Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DARESSALAAM888
2007-06-21 10:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Cable title:  

ZANZIBAR: CCM-CUF RECONCILIATION TALKS STALLED

Tags:  PREL PHUM PGOV KDEM TZ 
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DE RUEHDR #0888/01 1721026
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211026Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
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INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 3212
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY 2552
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY 3030
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY 0980
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RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0444
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000888 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/E FOR B YODER, AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK, MHARPOLE
DEPT ALSO FOR DRL
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KDEM TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: CCM-CUF RECONCILIATION TALKS STALLED

REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 0609

B. DAR ES SALAAM 0559

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4(b,d).

SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000888

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/E FOR B YODER, AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK, MHARPOLE
DEPT ALSO FOR DRL
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KDEM TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: CCM-CUF RECONCILIATION TALKS STALLED

REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 0609

B. DAR ES SALAAM 0559

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4(b,d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Progress in the reconciliation talks between the
ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the Civic United Front
(CUF) on how to resolve the political impasse in Zanzibar
appears to have stalled following the mid-May visit to Pemba
by the CCM Secretary General Yusuf Makamba. In remarks to
Pemban citizens May 18, Makamba alleged that both a re-run of
the 2005 presidential elections and a government of national
unity were no longer on the table. CUF leaders have
emphasized their loss of faith in President Kikwete's
commitment to resolving the political crisis in Zanzibar and
are alarmed by what they view as an attempt by CCM to
postpone any power sharing agreement until after the 2010
elections. In a June 17 meeting, President Kikwete told
Ambassador Retzer that CCM's approach was to address power
sharing as the last item in the reconciliation talks.
Kikwete said that formation of a unity government in the near
term would simply mean the parties continuing their quarrels
inside the government. Although both CCM and CUF pledged
publicly on June 16 to continue negotiations, CUF faces
intense pressure from its membership. CUF members are
increasingly restless and pressuring their leaders to show
results from the talks or pursue other means to achieve their
political aims. END SUMMARY.

CUF Perspective: No Agreement in Sight
--------------

2. (C) In a June 15 lunch meeting with the DCM, CUF,s key
leadership including Party Chairman Ibrahim Lipumba, Foreign
Relations spokesman Ismail Jussa, and Deputy Secretary
General Juma Duni Haji, expressed their frustration and loss
of hope from the lack of progress in reconciliation talks
with CCM during the last three weeks. After five months of
regular meetings and negotiations, Jussa told PolOffs on June

12 that CUF fears CCM wants to postpone any power sharing or
formation of a government of national unity in Zanzibar until
after the general elections in 2010. &This would put CUF
exactly where we were after the 1995 and 2000 elections: CCM
leaders engage us in negotiations, up until the eve of
elections, then do not honor the agreement. We need a
government of national unity so that we can ensure the
groundwork is set for free and fair elections in 2010,8
Jussa stressed.


3. (C) On June 9, Hon. Hamad Rashid Mohamed, head of
opposition in Parliament, candidly told PolCouns about his
fears regarding CUF,s membership and their frustration with
the status quo. He said that if progress is not made by
August 15, the party would have to tell its members it had
been &betrayed8 by CCM. Mohamed stressed that CUF took
President Kikwete &seriously.8 In Mohamed,s view, CUF has
already dropped its top demand ) a rerun of the 2005
elections. However, some type of coalition government that
is in place before 2010 is an essential demand for CUF. CUF
leaders have told PolOffs repeatedly since 2005 that if there
is no government of national unity, their members have no
faith that elections in 2010 will be free and fair, and will
therefore not participate in them.

Demoralized by CCM Secretary General
--------------

4. (C) Both Hon. Mohamed and Ismail Jussa, who in late April
had expressed optimism to Embassy officers that the two sides
were close to an agreement, pinpointed the commencement of
the stalemate as the unexpected visit of the CCM Secretary
General, Yusuf Makamba to Pemba on May 18. During rallies,
Makamba told Pembans: "If the National Football Team (Simbas)
won the championship, would you expect them to share it with
the Taifa Stars?" implying that in an election victory, the
winner should not be expected to share power. Jussa said

DAR ES SAL 00000888 002 OF 003


Makamba,s statements not only violated CCM and CUF,s
agreement to only speak jointly to the press about the status
of negotiations, but essentially took both of CUF,s key
demands off the table: a re-run of the 2005 elections and a
government of national unity. In Chairman Lipumba,s view,
Makamba,s statements were said strategically to "demoralize"
CUF membership on Pemba.


5. (C) In an effort to clarify Makamba,s statements and
their implications on the reconciliation process, CUF
Secretary General and three-time Presidential candidate,

SIPDIS
Maalim Seif Hamad, requested a one-on-one meeting with
Makamba. As a result of their May 26 encounter, Hamad and
Makamba signed a letter pledging to work to conclude the
talks by August 15 and to implement a power sharing agreement
by October 2007. Despite this letter, both Lipumba and Jussa
expressed their great discouragement to the DCM on June 15.
Jussa explained: "The letter should have broken the impasse
of the negotiations; however, Makamba sent the letter to
both sides' negotiators 'to advise' the teams, instead of
instructing the negotiators to follow the agreed timeline."

