Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DAKAR203
2007-01-24 18:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

HUMBLE FATHER AND PRODIGAL SON: WADE AND SECK

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM KISL SG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7261
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0203/01 0241807
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241807Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7409
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000203 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM KISL SG
SUBJECT: HUMBLE FATHER AND PRODIGAL SON: WADE AND SECK
RECONCILE?

REF: A. DAKAR 0149


B. 05 DAKAR 2979

C. 05 DAKAR 2479

D. 05 DAKAR 1721

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000203

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM KISL SG
SUBJECT: HUMBLE FATHER AND PRODIGAL SON: WADE AND SECK
RECONCILE?

REF: A. DAKAR 0149


B. 05 DAKAR 2979

C. 05 DAKAR 2479

D. 05 DAKAR 1721

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) With his Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) in
shambles and poll numbers apparently dismal a month before
elections, President Abdoulaye Wade has absolved ex-Prime
Minister Idrissa Seck of alleged crimes and asked his
one-time "spiritual son" for reconciliation. Seck's
opposition coalition partner, though, Socialist Party leader
Ousmane Tanor Dieng, told the Ambassador that despite Wade's
claim, Seck will pursue an independent presidential
candidacy. No doubt distrusting the president who imprisoned
him and tried to disgrace him, Seck is seeking to assure that
Wade's offer has the blessing of both the Tidjane and Mouride
Islamic brotherhoods. Suggested press guidance is in para.

9. END SUMMARY.

WHAT BENEFITS OF INCUMBENCY?
--------------

2. (C) The ruling PDS is fraying at the edges and fractured
down the middle. Disgruntled would-be National Assembly
deputies have protested Wade's failure to add them to the
candidate list. To mollify them, Wade used the Council of
State's (a high administrative court's) invalidation of
parliamentary candidate allotments to delay legislative
elections, even as he prepares to re-create a Senate to
provide more patronage jobs (Ref A). Though challenged by
the opposition and despite Interior Minister Ousmane Ngom's
January 24 admission to the Ambassador that the problems
could be fixed in a day, Wade is determined to press ahead
with the postponement, hiding behind the requirements of the
new and not yet publicly available electoral code.


3. (C) Having put off his parliamentary reckoning, Wade had
to deal with split-off of Seck's sympathizers and the real
possibility of defeat. Ziguinchor Deputy Mayor Yaye Mane, a
Socialist who is no friend of Wade but usually reliable, told
visiting AF/W Desk Officer Dorsey Lockhart of new private PDS

polls showing Wade winning only about 30 percent of the
presidential vote, or almost exactly what he won in the first
round of the 2000 election. Facing this threat and described
by leading daily "Walfadjri" as "bruised and battered," Wade
called on Seck spiritual guide, Tidjane spokesman Abdoul Aziz
Sy al Ibn (Junior) to bring Seck to the presidency. After a
three-way meeting and a carefully photographed handshake, the
President announced "... I am after all the father and my
duty always is to reassemble the sons."

HMM ... NOT SO FAST
--------------

4. (C) There is firm and virtually universal conviction that
Wade offered Seck a really good political deal. Some think
Wade agreed to Seck's longstanding demand that he step aside
as PDS presidential candidate, while others figure Wade
offered him a vice-presidency, presidency of the Senate or
National Assembly and recognition as eventual successor, but
none of this is substantiated. At the same time that Wade
and Seck were meeting, former Minister Awa Gueye Kebe was
filing Seck,s papers for a presidential bid. In any case
Seck has postponed sine die his reply to Wade while he tries
to assure that his foxy former mentor keeps to whatever word
he gave. To gain that assurance, he has gone to Touba to
consult with the Mouride Khalif, Wade's spiritual guide and
the only person with significant sway over the President.


5. (C) At the same time, Seck's political allies are in
shock or dismay. Pikine MP Samba Bathily told us he is dead
set against reconciliation with Wade, and that he is
organizing others on Seck's parliamentary candidate list to
lobby their leader to stand firm. On January 23, Seck's
opposition co-leader, the Socialist Tanor Dieng, told the
Ambassador he fully expects Seck to continue to pursue an
independent presidential candidacy. Public reaction has
ranged from disgust to relief, but Seck,s young supporters
and his base in Thies have been mostly critical of the
rumored reconciliation.

