PRESIDENT KIKWETE'S MARCH 15 MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000375

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LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ZI TZ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KIKWETE'S MARCH 15 MEETING WITH
ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENT MUGABE TO INITIATE SADC'S
RECONCILIATION EFFORT


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Pamela White for reasons 1.4(b,d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) On March 16, Tanzania's Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Bernard Membe, briefed Charge Pamela White, the Canadian High
Commissioner and a select group of European ambassadors on
the outcome of President Kikwete's March 15 trip to Harare
for intense, closed-door discussions with President Robert
Mugabe on a "new way forward" for Zimbabwe. Membe said
President Kikwete and South Africa's President Mbeki had
agreed to a coordinated Southern African Development
Community (SADC) strategy, with Tanzania taking the lead on
discussions with Mugabe and South Africa ready to reach out
to Zimbabwe's opposition party leaders. Membe stressed that
aim of the SADC effort is to end the suffering of Zimbabwe's
citizens by focusing only on internal, good governance issues
with Mugabe. "SADC has a timetable and we will move forward
steadily," Membe stressed, asking that other countries give
this new SADC effort time--"a breathing space"--of one to
three months, before launching efforts in other fora to
address the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe.


2. (C) While not disclosing details of the options that
Kikwete and Mugabe addressed, Membe said the discussions were
frank, and President Kikwete emerged from the meeting very
optimistic that Mugabe is ready to cooperate with this
initiative. Membe said that the next meeting of the SADC
Organ on Politics, Defence and Security, which Tanzania
currently chairs, will be in Dar es Salaam March 25 to 27;
details of the SADC strategy for Zimbabwe will be discussed
and decided during that session. Membe also made an appeal
to European diplomats to invite President Mugabe to the next
EU-Africa Summit, scheduled for Fall 2007 in Portugal, so
that human rights and democracy concerns about Zimbabwe can
be discussed openly with "Mugabe in the room." Both the U.K.
and the EU representatives proposed to "wait and see" for the
next few months to ascertain if SADC initiative is making
headway or not before making that decision. End summary.

Briefing to Select Group of Diplomats
--------------

3. (C) Minister Membe said he chose to meet in person with
the envoys of the U.S., Canada, U.K., France, Germany,
Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and the EU, before MFA
released its official announcement on President Kikwete's
March 15 meeting with President Mugabe. "I want to give you
more details than will be in the press release," he noted.
Membe said that President Kikwete had promised Mugabe at the
January 2007 African Union (AU) summit in Addis Ababa that
they would meet again once Kikwete returned from his European
tour. However, the violent events of March 11 and 12,
prompted Kikwete to visit Harare now rather than later. He
fully briefed Mugabe on what he had heard from capitals of
European countries regarding Zimbabwe. Membe reiterated that
that Kikwete had no intention to address land reform with
Mugabe, a complicated issue on which some African nations are
sympathetic to Zimbabwe's position. "President Kikwete's
goal was to address good governance and human rights
concerns, as internal Zimbabwean issues, and not discuss
ongoing disputes with the United Kingdom or any other
nation." Membe counted as a success that through the March
15 meeting, Mugabe understood that SADC wants to only focus
on and work to resolve Zimbabwe's governance problems.


4. (C) Minister Membe said that Kikwete first "heard out"
Mugabe on the economic and political challenges Zimbabwe is
facing: inflation at nearly 1700 percent, an impossible
foreign exchange rate, and daily life becoming "unbearable"
for most Zimbabweans. Mugabe also gave his side of the March
11-12 incidents that had outraged the international
community. Kikwete then broached with Mugabe that the status
quo cannot continue and the time is "right" to move toward
reconciliation between the Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) and
the opposition and to address Zimbabwe's governance woes.
According to Membe, President Mugabe showed a "commitment" to

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work toward such a resolution.

