Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DARESSALAAM489
2007-04-03 21:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Cable title:  

EXTRAORDINARY SADC HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT:

Tags:  ECON PGOV PHUM PREL TZ 
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VZCZCXRO3552
PP RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDR #0489/01 0932110
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 032110Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5869
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 3167
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 1374
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY 2973
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY 0938
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0203
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0413
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000489 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/S FOR DMOZENA, AF/C AF/E FOR DMALAC, BYODER
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O 12958: DECL: 04/03/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM PREL TZ
SUBJECT: EXTRAORDINARY SADC HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT:
TANZANIAN MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS' BRIEFING ON MARCH
28-29 MEETINGS

REF: A. HARARE 00274

B. STATE 038986

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000489

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/S FOR DMOZENA, AF/C AF/E FOR DMALAC, BYODER
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O 12958: DECL: 04/03/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM PREL TZ
SUBJECT: EXTRAORDINARY SADC HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT:
TANZANIAN MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS' BRIEFING ON MARCH
28-29 MEETINGS

REF: A. HARARE 00274

B. STATE 038986

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Tanzanian Foreign Minister Bernard Membe briefed U.S.,
Canada and EU chiefs of mission March 30 to "fill in the gaps" on the
outcome of the SADC Summit held March 28-29 in Dar es Salaam. Membe
said SADC leaders told Mugabe that violence perpetrated against the
opposition was not acceptable and that "President Mugabe understood."
He also said SADC leaders opposed all talk of "regime change" except
for change stemming from the democratic process. South Africa's
President Mbeki and his emissaries would talk to all sides in Zimbabwe
and attempt to set the conditions for free and fair elections in 2008.
Mbeki will report progress or lack thereof to President Kikwete on
a regular basis. Only after internal political dialogue starts and
progress is made would SADC consider calling on Western nations to ease
sanctions.


2. (C) Membe requested that the United States, United Kingdom and other
Western nations tone down their "war of words" with Mugabe to give
SADC's initiative a few months to make headway. He said progress would
be measured not only by internal dialogue, exercise of free speech, and
the setting aside of violence, but Mugabe's adherence to a clear
timeline for 2008 elections. Should Mbeki report back that no progress
is being made, President Kikwete would consider calling another Summit.
"We will know if SADC's initiative is succeeding because the outcome
of the political dialogue will be clear to all." Membe gave a short
readout on the Summit's deliberations on Lesotho and the Democratic
Republic of Congo situations (paras 11-13). Finally, he assured the
assembled chiefs of mission that as Chair of SADC's Politics, Defense,
and Security Organ, Tanzania would keep the international community
apprised of progress through regular briefings. END SUMMARY.


SADC Supports Zimbabwe Elections in 2008
--------------

3. (C) Membe told the U.S. Canadian and EU heads of mission March 30
that the SADC leaders considered the March 28 to 29 Summit a
"breakthrough" because it was the first time that the political and
economic woes of Zimbabwe were openly discussed in both the Troika
meeting March 28 and in the full Summit on March 29. In the March 28
four-hour closed door meeting, the seven heads of state from the
"double troika" met to discuss the roadmap for the next day's summit.
The discussion was broken into three tracks: the political situation,
Zimbabwe's relations with Western nations, and the economic situation.
[Note: The "double troika" consisted of SADC's Politics, Defense, and
Security Organ (Tanzania, Angola, Namibia and South Africa as
invited guest); and the SADC Troika (Lesotho, Zambia and Botswana).]

SADC Troika Demanded Mugabe's Full Cooperation in Summit Meeting
-------------- --------------

4. (C) The double troika set the ground rules that President Mugabe
would have to agree to discuss all issues openly in the full Summit
meeting the following day. They outlined the problems beginning with
the a complete collapse of political security in Zimbabwe and reviewed
all incidents both prior to and after March 11. The troika members
denounced the excessive force that was used and the intolerance of the
GOZ to the opposition. The members also expressed their deep concern
over the lack of clarity in the timeline for presidential elections
in Zimbabwe. They noted that the ruling ZANU-PF is divided into three
groups: supporters of Mugabe, supporters of the Vice President and
supporters of the Minister of Local Administration. Troika members
were concerned that President Mugabe has never been willing to face
the truth or discuss Zimbabwe's situation in SADC meetings. "The troika
leaders were adamant that Mugabe had to realize and admit to the
seriousness of the problems in Zimbabwe. If he did not cooperate, SADC
would not lend him any support." President Kikwete, as chair, was
charged with explaining to Mugabe what would be on the table the next
day and to get him to agree to fully participate. According to Membe,
Kikwete met with Mugabe until 1 a.m. and got his buy-in.


5. (C) Minister Membe said that Mugabe kept his word and fully
participated in the March 29 Summit meeting, a marathon from 10 a.m.
to 4 p.m. with no lunch break. "His cooperation was superb," Membe
reported. "I think he absorbed some of the ideas the Summit leaders
laid out; he also outlined to the leaders his view of the situation,
which many heads of state had never heard before."


DAR ES SAL 00000489 002 OF 003


Conditions for a Political Dialogue
--------------

6. (C) Mugabe admitted there are serious problems and a deep political
crisis in Zimbabwe. He resented that the MDC leader Tsvangirai had
never recognized him as president, refuses to speak with or even greet
him, and never attends any official events where Mugabe is presiding.
"How can there be any dialogue if he refuses to discuss?" he
complained. President Mbeki reported to the Summit that his emissaries
had already met with the MDC opposition leaders the previous week. The
opposition was ready to meet with Mugabe if the timetable is confirmed
and adhered to for the presidential elections in Zimbabwe. They
reminded Mugabe that the constitution mandated that the elections be
held in March 2008. If Mugabe announced 2008 is the election date,
then "he could expect the maximum support from SADC," said Membe.

