ZANZIBAR: IS A WIN-WIN POSSIBLE AS CCM-CUF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000559

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LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: IS A WIN-WIN POSSIBLE AS CCM-CUF
INTERPARTY DIALOGUE ENTERS THE END GAME?

REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 0125


B. DAR ES SALAAM 0084

C. 06 DAR ES SALAAM 01835

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4 (b, d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) At a joint April 6 press conference, the Zanzibar CCM
Secretary General, Yusuf Makamba, and the Civic United Front

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(CUF) Secretary General, Seif Malam Hamad, announced that the
two parties had completed the initial stage of reconciliation
talks. CUF party chairman, Dr. Ibrahim Lipumba, told the DCM
that his party remains confident that President Kikwete will
keep his word and broker a solution acceptable to both
parties. CUF's bottom line request during the January to
April 2007 discussions was a rerun of the elections followed
by the formation of a government of national unity. Without
a coalition Government of Zanzibar (GOZ) in place well in
advance of 2010, CUF is convinced that the next round of
Zanzibar general elections will be neither transparent nor
fair. CUF leaders expect an agreement on the next step in
the reconciliation to be decided by May at the latest. End
summary.

CUF's Patience Based on Confidence in Kikwete
--------------

2. (C) For the last 15 months, CUF leaders have refrained
from public criticism of the slow pace of the reconciliation
process in Zanzibar because they "trust and respect"
President Kikwete, Dr. Lipumba told the DCM on March 30.
Lipumba stressed that since making a promise in his December
2005 inaugural speech to Parliament that he would work to
resolve the divide on the Isles, Kikwete has been consistent
in both words and actions. "His position has never changed."
Hon. Hamad Rashid Mohamed, official leader of the opposition
in the Union Parliament who headed up CUF's team during the
reconciliation talks agreed. Mohamed told PolCouns on March
27 that CUF leaders knew through "back channel contacts" that
Kikwete was working hard within CCM, tracking the issues,
discussing, persuading. Mohamed reiterated: "Until now, we
have asked CUF members and our youth to be patient because we
wanted to give President Kikwete enough time."

CUF Just Presented the Facts
--------------

3. (U) During the January to April dialogue, CUF's requests
were straightforward: 1) acknowledge that the October 2005
elections in Zanzibar were not fair, thus not valid; 2) rerun
the elections under an independent commission; 3) form a
government of national unity that includes ministers
appointed from the party that does not win. Hon. Mohamed
described the three-month dialogue with CCM as "frank" and
noted that all the issues CUF put on the table were backed up
with objective documentation. Specifically, during the 2005
elections:

-- Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) was not
independent, but controlled by the GOZ;
-- Zanzibar state-owned media ignored ZEC's rules
and allocated disproportionate air time to ruling
party candidates;
-- opposition parties were not able to verify the
Permanent Voters Register (PVR) and received the
PVR only 12 hours before the polls opened;
-- during the campaign period, CUF was not allowed to
hold any rallies in the Donge district;
-- the GOZ used local militia to intimidate voters during
the voter registration, campaign and election periods;
-- human rights abuses by GOZ militia groups occurred
immediately following both the October and December
2005 elections in Zanzibar.


4. (C) CUF did not offer any proposal concerning how these
problems should be resolved nor what form a government of
national unity should take, according to Hon. Mohamed. "We

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outlined the facts: it is up to CCM to make a proposal." The
interparty committee's joint report was forwarded to the
secretary generals who are currently holding meetings to

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discuss the outcome and next steps. Mohamed emphasized: "We
were adamant during the entire three-month dialogue that CUF
does not want a Muafaka III, that is merely a written
agreement with no political will behind it. We want change."
(NOTE: Two previous Muafaka agreements, prior to the 2000 and
2005 Zanzibar elections, were negotiated between CCM and CUF
over many months and promised fair elections and a coalition
government. However, neither Muafaka was endorsed by the CCM
Central Committee nor fully implemented.)

CUF's Bottom Line: Government of National Unity
-------------- --

5. (SBU) Whether or not CCM agrees to rerun the elections,
Dr. Lipumba stated CUF is not ready to compromise on its
demand that a government of national unity be in place well
in advance of the preparation period for the 2010 elections.
According to Lipumba: "A coalition government is the only
solution to ensure that the Zanzibar Electoral Commission
(ZEC) would be genuinely independent. Otherwise, we have no
confidence that the GOZ would not try in 2010, as it did in
the previous elections, to influence the ZEC's decisions and
actions."


6. (C) When the DCM questioned whether President Karume would
accept a national unity government, Dr. Lipumba was confident
that if the CCM Central Committee insists, Karume would have
to comply. He cited a precedent: In 2000, Dr. Habib Bilal
won two-thirds of the Zanzibar CCM primary popular vote.
However, Amani Karume was chosen as the Zanzibar presidential
candidate by the CCM Central Committee, despite Bilal's
grassroots popularity.

