Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DAKAR2212
2007-11-14 15:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

LA RENTREE POLITIQUE 2007 - SUCCESSION SUCCESSION,

Tags:  PGOV PINS SOCI PINR KDEM KISL SG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6012 
PP RUEHPA 
DE RUEHDK #2212/01 3181528 
ZNY CCCCC ZZH 
P 141528Z NOV 07 
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR 
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9562 
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 002212 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI PINR KDEM KISL SG
SUBJECT: LA RENTREE POLITIQUE 2007 - SUCCESSION SUCCESSION,
SUCCESSION

REF: A. DAKAR 1859 B. DAKAR 1821 C. DAKAR 1541 D. 06 DAKAR 2271 E. 06 DAKAR 1925

Classified By: CHARGE D,AFFAIRES JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 002212

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI PINR KDEM KISL SG
SUBJECT: LA RENTREE POLITIQUE 2007 - SUCCESSION SUCCESSION,
SUCCESSION

REF: A. DAKAR 1859 B. DAKAR 1821 C. DAKAR 1541 D. 06 DAKAR 2271 E. 06 DAKAR 1925

Classified By: CHARGE D,AFFAIRES JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) In "Rentree Poltique 2006," we characterized the
Senegalese opposition as self-pitying, the people as angry at
the cost of living, youth as depressed about their prospects,
and President Abdoulaye Wade as personalizing power. Not
only has nothing changed since then, but the situation has
worsened and will continue to worsen as the political and
governing classes concentrate on the presidential succession
battle instead of running the country. Other major upcoming
events of note are the planned March summit of the
Organization of the Islamic Conference and local elections in
May. For their part, newly elected and appointed Deputies
and Senators face an uphill battle to restore the credibility
of a perennially supine and ineffective parliament. End
Summary.

Qui est le Dauphin?
--------------

2. (C) Ever since the octogenarian Wade won re-election in
February 2007, the question of who will succeed him continues
to rage unabated. Wade has at times both stimulated and
purposefully confused this debate by cryptically hinting who
he might designate as his sucessor and once went as far as
stating that nobody but him could run Senegal effectively.
Several names that have been liberally tossed around include
National Assembly President and former Prime Minister Macky
Sall, newly elected President of the Senate and incumbent
Mayor of Dakar Pape Diop, Director of the Organizing Agency
for the Organization of the Islamic Conference and First Son
Karim Wade, former Prime Minister and PDS black sheep Idrissa
Seck, as well as, but to a lesser extent, Interior Minister
Ousmane Ngom.


3. (C) No matter who emerges as the heir apparent, all our
contacts agree that this issue will dominate the country's
political scene for the foreseeable future. Those who think

that they have a shot will do whatever they can to remain in
Wade's good graces; thus tough political and economic reforms
will likely remain off the agenda. Meanwhile, backroom deals
will be struck as each potential candidate looks to
consolidate and solidify his respective position while trying
to undermine those of perceived competitors. Amadou Barry, a
newly chosn Senator who has been in the PDS since 1980 and a
former deputy in the National Assembly, says tha deep rifts
exist in relations between the front-runners and that they
will take whatever opportunties they can to thwart each
other. He describe Macky Sall and Pape Diop as &Faux
Amis8 (False riends) and noted that the entente cordialle
beteen Karim Wade and Macky Sall was no longer cordial It
is also well-known that Osman Ngom and Idrisa Seck dislike
each other intensely and have cashed many times in the past.
Overshadowing this debate is whether or not Wade will revamp
the Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) (Ref A). If he does
and in effect resets the political clock to zero a new name
might emerge as it did when he picked the obscure Hadjibou
Soumare to be prime minister. In essence, Wade's main
concern is to prevent the Socialist Party (PS) from returning
to power.

Plots and counterplots
--------------


4. (C) Describing Wade as the "builder of road/n%Q`Q-QymQ3Q
political climate had become poisoned with plots and
counterplots. Tine argues that the political situation in
Senegal today reminds him of that of Cote d'Ivoire's before
its civil war: "In Cote d'Ivoire the war broke out because
the ruling party had internal political problems, it had
nothing to do with the situation in the country. Now Senegal
is not at that point yet and is much more stable, but nobody
knows how the internal power struggles in the PDS will end."
Sergine Mbaye Thiam, former Socialist Deputy and the
political guru for the Front Siggil Senegal (FSS) echoed this
sentiment, contending that Wade no longer had control over
his domain and that his advisors had too much influence over
his decisions.

The Opposition Trying to find its way
--------------


5. (C) In 2006, we described the main opposition parties as
wallowing in self-pity. Since then their plight has only
worsened as a result of their virtual elimination from the
political scene in the aftermath of their defeat in the
February Presidential elections, which was compounded by a
subsequent boycott of the June legislative elections which
many people in Senegal interpreted as childish. The
opposition parties, now pooled under the Front Siggil Senegal
(FSS) umbrella, have no representation in any of Senegal's
governing institutions and are now trying to revive their
political relevancy by pushing for a "National Dialogue."
However, while this idea has some support (REF B),the FSS is
beginning to slowly disintegrate as each member party weighs
its own political fortunes.


