TANZANIA WALKS FINE LINE ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 001568

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM IR TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA WALKS FINE LINE ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

REF: STATE 0162558

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission, D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Tanzania's firm position is that neither Iran nor any
nation should pursue the development of nuclear weapons,
Deputy Foreign Minister Seif Ali Iddi told the Deputy Chief
of Mission on December 4. Iddi explained that he had
accompanied Vice President Ali Mohamed Shein on his late
November trip to Iran, but that the "nuclear issue" had not
been raised by either side.


2. (C) Ambassador Iddi said that he welcomed the statements
in the USG National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) issued on
December 3 that Iran has halted its covert nuclear weapons
program. He emphasized that the Government of Tanzania (GOT)
was "deeply disturbed" to learn of the development of nuclear
weapons prior to 2003. Iddi reiterated that President
Kikwete and the GOT are committed to promoting peace
throughout the region and the world. While Tanzania has
consistently supported any country's right to pursue peaceful
uses of nuclear power, "We would never condone actions
leading to the development or proliferation of nuclear
weapons."


3. (C) The DCM replied if nuclear issues had not been an
issue during the recent trip to Tehran, then they should have
been. The NIE was profoundly troubling in confirming a
nuclear weapons program before 2003. The time line for
development of nuclear weapons was set by the pace of uranium
enrichment, and there was a Chapter VII resolution calling
for Iran to cease such enrichment. As Iran accrued enriched
uranium, it could decide to restart its weapons program at
any time. Furthermore, there was Iran,s ballistic missile
program, exceedingly expensive, and cost effective only if
such missiles carried nuclear rather than conventional
payloads.


4. (C) Finally, Iran,s nuclear issue went beyond regional
security to include the global economy. Sustained progress
in developing nuclear weapons, or in the worst case analysis,
an actual test, could have a dramatic effect on the price of
oil. Markets, indeed, react not only to real risk, but to
mere perceptions of risk, and in a world where supply and
demand are carefully balanced, a nuclear Iran could
precipitate a dramatic spike in oil prices affecting the
global economy, and particularly net importers like Tanzania.
In short, Tanzania must make cessation of enrichment an
important piece of its dialogue with Iran, not only because
of regional security, but because its own investment in
long-term economic growth hung in the balance. The DCM asked
for a public statement urging Iran to cease its enrichment
program and fully cooperate with the IAEA.


5. (C) Deputy FM Iddi said that Tanzania has consistently
told Iran that the IAEA must be allowed to do its job. "We
have insisted to the GOI at the most senior levels that if
Iran has nothing to hide, they should come clean and show the
IAEA inspectors everything they ask to see." Iddi emphasized
that although Tanzania has been in debt-relief discussions
with the Government of Iran, progress in these talks are in
no way linked to any nuclear issues.

Comment
--------------

6. (C) If Tanzania steered clear of raising the nuclear issue
with Iran during the Vice President's recent trip, there were
short-term economic imperatives for doing so. The newspapers
in recent days, in covering the VP,s trip to Iran, have laid
out pieces of what seem to us to be a thinly disguised deal:
Iran will forgive Tanzanian debt totaling over USD 227
million, and in return, Tanzania pledges to open an embassy

DAR ES SAL 00001568 002 OF 002


in Tehran and, as the VP steps off the plane, he makes a
carefully calculated statement underlining Tanzania's support
for nuclear power developed for peaceful purposes, while
saying nothing about IAEA's problems with Iran, Iran's past
concealment of its enrichment program or Tanzania's staunch
opposition to a nuclear program aimed at weapons development.
In short, Tanzania at the moment is acting out of short-term
economic self-interest; however, we will continue drive home
the point that its long-term economic self-interest is not
served by a nuclear-armed Iran in the region with the world's
largest petroleum reserves.
GREEN