CUF Pessimistic But Continuing Talks
--------------

6. (C) Lipumba and Jussa stressed that CUF,s governing
Council was now meeting to discuss the way forward. Without
detailing the deliberations of the Council, Lipumba told the
DCM, &We want to condemn Makamba,s statements but make
clear that we will continue with the talks. Some CUF members
are calling for us to pull out of the talks, but what purpose
will this serve?8 (Note: While Lipumba noted that some CUF
members were in favor of the talks continuing, he omitted the
fact that approximately 200 CUF supporters demonstrated
against the talks at CUF headquarters in Dar es Salaam the
very same morning--June 15 at about 9:30 a.m. Pictures in
the June 16 Citizen newspaper showed a mob of CUF members
surrounding Ibrahim Lipumba and Maalim Seif Hamad, holding
posters with slogans such as "The talks stop today" and "We
are tired. Stop the talks.")


7. (C) Both Chairman Lipumba and Hon. Mohamed acknowledge
that the discontent and frustration among CUF members is
widespread. However, neither would predict if CCM and CUF do
not reach an agreement, what their party members' reaction
might be. Jussa told PolOffs on June 12 that members may
press for new leadership within CUF, or may resort to
violence if their faith in the political process is
sufficiently damaged. Hon. Mohamed revealed that during
Maalim Seif Hamad's March 2007 visit Pemba, CUF members were
telling Hamad directly: "You are tired; you need to step
aside and let new leadership into CUF."

CCM,S Perspective: Power Sharing Saved For Last
-------------- --------------

8. (C) During a State House meeting with President Kikwete
June 17, Ambassador Retzer asked for an update on the CCM-CUF
reconciliation talks. Kikwete said that despite recent press
articles suggesting otherwise, he believed the talks are
progressing and were continuing on schedule, but that the two
sides had not reached any agreement on a power-sharing
arrangement or government of national unity.


9. (C) Regarding a power sharing agreement, Kikwete stressed
that the CCM did not want to create a government in Zanzibar
that would allow the two parties to bring their quarrels
inside the government. "The people of Zanzibar deserve a
government that will work; we don't want to create a unity
government that fails the next morning," he said. Kikwete
emphasized that CCM,s approach was to save the issue of
power sharing until last as it was the most difficult issue:
"CUF is trying to fast track the process." Kikwete said that
the CCM wants to address other issues first, such as how to
level the playing field during campaign and election periods
and other confidence building measures.


10. (C) President Kikwete did refer to the controversy
created by CCM Secretary General Makamba,s visit to Pemba.

DAR ES SAL 00000888 003 OF 003


In his view, while CUF has accused CCM of violating the talks
by making statements to the press about negotiations,
Makamba had only mentioned that the two sides had not yet
reached an agreement and that there would not be a re-run of
the elections. &Hon. Hamad Mohamed (leader of the
opposition in Parliament) told me in person that CUF
understands there will be no re-run of the election, so it is
unclear why CUF is blaming Makamba for his statements,"
Kikwete remarked.


11. (C) In closing, Kikwete noted to the Ambassador that CUF
leaders approached him during Parliament's June 13 budget
session, complaining about pressure from their members to
reach an agreement. &You know,8 Kikwete said to the
Ambassador, &CUF gets these rent-a-crowds8 implying that
CUF tries to get press attention through hired or manipulated
crowds. Despite the concerns he raised, Kikwete expressed
hope that the talks would eventually reach a successful
conclusion; he also confirmed that the negotiations would
continue as planned on Monday June 18 in Bagamoyo.

Comment and Analysis:
--------------

12. (C) CUF has told EmbOffs unequivocally that its bottom
line is a government of national unity before the Zanzibar
elections in 2010; CCM, on the other hand, has made clear
that a power-sharing arrangement in the Government of
Zanzibar (GOZ) is the last item on its negotiations agenda.
For CCM, any agreement to allow CUF into the GOZ represents a
risky proposition before 2010, as a voluntary relinquishing
of power will be unpopular with many party leaders and
members. Moreover, any future discord within such a
coalition government could be viewed as a failure for
President Kikwete, which in turn could cause problems as he
seeks a second term in office.


13. (C) Kikwete seems skeptical about a national unity
government in the near term, despite broad agreement among
sources that Kikwete has the political sway needed to ensure
that President Karume accepts a power-sharing arrangement.
The Civic United Front's faith in President Kikwete as their
chief CCM ally has swung like a pendulum to the other side,
with CUF leaders now saying they have lost all hope in
Kikwete and his promise to "address the political impasse on
Zanzibar." Thus, while CUF tries to accelerate the talks to
seriously discuss a national unity government, CCM is
applying the brakes, if not attempting to take a complete
detour, until after 2010 elections. It is not surprising
that both sides are frustrated and have not made any clear,
substantive progress since the negotiations began in January

2007. Thus, while the wheels of Zanzibar,s reconciliation
talks are spinning, they do not appear to be covering much
ground.


14. (C) There is no doubt that CUF faces a quandary. Its
leaders are not only facing tough negotiations with the CCM,
but fractious elements within their own party. By failing to
mention the confrontation between CUF leaders and angry CUF
members on June 15, just hours before his lunch with the DCM,
Chairman Ibrahim Lipumba apparently wanted to mask the
growing dissatisfaction among members. While we don't have
concrete evidence supporting CUF,s claims that its youth are
radicalizing and starting to support a third option--Islamic
fundamentalism-- one thing is clear: conditions to increase
the frustration level are present on Zanzibar. Unemployment
and poverty are widespread; many youth feel they do not have
any alternatives and are increasingly disaffected with
democracy after what they view as a third rigged election in
October 2005. END COMMENT.
RETZER