CCM concerned about discrimination against Pemba
-------------- ---

7. (C) Both CUF's Lipumba and Mohamed, and Rwekaza Mukandala,
the Vice Chancellor of the University of Dar es Salaam and a
CCM member with close Central Committee contacts, emphasized
that Kikwete and influential CCM members are concerned over
Karume,s blatant discrimination against Pembans. In the
current Karume CCM cabinet, only Minister Hon. Zainib is from
Pemba and was designated as a "minister without portfolio,"
and thus, has limited influence. Mukandala told PolCouns
March 26 that Karume added Zainib to his cabinet only after
"arm-twisting" by the CCM Central Committee. One GOZ Deputy
Minister position and very few of 18 slots for Permanent
Secretaries are held by Pembans, even though nearly 20

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percent of registered CCM members in Zanzibar are Pembans.


8. (C) Since the Karume administration began its second term,
opportunities for education, GOZ jobs and investment in
business in Zanzibar have virtually dried up for Pembans,
regardless of political affiliation, Mukandala explained. In
his view, CCM's concern that Karume's actions are
unnecessarily deepening the divide between the two Isles may
have been a factor in the December 2006 CCM Central Committee
decision to allow the interparty dialogue to move ahead. Dr.
Lipumba told the DCM that CUF leaders have consciously not
raised the Pemban discrimination issue publicly, because they
wanted the reconciliation process to go forward: "We know
that President Kikwete and the CCM Central Committee are
already concerned."

CCM Insiders Acknowledge CUF's Strength in Zanzibar
-------------- --------------

9. (C) CCM concerns about Zanzibar go beyond Karume's
discriminatory policy toward Pembans, according to Mukandala.
He told PolCouns March 27 that CCM party analysts realize
that CUF continues to gain strength on both isles of
Zanzibar. Mukandala said in December 2006, the CCM Central
Committee decided to move forward with the CCM-CUF dialogue,
knowing full well that CUF would demand a government of
national unity. The nod was given based in part on CCM
analysts' closed-door briefing to Central Committee members
about the strength of CUF's support in Zanzibar.

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10. (C) Mukandala said that CCM insiders realized that
despite the favoritism of the Zanzibar state media toward the
ruling party in 2005, possible multiple voting by CCM
members, the GOZ's use of militia to intimidate opposition
supporters, and other irregularities noted by international
observers, Karume still received only 53 percent of the vote.
If the 2005 elections had been completely fair, CCM analysts
recognize the result would have been much closer: a virtual
dead heat. Mukandala maintains that CCM analysts acknowledge
that CUF,s support may continue to increase, especially
among Zanzibar youth, and have advised CCM leaders that a CUF
victory in 2010 is a realistic possibility.


11. (C) The creation of a national unity or coalition
government is the right political move for CCM, in
Mukandala's view, in order to position the party for a
possible CUF presidency on Zanzibar in 2010. If CUF were to
win, then CCM would still be inside the government. If CCM
were to win, CUF would be included in the GOZ and both Unguja
and Pemba would benefit: a win-win for both sides.


12. (C) When asked if a CCM Mainland government and CUF
presidency in Zanzibar could work, CUF's Chairman Lipumba
told the DCM that President Kikwete knows in order to
maintain his respected status in the AU, SADC and other
African fora as a supporter of democracy, the 2010 Zanzibar
elections have to be transparent. Kikwete also knows that if
Malam Seif Hamad were to be the CUF candidate and were to win
in the next Zanzibar presidential election, they could work
together. Lipumba said President Kikwete respects Hamad, and
knows he is a capable administrator as demonstrated during
his stint as CCM's Chief Minister in the Government of
Zanzibar (1984-1988).

And if no resolution...?
--------------

13. (C) In reply to the DCM's query on whether CUF,s
patience had a limit, Lipumba explained that CUF anticipated
an agreement could be reached and announced some time in May.
Should these party-to-party negotiations deadlock or the
impasse continue far past May with no agreement, Lipumba said
CUF is prepared to go public with all the documentation the
party has gathered showing serious irregularities in the
1995, 2000 and 2005 elections. To date, CUF has shared this
information in full only with CCM during the interparty
dialogue discussions.

Comment
--------------

14. (C) CUF Chair Lipumba asked the USG to continue to press
President Kikwete for a rapid yet equitable resolution of the
Zanzibar political impasse. He also suggested we ask
President Karume to abide by whatever agreement is reached.
On Monday, April 16, the Dar es Salaam press noted that
President Kikwete had traveled to Zanzibar for a "private
visit," and we suspect this trip may be related to the
ongoing reconciliation process. We remain concerned,
however, that President Karume may resist falling in line
with whatever compromise might be reached, particularly if it
meant the inclusion of CUF members in his current
administration.
RETZER