to pressure the government to allow her son Tariq, in jail on
extortion charges, to be released on medical grounds to go to
Saudi Arabia. He admitted he was unsure of Zia's intentions,
whether she only wanted to save her family or whether
Hasina's return would encourage her to hang tough.

Government Reaction
--------------


5. (C) Perhaps surprised by the scope of Hasina's reception,
the government has moved to identify and charge several
thousand supporters for violating the ban on political
activity and disciplined four senior police officers for
failing to prevent the violation. It continues to affirm
there are no restrictions on the movements of or access to
the two ladies, though party contacts and the media report
otherwise. Hasina and other senior party figures, however,
are out and about, and cautiously criticizing government
actions. Zia is virtually out of public view.


6. (C) Previously, government officials had indicated the two
ladies had to go to create space for reform and a new, more
democratic political process. On May 9, Home Secretary Karim
echoed to us what appears to be the emerging government spin
on Hasina's return: Every citizen has the right of return and
to face charges in a court of law.

Joining Hands?
--------------


6. (C) Khaleda Zia issued a statement welcoming Hasina's
return, but Awami League leaders publicly denied there is any
scope for inter-party cooperation akin to their joint
struggle against the Ershad dictatorship. "Our experiences
with them are too bad to have any confidence in their
sincerity," Secretary General Jalil told reporters.
Chowdhury, Hasina's political secretary, claims Zia's party
is too discredited and too weakened to provide meaningful
support.

Prospects for Party Reform
--------------


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7. (C) Party reform may be the biggest casualty of Hasina's
return. Chowdhury noted that Hasina and her supporters feel
vindicated by recent events, and he articulated a reform
agenda -- like public campaign financing and political party
registration -- that excludes how party leaders are selected.
He says he has advised Hasina not to punish her four
opponents in the party presidium because the party needs all
its strength to defeat the "king's" party. (Comment: The same
logic might be harnessed to oppose "unnecessary" or
"disruptive" reforms.)


8. (C) Two weeks ago, there was a critical mass of Bangladesh
Nationalist Party leaders who supported replacing Zia but
which refused to act itself, believing the military would do
it for them. Before party reform can be addressed, Zia's
status -- whether she's going or staying -- must be clarified
and alternative, credible leaders will have to materialize.
Syed Iskander, an ex-army officer and Zia's brother who has
conspicuously escaped arrest on corruption charges, has
emerged as a party vice-chairman and potential successor, a
prospect that excites no one and which, Iskander told us, he
has no interest in realizing.

Plan B
--------------


9. (C) Multiple sources report that the military has not
given up on sidelining the two ladies and creating a "king's"
party, but its tactics are up in the air. Chief of Army
Staff Moeen's widely-criticized political trial balloon at a
political science convention on April 1 appears to have ended
talk that he would try to succeed Iajuddin Ahmed as president
in September; the current theory is that Ahmed will stay
until a "king's" party wins the next election and the new
parliament selects Ahmed to take over a
constitutionally-beefed up presidency.


10. (C) If exile is off the table for now, the obvious "Plan
B" for sidelining the two ladies is electoral
disqualification through criminal conviction, but this poses
several major risks. First, if Hasina is taken to trial, the
government would have to do the same with Zia to preserve its
vital image as politically neutral. There are no pending
charges against Zia, and taking General Zia's widow to trial
would be a bitter pill for many military officers, some of
whom could also be implicated in illicit practices during
Zia's government. In addition, a trial could give Hasina a
perfect platform for railing against the government, and even
if she were credibly convicted on a serious charge, there
would be millions of Bangladeshis who would still view her as
a political martyr.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) It is unclear how the government will deal with the
continuing presence of the two ladies. While it has shown
sensitivity to domestic and international pressure -- for
example, on media freedom and Hasina's right to return --
there is no sign it plans to lift soon the ban on political
activity, and the military continues to talk to primarily BNP
politicians about supporting a "king's" party. Next week,
the Ambassador plans to pay farewell calls on Hasina and Zia
to hear their views firsthand.
BUTENIS