BISHOPS, MARABOUTS, BUSINESSMEN AND STONE-THROWING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000314

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE, DRL/IRF AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2017
TAGS: PINS PHUM PGOV PINR KDEM KIRF SG
SUBJECT: BISHOPS, MARABOUTS, BUSINESSMEN AND STONE-THROWING
VOTERS

REF: DAKAR 0203

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER FOR REASONS 1.4(B) A
ND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) The election campaign has begun, marked by President
Abdoulaye Wade's reaffirmation of the importance to him of
religion, and by the first acts of violence against major
presidential candidates. Days before, the country's most
activist and outspoken religious leader told visiting AF/W
Desk Officer Dorsey Lockhart why postponing elections was the
best strategy for assuring social peace. While Tidjane
spokesperson Abdoul Aziz Sy al Ibn (Junior) was reuniting
Wade with former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck to achieve
peace, Catholic Archbishop of Dakar Theodore Andrien Sarr and
the other Catholic bishops were persuading the opposition to
drop its planned February 2 march to press for holding the
elections on the original schedule. The opposition abandoned
not only the demonstration but also efforts to hold the
legislative elections before June 3. Although the content of
any Wade-Seck agreement remains shrouded in mystery, Seck has
rejoined the ruling party while maintaining his candidacy for
the presidency, and he secured the release of his aides and
of prominent businessman Bara Tall. END SUMMARY.

FAITH AND SECURITY
--------------

2. (SBU) President Wade spent February 4, the first day of
the election campaign, in the heart of the Mouride
Brotherhood capital to affirm "I am a Muslim and a Mouride."
He was careful to add, though, "I help out all religious
courts," a reference to his recent handouts for cultural
centers, libraries or home improvements for various spiritual
leaders. Despite his largesse, Muslim and Catholic leaders
have voiced concern about laggard election preparations,
potential for fraud and above all the danger of post-election
violence. Catholic bishops called for transparency, personal
security and respect for election results. An imam warned
media that, "all conditions for post-election trouble are
present." The Salafist Jamaatu Ibadou Rahman predicted
consequences from politicians' "inconstancy and deviousness."

TIDJANE LEADER ENCOURAGES ELECTION POSTPONEMENT
-------------- --

3. (C) On January 31, Tidjane spokesman Abdoul Aziz Sy al
Ibn (Junior),told visiting AF/W Desk Officer Lockhart of his
concerns for social peace and of recommendations he had
offered Wade and ex-Prime Minister Seck while organizing
their recent reunions (Reftel). Economic and social
failures, incompetence or manipulation in preparing the
elections, and opposition splintering would all cast doubt on
the outcome of the February 25 presidential election, he
said. Wade badly wanted two more years added to his term to
finish large-scale construction projects and prepare a
successor, but had decided he could not postpone elections
because "the western powers will clobber me, and I'll have no
legitimacy with the opposition."


4. (C) In fact, Junior stressed, while the opposition were
publicly demanding adherence to election schedules, they were
hoping privately and even encouraging a delay. The potential
for post-election violence was simply too great, and the
danger was not just from pro-Wade militias: "there will be
groups, jobless young people who tried and failed to slip
into Europe by boat," who are angry and will take to the
streets if they're unhappy with the election. Since there
was no other way to assure social stability in a very
troubled time, Junior said, he supported an election
postponement, and had made that clear to Wade, Seck and the
opposition. When we argued, emphatically, that the U.S.
expected respect for national institutions and actions in
accordance with law and the Constitution, Junior accepted
that, yes, "all the peoples of the Book, Muslim, Christian
and Jew, had great respect for the rule of the written word."


5. (U) Junior only attended the beginning of the first
Wade-Seck meeting; little information has emerged from that
four-hour meeting or the three meetings that followed. What
we know thus far is that Seck has rejoined the Senegalese
Democratic Party (PDS) while maintaining his candidacy for
president; Seck secured the release of his aides Vieux
Sandiery Diop, Cheikh Ndiaye and Dame Dieng who were detained
in St. Louis in November, as well as Bara Tall, the President
of Jean Lefebvre-Senegal. The judiciary dismissed fraud and
embezzlement charges against Tall, and with his release, the
&Chantiers de Thies8 corruption case would seem closed
without the High Court of Justice ever convening.

DAKAR 00000314 002 OF 002



SOME EARLY INCIDENTS
--------------

6. (C) There has been some rock throwing at various events,
especially Seck rallies. The Cheikh Anta Diop and Gaston
Berger University campuses are quiet; students who care about
political issues are off campaigning for their candidates and
will return only after election day to express their
happiness or anger at the outcome. The most serious
near-incident of violence occurred in Saint Louis, when the
up-and-coming young politician Talla Sylla was approached by
a man with a machete. His bodyguard wrestled him down and
police arrested him though they released him later on the
reported grounds that he was not political, just crazy.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) The election campaign has now begun, and it seems
virtually impossible that the election will now be postponed.
Tidjane leader Junior's support for postponement, though,
represented what is apparently a widespread belief that
severe social unrest could be ignited by a combination of
severe economic and social conditions, the inadequacy or
manipulation of election preparations, and Wade's insistence
that he needs a guarantee of two more years to assure his
legacy. For Junior and we believe for many others, the
stipulations of the law and Constitution are secondary to
maintaining social peace.


8. (C) On a more practical level, many of Senegal,s 4.9
million voters still do not have their voter cards; estimates
range from 5 to 60 percent. Turnout at some of President
Wade,s rallies this week has been pathetic, but it is way
too early to count Wade or any of the other 14 candidates
out. END COMMENT.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar,s classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.
JACOBS