SADC Supports 2008 Democratic Elections in Zimbabwe
-------------- --------------

7. (C) Minister Membe outlined what SADC's support would be should
Mugabe agree to 2008 elections and preparations begin and make
progress. In that case, SADC member states would support the process
and: 1) request that the EU lift targeted sanctions; 2) ask Western
countries to end the isolation of Zimbabwe; 3) request that the
investigation into human rights violations be suspended; and 4) ask the
United States, Canada and the EU to give SADC's initiative some
"breathing room" for a few months to let the internal dialogue move
forward. Membe added: "Due to the tone and resolve of the heads of
state in the Summit meeting in outlining theses conditions to Mugabe, I
have no doubt that the SADC plan will move forward."

International Situation: Request to Tone Down "War of Words"
-------------- --------------

8. (C) Membe asked the United States, UK, and other Western countries
to tone down the "war of words" with Mugabe. He admitted that Mugabe
has a temper "when provoked" so asked that the rift between the Western
nations and Mugabe not be further widened through heated rhetoric. He
noted that the land issue is a part of the divide, especially with the
UK, and said that in the SADC leaders' view, while not linked directly
to the internal dialogue SADC has asked Mugabe to accept, the land
dispute cannot be completely ignored or "sidelined." Membe noted that
Prime Minister Blair had told President Kikwete during his UK trip that
the remaining funds from the land compensation money agreed to in 1981
were available and would be disbursed through UNDP oversight.

No Shortcut: New Leader in Zimbabwe Must be Chosen Democratically
-------------- --------------

9. (C) Membe spoke emphatically that the only change of leadership in
Zimbabwe the SADC heads of state would support is through the
democratic process. "There is no shortcut," he reiterated. "No one ca
be installed to replace a dictator. The Zimbabwe people have the right
to a fully democratic election to choose their leader." He noted that
President Mbeki was charged to assure that all necessary steps are
taken over the next 12 months to create a "conducive climate" for a fai
democratic process to be put into motion.

Economic Objectives
--------------

10. (C) The SADC Summit leaders listened to Mugabe's version of how
Zimbabwe ended up in its current economic crisis with spiraling
inflation, out of control exchange rate, and the obvious suffering of
Zimbabwe's citizens. The Summit heads offered to send a team headed up
by the Executive Secretary of SADC to Zimbabwe to assess the underlying
causes of the economic woes. The team would then offer suggestions tha
both SADC, Western nations and the IFIs might be willing to support.
However, progress on the economic track, particularly in approaching th
international community to consider easing sanctions, would be linked
to making headway in the political dialogue. SADC would expect
measurable efforts by Mugabe and his government to dialogue with the
opposition, to adhere to the 2008 election timetable, and to create a
climate conducive to fair elections, including freedom of expression.
Violent responses to the opposition and any torture or mistreatment of
opposition leaders would not be tolerated. Membe confirmed that Mugabe
had understood these conditions. He noted that President Mbeki will
report regularly to President Kikwete; if the dialogue is moving
forward, it will continue. However, should it stall, Kikwete will call
another full Summit which Mugabe would be asked to attend.

Democratic Republic of Congo
--------------

11. (C) The SADC Summit discussed the DRC security situation and

DAR ES SAL 00000489 003 OF 003


reaffirmed that all private armies must be integrated into the national
army or be disbanded. In response to a question, Minister Membe noted
that oversight of this process by SADC would be assumed by the
Secretary General (SG) of SADC who will visit the DRC in the near

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future. The SG would report back to President Kikwete, chair of the
Organ of Politics, Defense and Security, on whether progress was being
made.


12. (C) Minister Membe assured the chiefs of mission that Jean-Pierre
Bemba's private army has been virtually disbanded with its 700 plus
members either apprehended, killed or hiding in the bush, so he no
longer has a base. Membe noted that Bemba is in the South African
Embassy in poor health with a broken leg. President Kabila was prepare
to put out a criminal warrant for his arrest, and South Africa was not
going to object. However, Kabila has instead decided to allow Bemba to
go to Portugal for medical treatment, if he would agree to go into exil
with his family. Membe believed Bemba's options are limited: he would
not be able to stay in the South African Embassy as a fugitive; in his
current state of health, living outside of Kinshasa would not be viable
Thus, he may well accept to leaving the country with his family.

Lesotho
--------------

13. (C) Membe explained in detail the events leading up to the impasse
between the opposition and ruling party that had brought Maseru to a
virtual standstill for the same two days (March 22 and 23) that the
SADC committee meeting of the Organ of Politics, Defense and Security
was underway. Based on the report from the Prime Minister of Lesotho
during the March 29 Summit meeting, the SADC heads of state decided to
send a delegation of seven senior SADC officials to Maseru. The team's
objective would be to work toward setting up a dialogue between the
opposition parties, the ruling party and the government, leading to
reconciliation and, if possible, to settling these issues outside of
the courts.

Comment
--------------

14. (C) At times Minister Membe struck us as overly sanguine. He
suggested that the very fact that Mugabe would agree to discuss
internal Zimbabwean politics was a signal event. He also stressed, mor
accurately we think, that what went on beneath the surface -- that is,
what he assured us was frank and candid exchanges between Summit heads
and Mugabe far from the microphones -- was more important that the
official communiquQ itself. At the end of the day, however, he was
on target with his summary comment on the Summit: "There is nothing
to hide here; we will all know if progress on the political front is
being made in Zimbabwe over the next few months or not." END COMMENT.

RETZER