CORRALLING OTHER ERRANT SHEEP
--------------

6. (SBU) Following Wade's declaration of reconciliation with
Seck, the PDS announced two other rebels were returning to
the party. Ex-Environment Minister Modou Diagne Fada, whom

DAKAR 00000203 002 OF 003


PDS Parliamentary Questeur (whip) Lamine Thiam told us a week
ago Wade would "crush," will come back after a six-week
departure. Jean Paul Dias, Wade's volatile and decades-long
"frenemy," will also rejoin the PDS.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) Wade says his political nemesis Seck has accepted an
offer of reconciliation, but this is not yet certain. Seck
was Wade's protege for over a decade, learned politics at his
master's side and understands his capacity for infinite
flexibility, and therefore distrusts any promises
unaccompanied by iron-clad guarantees. The only guarantee
possible in Senegalese society is the active participation of
religious authorities, meaning the Tidjanes' Junior to
underwrite Seck's commitments and the Mouride Khalif for
Wade's promises.


8. (C) Even if a deal is ratified though, it will not be
easy going. Wade's inner circle, including son Karim, all
hate Seck with sincere and particular venom, and it is hard
to imagine them deliberating calmly with Seck in their midst.
Seck's closest advisors all made painful decisions to
abandon Wade, and many paid a political price for doing so.
Others in the PDS, including many long-time Wade militants,
back Seck silently either as a means of redressing Wade's
leadership shortcomings or as a younger alternative. We see
Wade's announcement of reconciliation as the beginning rather
than the culmination of negotiations between the two men.
END COMMENT.

SUGGESTED CONTINGENCY PRESS GUIDANCE
--------------

9. (U) Suggested contingency press guidance follows:

SENEGAL

JANUARY 24, 2007

CONTINGENCY PRESS GUIDANCE: &U.S. GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO
POSTPONEMENT OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN SENEGAL8

Q: What is the U.S. reaction to the Senegalese government,s
decision to postpone the parliamentary election that was
expected to take place on February 25, 2007 until June 3,
2007?

A: Information Minister Bacar Dia announced on January 18
that the legislative election will be held on June 3, but
this new date must be approved by the National Assembly and
could be subject to judicial review.

This second postponement of parliamentary polls, which were
originally scheduled to take place by June 2006, is cause for
concern in terms of timely and regular elections in Senegal.

Q: Does the postponement of the parliamentary election
affect the presidential election scheduled to take place on
February 25, 2007?

A: The U.S. Government fully expects that the presidential
election in Senegal will go forward on February 25.

Q: What will be the impact of President Abdoulaye Wade,s
January 22 decision to accept his former Prime Minister and
presidential candidate Idrissa Seck back in the fold of the
ruling PDS party?

A: The U.S. has no comment. We refer you to the Government
of Senegal and other concerned Senegalese parties for
possible response.

Q: Given the announcement by Wade of Seck,s return to the
PDS, does the U.S. now consider Tanor to be a more viable
presidential candidate?

A: The U.S. has no candidate ) that is something for the
people of Senegal to decide.

If pressed:

Q: But isn,t the U.S. Government concerned about the
emerging pattern of bureaucratic manipulation that has
enabled President Wade to twice postpone parliamentary
elections?

A: In a word, yes, we are concerned and we continue to
advocate the timely conduct of constitutionally prescribed
elections, in a peaceful and transparent manner.

DAKAR 00000203 003 OF 003



If asked only:

Q: What was the purpose of the U.S. Ambassador,s meeting on
January 23 with Senegalese Socialist Party Leader Ousmane
Tanor Dieng?

A: As part of our Embassy,s customary practice of meeting
with representatives of the Government of Senegal, political
parties, civil society, and religious groups, U.S. Ambassador
Janice Jacobs met with Socialist Party First Secretary
Ousmane Tanor Dieng on January 23.

It is standard practice for diplomatic missions to solicit
views from the widest range of contacts from all sectors of
society.

Background: On January 18, the GOS announced it would
postpone legislative elections in response to a January 12
decision by Senegal's highest administrative body, the
Council of State. The Council had voided President Abdoulaye
Wade's decree allotting National Assembly seats on grounds
that it disregarded demographic criteria in defining
electoral constituencies. The opposition and many local
civil society organizations have criticized the election
postponement. On January 22, President Wade announced that
he had invited former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck to rejoin
him and the ruling Senegalese Democratic Party from which
Seck had been expelled. Seck, who is in an electoral
alliance including Socialist Party leader Tanor Dieng, has
not yet responded to President Wade's invitation.
JACOBS