INTRIGUES TO POSTPONE ELECTIONS

UNCLAS DAKAR 000149

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SG
SUBJECT: INTRIGUES TO POSTPONE ELECTIONS

REF: A. DAKAR 0129

B. 06 DAKAR 2979

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) On January 18, the Minister of Information announced plans
to postpone legislative elections in response to a January 12 ruling
by the Council of State, Senegal's highest administrative body. The
Council voided President Wade's December decree allotting National
Assembly seats (Ref B) on the grounds that it disregarded
demographic criteria in defining electoral constituencies. Critics
suspect Wade provoked the Council decision and made election
postponement more saleable to the public by intentionally violating
the law. The ruling Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) is in
turmoil; the country's socio-economic situation is tense; and Wade
may wish to focus on reelection rather than devoting energy to the
even tougher task of maintaining his parliamentary majority. Wade's
plan for a new, largely appointed Senate may be designed to appease
the PDS faithful, but it will give him or his successor at least one
friendly legislative body. END SUMMARY.

TAKE IT AND RUN
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2. (SBU) On January 12, Interior Minister Ousmane Ngom and
Presidential spokesman Amadou Sall, both lawyers, announced within a
few hours of the Council of State's decision that legislative
elections would be postponed in order to have time to correct the
violations censured by the Council. Responding, the opposition
argued that the Government lacks legal authority to postpone
elections, and that the Constitution and law permit correction of
redistricting violations even as the organization of elections
proceeds. On January 18, following the weekly Council of Ministers
meeting, Minister of Information Bacar Dia announced that the
legislative elections would take place on June 3, subject to
approval by the courts.

AN ORCHESTRATED RULING
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3. (SBU) The opposition and some civil society critics accuse Wade
of committing two violations of the law. They say he blatantly
ignored demographic criteria laid out in the Electoral Code when
attributing seats to administrative districts, and that he signed
the decree before signing into law the bill on which it is based.
As an attorney surrounded by other attorneys, cynics argue, Wade had
to have known he was transgressing, but they believe he did so
purposefully to trap the opposition into a legal challenge that
would freeze the redistribution of National Assembly seats and
provide a plausible pretext for postponing elections.

POLITICAL SURVIVAL
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4. (SBU) By coupling legislative and presidential elections, Wade
had thought his coattails would enable his ruling party to retain
its parliamentary majority. 2006 has been a rough year for him,
though, with growing social and economic tensions, the ongoing
challenge of ex-Prime Minister Idrissa Seck, the dissatisfaction or
departure of other young leaders such as ex-Environment Minister and
influential Mouride Modou Diagne Fada, and Prime Minister Macky
Sall's inability to resolve internal ruling party rivalries over the
allotment of Assembly candidacies. Wade by many accounts feared
further dissension in his own ranks, and the possibility that his
own supporters would simply stay home on election day in a fit of
pique.

COMMENT
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5. (SBU) It is unclear whether the opposition and Wade's civil
society critics will get much popular or legal support in pressing
Wade to maintain the February 25 date for legislative elections.
Creating a new 100-seat Senate to which President Wade or his
successor would appoint 65 members is presumably intended to appease
PDS members and guarantee some control over the legislature should
the President be forced into cohabitation. END COMMENT.

JACOBS