IS POLITICAL VIOLENCE ON THE HORIZON?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002211

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI PINR KDEM CASC SG
SUBJECT: IS POLITICAL VIOLENCE ON THE HORIZON?

REF: A) DAKAR 2134 B) DAKAR 2122

Classified By: CHARGE D,AFFAIRES JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (
D).

SUMMARY
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1. (S) In November 5 meeting Charge informed Barthelemy Dias,
the new leader of the Socialist Party's youth movement and
perennial presidential thorn in the side, that he had been
summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and informed that
because of Dias's American citizenship the GOS believes it is
inappropriate for Dias to be a vocal critic of President
Abdoulaye Wade and his government. The Charge was urged to
rein him in - otherwise Senegal would consider deporting him.
Dias, a naturalized American whose father is a very
prominent Senegalese politician, was born and raised in
Senegal. Dias replied he was aware of the government's
efforts to silence him and asserted that the government would
never carry out this threat and did not rule out violence as
a means to get Wade out of power. End Summary.

The Animosity Runs Deep
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2. (C) Dias is a brash, young Socialist Party (PS) politician
whom by all accounts President Wade hates. In 2006 Wade had
both father and son arrested. In a discussion with Poloffs
Dias detailed how his father, who has served all three of
Senegal's presidents, was dragged out of his house in his
underwear at five o'clock in the morning by the Criminal
Investigations Department (DIC) police, how his mother was
beaten up, and how his house was ransacked. The younger Dias
spent three months in jail without ever being charged (Note:
these events were all documented in Senegal's 2006 Human
Rights report. End note.). Most recently, Dias and his PS
colleagues booed Wade during a speech he was giving to the
Congressional Black Caucus in Washington. Reports indicate
that Wade was visibly shaken as he is unused to this kind of
treatment in Senegal. Now that Dias has been elevated to a
prominent and powerful position within the PS (Ref A) Wade
appears to be looking for ways to sideline him, shut him up,
or get rid of him. Hence, the Charge,s cryptic summons to
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

He,s one of yours... Do something
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3. (S) In a meeting with the MFA's Chief of Staff, Mankeur
Ndiaye, Charge was informed that Dias was an American citizen
who was making outrageous and abusive statements about the
President and his family and that he could be escorted to the
"border at anytime." Ndiaye implied that the Charge should
talk to him and warn him to shut up. Subsequently, Charge
called Dias for a meeting for the purpose of advising him of
the Ndiaye conversation, whereupon Dias told him he was aware
of the government's threats and its attempt to use his
American citizenship as a basis for threatening him with the
loss of his Senegalese citizenship. Moreover, he said that
the same thing had happened to his father. Dias said that
his family name is Cape Verdean in origin. When his father
was arrested he was reportedly asked, "Are you Senegalese?"
in spite of having been born in Senegal to Senegalese
parents. In response to this threat Dias told Charge: "If I
am deported, half of Wade's cabinet and his wife would be on
the plane with me and anyway I would be back in the country
in 72 hours. They used the ethnicity card in the Ivory Coast
and looked what happened there."


4. (S) Dias then told Charge that in the aftermath of the
recent PS Congress big changes were afoot in the party and PS
members were getting ready to hit the streets hard. Dias
combatively asserted, "Wade has to understand that we are
serious. There is a great possibility that blood will flow,
people will end up in jail and some might even get killed."
Charge emphasized that the United States categorically
deplores the use of violence, adding that political change
must come through peaceful and legal means. Dias shot back
that Wade understands nothing but violence and that if the
president continues his refusal to meet with the opposition
they would be left with little choice but to escalate the
confrontations. Dias also declared that PS would stop the
planned March 2008 Organization of the Islamic Conferences
(OIC) Summit from taking place, although he did not elaborate
how he would achieve this goal.

A Major Grudge - But Dias Could Be Dangerous
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5. (S) In a subsequent meeting with PolOffs Dias expanded and
expounded: "Wade is corrupt, sick, and old. His son Karim -
whom I know very well because we played together as kids -

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and all his cronies are thieves. Karim has stolen over USD
300 million. Every time there is a project he forces the
bidders to jack up their prices so that he can get his cut.
The (Route en) Corniche (road project) could have been built
for 16 billion CFA (USD 36 million) but instead it was built
for 22 billion CFA (USD 49 million) because of Karim. The
people are sick and tired." He then added: "If Karim becomes
President it's all over for us, he will put us all in jail.
He's loaded and he will do whatever he wants. Wade won't be
ousted through an election. Violence is the only way we can
get him out of power. This is a man who can do what he
wants. He can dissolve the Assembly tomorrow by just
changing the Constitution which his parliament will do. Look
at what he did with Council of the Republic for Economic and
Social Affairs (CRAES). He dissolved the institution just to
put his girlfriend (Note: Persistent rumors of a Presidential
relationship with prominent Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS)
women's leader Aminata Tall have been circulating for many
years now) in charge.8(REF B).

A Word of Caution
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6. (S) PolOffs cautioned Dias that violence was not the way
to go about changing governments, adding that many steps have
yet to be taken. In answer to a question about the upcoming
May 2008 local elections, Dias revealed (confidentially) that
the Socialist Party would/would contest local elections but
that they will not announce this until very late in the game:
"If we announce it now and Wade feels like public opinion is
going against him he will just postpone the elections."
(Comment: There is truth to this statement given that Wade
postponed both presidential and legislative elections on
multiple occasions. End comment.) PolOffs emphasized that
in a democracy many tools, such using the media and marches
are available to a creative opposition and that so far none
of those had yet to be deployed. Dias acknowledged that
perhaps this was true, but seemed adamant that Wade's fire
had to be met with fire.

Comment
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7. (S) Dias certainly seems eager to use violence as a
political tool and is probably charismatic enough to convince
others to follow him, which is probably why the PS leadership
put him in charge of the potentially volatile student and
youth movement. Dias, however, is unlikely to act
independently of PS leader Ousmane Tanor Dieng who himself
has refrained from even suggesting tactics resembling those
outlined by Dias. Dias's talk of violence and death is
nonetheless worrisome and comes at a time of increased
dissatisfaction with Wade's government. Wade's recent, since
aborted, move the cut the salaries of civil servants (to be
reported septel) has generated widespread disquiet and unions
are talking seriously about striking. Trying to neutralize
political opponents is old hat for Wade, but the government's
attempt to get the United States involved in a domestic
imbroglio smacks of desperation and once again underlines
that Wade is increasingly giving into an inclination to use
autocratic measures to get his way. End Comment.
SMITH
SMITH