Plea to "Give us some breathing room"
--------------

5. (C) Membe expressed the GOT's "fear" that unless the
international community has "faith in" this SADC initiative
and gives it time to bear fruit, other options for change in
Zimbabwe might be proposed that could "discredit or impede"
progress in this new reconciliation effort. "We are
appealing that you give this effort some breathing room," he
reiterated. Membe added that "regime change is difficult; it
takes tolerance and patience" giving the only hint that the
Kikwete-Mugabe closed door discussions may have included
exploring the possibilities that Mugabe might consider
power-sharing or even stepping aside. However, when queried,
Membe said he could not disclose any details of what was
actually discussed, except the that focus was on internal
reconciliation.

Tanzania will work with Mugabe; South Africa with the
opposition
--------------

6. (C) Minister Membe said while President Kikwete wanted to
meet with the opposition leaders, the occasion did not
present itself during this trip. "At present, tempers are
still very high." Kikwete's main objective March 15 was to
"break the ice" with President Mugabe and get him to agree to
cooperate with the SADC reconciliation initiative. Membe
emphasized that Presidents Kikwete and Mbeki have agreed to
closely cooperate: Kikwete will initially be the
interlocutor with President Mugabe and Mbeki with the
opposition. Thus, South Africa plans to meet with the
Zimbabwe opposition parties very soon. On March 25 to 27,
the SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security will meet in
Dar es Salaam and develop a straight forward, step-by-step
strategy to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis. Membe noted that he
anticipates President Kikwete will make many trips to Harare
and, when the time is right, also meet with opposition
leaders.

Important "carrot": Invite Mugabe to EU-Africa Summit
-------------- --------------

7. (C) Minister Membe emphasized more than once that the EU
leaders should consider inviting Mugabe to the EU-Africa
Summit in October 2007. He said that neither AU nor SADC
leaders believe in isolating Zimbabwe. "We need to engage
President Mugabe, to keep talking to him; that is the only
way to know the situation in Zimbabwe and move toward a
resolution." Membe said that inviting Mugabe to the
EU-Africa summit would be a "win-win": first, it could
assure that nearly all African nations would attend the
summit, since many would refuse to attend if Zimbabwe was
shunned; and, more importantly, it would allow a discussion
on human rights and democracy in Zimbabwe to take place with
Mugabe in the room and listening. "No progress can be made
if we discuss Zimbabwe's human rights situation and they are
not even there," Membe said. He reported that Kikwete had
told Mugabe if he were invited to attend the EU-Africa
summit, he needs to know that Zimbabwe's human rights record
would be discussed; Mugabe appeared comfortable with that
possibility.


8. (C) Both the Charge of the United Kingdom and the EU
Ambassador suggested to Minister Membe that the decision on
whether Zimbabwe be invited to the Fall 2007 EU-Africa summit
in Lisbon, could be better addressed after seeing whether
Mugabe is cooperating with the new SADC initiative or not.
Membe insisted that the invitation should not be contingent
on progress in this internal reconciliation effort, but be
extended as a "carrot" to encourage and coax a serious
response from President Mugabe to address governance and
human rights concerns.

Comment
--------------

9. (SBU) While Minister Membe would not reveal any specifics

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on what Kikwete and Mugabe discussed, he stressed that talks
were "frank, spirited and down to earth" in seeking a way
forward from the status quo. Membe said President Kikwete is
very optimistic: "If you could have seen his face this
morning, he looked like the happiest man alive." Membe's
plea to the Western diplomats was loud and clear: give us
enough time to let SADC develop a strategy and make progress.
He stressed that if efforts to solve the crisis in Zimbabwe
are made from both inside and outside Africa at the same
time, there is the risk of a "collision."


10. (C) Both the United Kingdom's Charge and the Canadian
High Commissioner confirmed to Charge White in a brief
follow-on meeting that Minister Membe had referred to "regime
change" in describing options that might be on the table in
this SADC reconciliation effort. However, the envoys agreed
that the March 15 Kikwete-Mugabe meeting was just an small
step in a very long process. While Kikwete has a successful
track record in reconciliation efforts in both Burundi and
the Congo (DRC),even Minister Membe admitted that President
Mugabe often overreacts when facing the press, with his
words, actions and mind "far apart." Membe promised to keep
the Western diplomats fully briefed, beginning with an
outbrief following the March 25 to 27 SADC Organ on Defence
and Security meeting in Dar es Salaam.
WHITE