ZANZIBAR IMPASSE TO CONTINUE, SAYS CUF SECRETARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 001075

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR IMPASSE TO CONTINUE, SAYS CUF SECRETARY
GENERAL HAMAD

REF: DAR ES SALAAM 00888

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4b and d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In contrast to his public statements that
reconciliation talks between Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and
Civic United Front (CUF) are going well, CUF Secretary
General Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad recently stated privately
that the talks are unlikely to resolve the political impasse
in Zanzibar. He further predicted that CCM was wrong to
assume that peace and tranquility will continue in Zanzibar.
The results of the talks, to be announced on August 15, will
be an indicator of future stability in Zanzibar. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) As reported in reftel, talks between the ruling CCM
party and the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) aimed at
resolving the political impasse in Zanzibar stalled in late
May after CCM Secretary General Yusuf Makamba made numerous
inflammatory statements at a rally on Pemba, one of the two
isles of Zanzibar. In June conversations with the DCM and
PolOffs (reftel),CUF leaders expressed little hope that the
talks would produce a workable solution to the problems in
Zanzibar. Since that time, CCM and CUF have not publicly
released any details of the negotiations. However, in
advance of the self-imposed August 15 deadline for the end of
the talks, CUF Secretary General Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad has
publicly suggested that the talks will result in a
power-sharing arrangement that is favorable to CUF.


3. (C) On July 30, in an off-the-record meeting with Voice
of America correspondent Shaka Ssali and PolOff, Hamad
offered a dramatically different point of view. He expressed
his party's continued disappointment with efforts by
President Jakaya Kikwete to end the political stalemate in
Zanzibar and predicted that the ongoing talks would not
result in a resolution of the impasse. Hamad further stated
that President Kikwete has refused his requests for a
meeting. According to Hamad, "If Kikwete meets with me, he
will aggravate (Zanzibar President Amani Abeid) Karume."
Hamad stated that he believes CCM's plan is to drag the talks
out until the next elections in 2010. In CUF's view, a power
sharing agreement (their goal in the talks) must be reached
before 2010, to ensure fair and transparent elections.


4. (C) Echoing previous statements from his CUF colleagues,
Hamad told Ssali and PolOff that radical groups operating in
Zanzibar are having increasing success recruiting
impoverished, disenfranchised youth to their causes. "The
less confidence they have in CUF," he said, "the more radical
they become." Hamad stressed: "CCM assumes that peace and
tranquility in Zanzibar will continue. It may take loss of
life in Zanzibar before CCM acknowledges that there is a
problem."


5. (C) COMMENT: Seif Sharif Hamad's comments are notable for
two reasons. First, they directly contradict his public
statements that the ongoing inter-party reconciliation talks
will produce a result palatable to CUF. In addition, the
tone of his comment regarding loss of life in Zanzibar was
uncharacteristically grave. In the past, Hamad has played
the role of peacemaker in his party, encouraging CUF members
to settle their grievances without recourse to violence.
However, Hamad and other CUF leaders have begun to state
privately over the past two months that their members have
lost faith in the reconciliation talks. While it remains to
be seen if Hamad's fears about CUF's leaders losing authority
within the party are accurate, post will continue to monitor
both the talks and the reactions of the CUF rank and file as
the August 15 deadline draws near. END COMMENT.
RETZER