TANZANIA: MFA DIRECTOR OF AFRICAN AFFAIRS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 001154

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ALSO AF/RSA, AF/S
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LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA: MFA DIRECTOR OF AFRICAN AFFAIRS
DISCUSSES SADC SUMMIT ON ZIMBABWE, FNL WITHDRAWAL FROM
BURUNDI PEACE PROCESS

REF: STATE 109638

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission, D. Purnell Delly
for reasons 1.4(b,d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) The Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs African
Division, Ambassador Francis Malambugi, told the DCM August
14 that SADC leaders await President Mbeki's report on his
facilitation efforts between the Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ)
and Zimbabwe's opposition parties during the upcoming summit
in Lusaka, Zambia. In Tanzania's view, as the humanitarian
plight of the people of Zimbabwe continues to worsen, "it is
not productive for any country to isolate Zimbabwe." He
indicated that Mbeki's report may show that progress has been
slower than hoped for, but suggested we should wait and see
what the August 16-17 meeting reveals; he offered to give us
an out-brief immediately after the summit concludes.


2. (C) Turning to Burundi, Malambugi said the Government of
Tanzania (GOT) was certainly concerned when the FNL withdrew
from the Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JVMM)
on July 21, yet "heartened" that from that date until now,
they have not broken the ceasefire He said South Africa's
Minister for Safety and Security, Charles Nqakula, is the
lead negotiator and met with the rebel leaders on August
11-12 to listen to the FNL leaders' reasons for withdrawing.
Minister Nqakula came to brief President Kikwete in Dar es
Salaam on August 13. Malambugi emphasized the GOT remains
concerned that the Burundian refugee camps in western
Tanzanian are being fingered as a haven for rebel fighters
and thus will continue to push for all Burundian refugees to
return home as soon as possible. End Summary.

SADC Summit on Zimbabwe
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3. (C) Ambassador Malambugi confided all the SADC leaders are
disturbed that the humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe
continues to worsen. However, trying to isolate President
Mugabe would only cause him to further "dig in," based on his
freedom fighter mentality and legacy. Malambugi believed
that despite the dire economic situation in Zimbabwe, Mugabe
gains support when the EU, United States or others impose
sanctions or try to "push toward an end game." The DCM
replied that the U.S. believed that Zimbabwe was an issue for
Africa to address, and that SADC was the appropriate vehicle
to do so. At the same time, disastrous economic policies,
not sanctions, were the cause of suffering, and that the only
"end game" the U.S. desires is creation of free and open
political space in Zimbabwe, and a return of prosperity.


4. (C) The DCM asked the GOT's view on the SADC leaders' goal
during the upcoming Lusaka meeting to advance the plan of
action initiated in Dar es Salaam at the March 2007 SADC
summit. Malambugi would not predict an outcome, only noting
at the March SADC summit, the heads of state had entrusted
President Mbeki to a get the political dialogue between the
GOZ and opposition on track. Only after Mbeki gives his
report in Lusaka will the leaders consider and decide on next
steps. Malambugi admitted progress on the political dialogue
has been slow and perhaps frustrating for Mbeki, but stressed
that Tanzania has faced many frustrations in trying find a
lasting peace in Burundi, yet "we continue to try." He added
that Tanzania has learned that regional leverage can play an
important role. Thus, for the SADC leaders to give up on
efforts to influence Mugabe is "not an option," no matter how
long or frustrating the road to resolving the crisis in
Zimbabwe might be.

Burundi: Concern Yet Cautious Optimism
--------------

5. (C) In response to the DCM's query on the GOT's reaction
to the FNL withdrawing from the JVMM, Ambassador Malambugi
said the JVMM is the arena for dialogue. In his view, that

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body is impartial and able to deal with all issues or
complaints, even complaints against the facilitators.
Malambugi acknowledged that without the FNL in the mechanism,
the peace process in Burundi will slow down. Yet, he was
mildly optimistic noting the fact that the FNL has continued
to maintain the cease fire, might indicate they could be
persuaded to return to the JVMM. He said he had escorted the
South African Minister Nqakula during his stopover in Dar es
Salaam August 13 to brief President Kikwete. Kikwete knows
that in order for the peace agreement signed in Dar es Salaam
on September 7, 2006 to be fully implemented, the FNL needs
to be in the JVMM. The GOT has promised to use all its
influence to support efforts to bring the FNL back into the
process.


6. (SBU) Malambugi said he could not confirm reports that the
FNL members have gone to remote areas to regroup and possibly
rearm. "We do not know," Malambugi claimed. He noted that
Tanzania fully endorsed and supports the AU Peace and
Security Committee's August 10 statement expressing concern
at the FNL's action and calling for them to rejoin the JVMM.
In response to the DCM's query on the next steps Minister
Nqakula plans to take, Malambugi said the GOT does not know
in detail, but there is regional agreement that each country
support the South African envoy's efforts and do all possible
to bring the rebel FNL back into the JVMM.

Burundian refugee camps used as "scapegoat"
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7. (C) Malambugi stressed that with several Burundian refugee
camps still open in western Tanzania, fingers are often
pointed that Tanzania may be "harboring rebels or traitors"
in these camps. Thus in the GOT's view, the refugees should
all return to Burundi as soon as possible, to avoid the
camps' existence being used as a "scapegoat" for problems
with rebel groups. Malambugi said the rate of refugee
returns has not yet dropped in the wake of the FNL's
withdrawal on July 21. However, it is important for the FNL
to quickly rejoin the JVMM, so that confidence in the safety
and security situation in Burundi remains high, and does not
deter any refugees from returning.

Comment
--------------

8. (SBU) Ambassador Malambugi, appointed by President Kikwete
a few months ago to head up the African Division of MFA,
spoke frankly that both influencing Mugabe to take needed
steps to resolve the economic and political deterioration in
Zimbabwe and reaching a final resolution to the peace process
in Burundi, are thorny issues that will take patience and
perseverance. He commented that particularly in the case of
President Mugabe: "Who can ever know his real mind?"
However, Malambugi assured the DCM that we will get a full
briefing immediately following the SADC summit and updates as
needed on progress in the Burundi peace process.
RETZER