WHY WADE WON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000554

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI PHUM PINR KDEM KISL SG
SUBJECT: WHY WADE WON

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Defying predictions, President Abdoulaye Wade crushed
all comers in the February 25 election. Senegalese disagree
if there was fraud and on the degree of registration
manipulation, but all concur President Wade had the money,
machinery and message to win. Wade's charisma and an
inconsequential opposition convinced self-interested voters
to reward him for his grand projects and for his promise that
&the best is yet to come8. END SUMMARY.

THE PDS STEAMROLLER
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2. (C) Commenting that election results rank-ordered
candidates by wealth, recent ministerial-rank Wade advisor
Bassirou Sarr called money a key component of President
Wade,s victory. With it, Wade and his Senegalese Democratic
Party (PDS) were able to run a massive electoral machine that
created networks of supporters able to reach every corner of
the country. Sarr said Wade skillfully divided the
opposition by giving money to smaller independent candidates
to split the vote of stronger rivals Idrissa Seck and
Socialist Ousmane Tanor Dieng. Professor Boubacar Diop,
Cheikh Anta Diop University historian and a former teacher,s
union leader, underlined that an increase in teacher, civil
servant and military salaries just prior to the elections did
not hurt the President at all.

THE OPPOSITION THAT WASN,T
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3. (C) &Calling them weak is to admit there actually was an
opposition8 wryly commented Forum Civil Coordinator Mouhamed
Mbodj. Since its 2000 defeat, Mbodj maintained, the
Socialist Party (PS),has not adapted to being out of power,
has failed to present itself as credible alternative to the
PDS, remains mistrusted by the electorate and is led by an
uninspiring gray apparatchik. Mbodj assailed the meek
strategy of trying to be a highbrow &republican opposition8
saying people could not identify with it as a vehicle for
discontent. Attorney Demba Cire Bathily, Amnesty
International's President in Senegal, agreed, describing the
opposition over the last seven years as &inconsequential8
and incoherent. He complained that they never faced down
Wade on any subject even during major financial scandals. He
faulted the opposition as well for not coalescing around a
leader with star wattage to match Wade, and criticized them
for failing to present credible or "stirring" alternatives.

WADE: THE GREAT COMMUNICATOR
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4. (C) Everyone agrees Wade ran a great campaign: out of 15
candidates he was the only one who really knew how to appeal
to the hopes and dreams of a largely illiterate and rural
electorate. Diop says Wade changed the political landscape,
replacing the old system with a well run, dynamic and vibrant
machine. He exploited his bully pulpit and state-controlled
media throughout the country while deftly timing the opening
of major projects, such as a new (if not yet functioning)
university or bridge to coincide with elections. Wade also
extended Radio Television Senegal,s (RTS,s) reach all the
way into Europe and throughout West Africa, Sarr noted,
reaching Senegal's large immigrant community who in turn
called families back in Senegal urging them to vote for Wade.

WADE: THE ARCHITECT
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5. (C) Running under the slogan &let,s continue to build
Senegal together,8 Wade was able to tout infrastructure
projects into an election victory. Dakar is in the throes of
major construction in readiness for a hoped-for 2008
Organization of the Islamic Conferences (OIC) summit, and
much of the countryside has benefited from enough new and
visible schools, clinics, rural lighting, roads and bridges
to make people believe Wade is a man who can deliver on
promises. In fact, Wade,s campaign published a glossy
94-page brochure with all of his accomplishments, which
contrasted the number of kindergartens, schools, hospitals,
health centers, roads, bridges and other infrastructure
completed between 1960 and 2000 with those completed during
Wade,s first term (2000 ) 2007).

A SELF-CENTERED ELECTORATE
--------------

6. (C) Mbodj credits the rural population for utilitarianism
in knowing what they want and how to get it. Long ago they
understood Wade was prepared to share the pie and believed
support for him would translate into concrete improvements in

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their lives. In turn Wade tapped into the Senegalese voter's
"opportunistic nature." Further concrete successes that
President Wade built on include free caesarians for rural
women, scholarships for all university students, low
inflation, tripling of the national budget through better
income tax collection, and reduction of corporate tax from 33
to 25 percent. Mbodj and Diop agree that while Wade failed
to live up to many of his grander 2000 electoral promises,
the opposition was unable to effectively articulate
alternative programs. They also agree that people were
generally uninterested or unable to comprehend the subtle
debates among opposition parties.

FRAUD? MAYBE, MAYBE NOT
--------------

7. (C) &Not transparent,8 not democratic,8 &manipulation
of the voter registry,8 &imperfections8 and
&dysfunctional8 are all terms we hear to describe the
elections, but few, other than some diehards directly engaged
in the opposition campaigns, argue they were not
fundamentally free and fair. Amnesty's Bathily accused the
Interior Ministry of being deliberately slow to give out
voter registration cards in areas were they knew the PDS was
weak, and Mbodj questioned how it was possible for only 3.4
million voters to get registration cards out of an eligible
electorate of five million people who had applied for them up
to a year ago.


8. (C) Mbodj suspects that in hindsight Wade,s victory was
largely based on the vote of the generally ignored rural
population whom nobody bothered to poll or question prior to
the elections. He faults the intellectual elite for
marginalizing this group who saw enough improvements in their
lives and no credible alternative to keeping Wade in power
for another five years. "Walfadjri" group chairman Sidi
Lamine Niasse told us "everthing" Wade has done in office was
designed to assure first his place, and then perhaps the
legacy of his family, in the Senegalese presidency. An
American citizen who travels often throughout the country
tells us that during the campaign, poor folk climbing into a
bush taxi almost anywhere in the country would find an older,
probably distinguished looking gentleman who would offer, but
not press, information and counsel on what Wade had done for
the country.

COMMENT
--------------

9. (C) This might be seen as manipulation, but it also shows
awareness, empathy, care and concern for a population that
long felt neglected by government. Wade had, it now seems
clear, carefully built his re-election bid from the very
beginning of his presidency. Post-election calm and the
distressed but nonetheless muted rhetoric of the defeated
opposition attest to the fact that Wade ran a first-class
campaign. Not even his most fervent supporters were
predicting such a wipeout. While we have talked of money and
manipulation, meanwhile, we should not assume this was not
welcomed by the rural poor. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar,s classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.
JACOBS