POLITICAL INSIDER DESCRIBES POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001096

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: POLITICAL INSIDER DESCRIBES POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT
EXIT STRATEGY


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Geeta Pasi for reasons 1.4(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Nazim Kamran Chowdhury, a prominent ad
executive with close ties to the government, defended the
government's decision to put off national elections until
late 2008 and described his efforts to persuade the Chief
Adviser to assert himself more politically. Chowdhury said
the military is backing away from plans to create a "king's
party" and is trying to position reformist elements in the
two leading parties. END SUMMARY

A DEMOCRACY "IN NAME ONLY"
==========================


2. (SBU) On June 20, SCA Pakistan and Bangladesh Office
Director Karen Aguilar and POLOFF met with Nazim Kamran
Chowdhury. Among his many connections, Chowdhury is
president of Bangladesh's largest marketing company ADCOMM,
husband of government advisor (i.e., minister) Geetiara
Safiya Chowdhury, and cousin of Chief Advisor Fakhruddin
Ahmed. Chowdhury is also a well-known Bangladeshi political
commentator and former Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)
member of parliament from Sylhet.


3. (C) Chowdhury told us that before "one-eleven"
(Bangladeshi short-hand for the January 11 declaration of a
state of emergency),Bangladesh was a democracy in name only.
He asked why the U.S. was pushing for "early" elections,
saying "elections don't make a democracy - institutions make
a democracy."


4. (C) According to Chowdhury the distortion of the political
system and rampant corruption create a void at the local
level that Islamic fundamentalist groups seek to exploit. He
said institution-building is required from the bottom up to
create a real democracy, close that vacuum, and prevent the
growth of fundamentalism. "National elections won,t address
this issue," he told us, "and they shouldn,t be viewed as a
panacea for Bangladesh,s problems." He expects the
government will announce a road-map in July that will call
for local elections first, with national elections to come by
December 2008.

A SHY, TECHNOCRAT CHIEF ADVISER...
==================================


5. (C) He described Chief Advisor Ahmed as shy and a manager
by nature. Fakhruddin's reluctance to involve himself in
anything political or to be out front in public has created a
gap that different elements -- such as the military and
certain outspoken government advisors -- have sought to fill.
In Chowdhury's view, the Chief Advisor is not being forced
into a specific (subservient) role by the military. "There
is room for Fakhruddin to step up if he so chooses,"
Chowdhury said. "The military is filling a vacuum, not
putting him in a box."

...TRYING TO ASSERT HIMSELF
===========================


6. (C) Chowdhury and other informal advisors have been
pressing Fakhruddin to address more political issues in the
advisory council, and to improve the government's public
relations and outreach by getting out of Dhaka and speaking
to the people. Chowdhury put together an ambitious outreach
strategy, but the Chief Advisor "got carried away" on his
initial visit to Tangail in April. He wandered off his
20-minute speech, speaking for over an hour in 100-plus
degree heat, and ultimately succumbed to dehydration. "Still,
he needs to get out and be seen as more engaged, a leader,"
said Chowdhury.

A POSSIBLE END-GAME
===================


7. (C) Chowdhury thinks Chief of Army Staff Moeen was
sufficiently chastened after he gave a speech on April 1
which many interpreted as a foray into politics. "Certain
individuals have backed away from a future in politics, and
most have backed away from creating a third, military-backed
government," Chowdhury said, referring to widespread reports
the military is trying to create a "king's party" to contest
elections. He claimed many in the military now prefer, as an
exit strategy, a deal with the reform wings of both parties

DHAKA 00001096 002 OF 002


that banishes their current heads, and guarantees the
military some form of indemnity.

COMMENT: CONTOURS OF AN EXIT STRATEGY?
======================================


8. (C) Chowdhury is the ultimate insider, a relative to two
advisers (Fakhruddin and Foreign Advisor Iftekhar Chowdhury),
and spouse of another (Geetiara). When POLOFF met him in
April, he was much more suspicious about the role of the
military and more concerned about the possible political
ambitions of certain military figures. In this latest
meeting, Chowdhury seemed to feel these issues were slowly
being resolving and the military's role was receding
somewhat. Nevertheless, his proferred exit strategy for the
military, specifically indemnity for actions during the state
of emergency, implicitly acknowledges the important role the
military plays in the current political balance. END COMMENT.


9. (U) This message was drafted after SCA/PB Director Aguilar
departed Dhaka.
PASI