6. (C) Perhaps the most significant member of the coalition
is Idrissa Seck's Rewmi party. Seck has suspended his
party's activities with the FSS and has for sometime now been
in negotiations with Wade to see whether a return to the PDS
fold is possibility (REF C). Meanwhile, the smaller members
of the FSS are all trying to position themselves to compete
in the May 2008 local elections. The Socialist Party seems
to be contemplating taking to the streets. While the
opposition has long maintained that any election under the
current system is open to fraud and abuse, they find
themselves in a Catch-22 because if they do not compete in
the local elections they will lose any remaining hope they
have of remaining relevant. Meanwhile Wade's strategy to
co-opt people into the PDS is working. For example the
Socialist Mayor of Bakel (a border town with Mauritania)
confessed to Poloff that he was seriously considering joining
the PDS because the central government is not providing any
funding to his city. The fact is that these kinds of
defections are all too common in Senegal. For example, after
the Socialist Mayor of Mbour switched to the PDS he was
swiftly rewarded with a brand new SUV and an immediate flow
of funds.


7. (C) Mustafa Dieng, the chairman of the board of
state-owned Radio Television Senegal (RTS) and Wade friend,
roundly dismissed the opposition, describing them as the
"caviar" opposition. Dieng opined, "They are afraid of being
a true opposition - why are they not on the streets
protesting? Because they're afraid to get dirt on them. And
their National Dialogue? What is the point? I mean do you
really expect the President to implement policies crafted by
the opposition? That's unreasonable."

Local Elections
--------------


8. (C) Unlike the Legislative elections it, is likely that
every opposition party in Senegal, either under one banner or
individually, will compete in local elections, even if some
are now saying that they are only "considering it." These
elections are about electing the person everybody knows in
his or her local district and have very little to do with
what is going on nationally or with party politics. That
being said, the country's economic woes as a well as what is
expected to be a poor harvest may result in a backlash
against the PDS as people look for someone to blame for their
strife. Whoever wins locally, the biggest looser will be the
national budget as government resources will once again be
poured into expenditures designed to assist PDS candidates
win elections along the lines of what the PDS did prior to
the presidential and the largely uncontested legislative
elections.

The People Remain Angry and Disillusioned
--------------


9. (C) The historically low turnout for the June legislative
election underlined the average Senegalese's loss of faith in
the country's legislative branch, which now faces an uphill
battle to restore its credibility. Senator Barry agreed that
the people had good reason to be angry at the National
Assembly, but suggested that many did not know what they were
doing as their work is seldom reported. Barry said that the
Parliament needs to do a much better job in showcasing what
it does and that the production of good laws, transparency,
and financial oversight would help. Separately Latife Gueye,
the fifth Vice President of the National Assembly, concurred,
saying that in order to turn the National Assembly into a
political force its members needed to take strong initiatives
to show the people that they were working hard on their
behalf. He then blamed the Socialist governments of the past
for ruining the standing of a Deputy and praised Wade for
returning respectability to the institution by giving them
the means to their jobs, adding that the new Assembly is much
more diverse and includes many experts in a variety of
fields.


10. (C) In reality, the National Assembly boasts only two
credible members of the opposition and the Senate none at
all. Under these circumstances it is difficult to see how
the parliament can hope to recover any of its credibility.
Cheikh Bamba Dieye (protect),one of those opposition
members, told poloff that he has absolutely no faith in the
very institution he works in. "After a meeting when I
challenged the government and the PDS, members of the PDS who
had been arguing against me an hour earlier congratulated me
for my position and confessed that they agreed with me," he
told us. He also describes the PDS as cannibalistic.
"They've grown so much and wiped out so many opponents that
naturally they will begin to feed on themselves.8 He went
on to say that Wade was the only real glue holding the PDS
together and that the disconnect between the PDS and the
people was reminiscent of the late 1990's which led to the PS
eventually being ousted from power by Wade in 2000.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) In reviewing last year's comments (REF D),the
unavoidable conclusion is that little has changed in one
year. Wade's grip on power has only increased, political
dialogue is tongue-tied, and institutions enfeebled. The
President's recent dissolution of the Council for Social and
Economic Affairs (CRAES) for the apparent purpose of firing
its chairman shows little regard for the institutions of
state. Economically, the situation has worsened with a
larger budget deficit, opaque and loosely structured
privatizations or investment deals with Gulf countries, Iran,
and China, higher prices for basic necessities and fuel, more
frequent power cuts, and many young people who still prefer
the perilous clandestine migration to Spain rather than
building a future at home. Rather than focusing urgent
attention on these pressing issues, the ruling party has
instead spent its time trying to sort out the succession
battle. Prime Minister Soumare's rather anemic September
presentation to the parliament of his government's priorities
may be and indication that bold policies initiatives or major
reforms are unlikely any time soon.

SMITH