SENEGAL,S SENATE RETURNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001283

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL,S SENATE RETURNS


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR OSMAN N. TAT FOR REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D).


SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) On February 12, 2007 the National Assembly passed a
law to revive a Senate that in 2001 President Wade had
declared unnecessary. With legislative elections over,
questions are rife as to why. Six factors seem to have
influenced Wade: Creating a power base for his son Karim,
consolidating power over his party; controlling the National
Assembly; controlling patronage; history and a passion to be
remembered as a creator and builder. Another topic is whom
Wade will appoint as President of the Senate as this person
is second in line to the Presidency. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) For months newspapers and magazines have been daily
printing article and opinions as to whom will succeed the
aging Abdoulaye Wade. A key component of this discussion is
the Senate, as the President of the Senate is now legally
second in line to succeed Wade in the event of his untimely
death. In a recent interview presidential cousin and
Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) parliamentary group chair
Doudou Wade defended the Senate saying that a bicameral
system is more democratic as it allows one chamber to &more
deeply8 review laws. He then went on to defend the fact
that Wade will be appointing 65 of the 100 Senators, saying
that elections sometimes create disequilibrium and that not
all of the country,s interests are represented. Thus, he
maintains, under this system disequilibrium can be rectified
by the head of state who will appoint a wide ranging
constituency to take in those people and interests who might
have been disenfranchised during an election. Not
surprisingly Doudou Wade, a strong supporter of First Son
Karim, is now one of the leading contenders for the
Presidency of the Senate as he is seen to be one of PDS,
most malleable and loyal members.

IT,S ALL ABOUT KARIM
--------------

3. (C) During a round table discussion with leading
opposition figures the consensus was that Wade created the
Senate to shore up support for his son. Ms. Rahmet Sow,
businesswoman and spokesperson for the small but vocal Jef
Jel party, said that the Senate is a key patronage tool for
Wade. As the size of the State grows, Wade needs an
institution where he can send supporters and enemies alike.
Supporters for a job well done; enemies to neutralize them.
According to Sow, Karim is slowly being pushed into the
consciousness of the Senegalese people. As head of the
organizing committee for the March 2008 Organization of
Islamic Conference (OIC) summit in Dakar, he is in charge of
revamping the city. He has also been President Wade,s point
man on relations with Arab investors and institutions and
thus has access to significant amounts of money. Ms. Sow
argues that Wade is creating for his son an image of the
&new man8 on the block and that those who support him will
stay and those who do not will slowly be pushed out -- to the
Senate. After this process, Karim will emerge as man who has
strong ties to Arab money, the support of the Islamic
community and the Mouride Brotherhood and as someone who has
&concrete8 success in building his father,s vision of a
new city. The fact that Karim,s face already emblazons
signs all over Dakar hailing the &generation du Concret8
(The Generation of Substance) seems to support this theory.

SURE MAYBE -- BUT HE MAY TRY SOMETHING MORE DIRECT
-------------- --------------

4. (C) Ibrahima Sene, Politburo member of the Party for
Independence and Labor, whose President Amath Dansokho is the
leader of the election boycotting Front Siggil Senegal,
posits a far more direct approach. In an interview he gave
to &Le Matin,8 an independent Dakar daily, he argued that
Wade is planning to have future presidents elected not by the
people but by a simple majority vote in the National Assembly
and the Senate. He contends that he cannot think of any
other reasons why the Wade would revive the Senate when the
National Assembly is already moribund and ineffectual. He
believes that Wade will choose a party hack to be President
of the Senate, then resign and maneuver to have his son voted
in as President by a National Assembly where the PDS controls
131 out of 150 seats, and a Senate where 65 out of 100
Senators will owe their allegiance to him.

HE CONTROLS THE PDS, THE ELITE AND THE ASSEMBLY
-------------- --

5. (C) Ismail Madior Fall, one of Senegal,s leading
constitutional experts, argues that the Senate further
increases the executive,s power to the detriment of the

DAKAR 00001283 002 OF 002


legislative and judicial branches. Fall argues that for Wade
the Senate offers three distinct advantages. It allows him
to totally control his PDS; a party that is held together
more by patronage than ideology and which may not survive
Wade even if his son becomes President. It gives the
political elite somewhere to go; the Cabinet already has 44
ministers and the number of Embassies has grown significantly
during Wade,s tenure. The Senate thus becomes a patronage
venue. It gives him even more control over the National
Assembly. While the Assembly is weak, Wade does not want to
leave anything to chance.


6. (C) In describing Wade,s thought processes, Famara Sarr,
an opposition member in the last Assembly, quoted Wade,s
current Interior Minister who famously commented of Wade:
&He thinks like a democrat but acts like an autocrat.8
Sarr, a leading light of Senegal,s left, contends that Wade
is only interested in democracy as an instrument to give him
more power. He further argues that either the installation
of Karim as President or a weak legislative branch means that
it will give his family a guarantee that members will not be
prosecuted once he dies or retires.


7. (C) Abdoulaye Drame, a PDS Member of the previous
parliament and potential future Senator, confirmed that the
PDS, and in some respects, Senegal is facing a massive
internal battle as Wade concentrates on his succession. He
observed that the PDS is not a party where truth is tolerated
and that its gut reaction is to control everybody within its
orbit: &If there is anger within the ranks no one will
express it because Wade controls all of the positions of
power. If you cross him, you will be tossed aside. No one
wants to risk this. A realignment is very possible, even the
emergence of a new party focused around Karim and supported
by the Senate and a pliant National Assembly.8 He added
that money, favors and patronage are the dominant factors of
Senegalese politics and that Wade,s supporters are fully
aware that he is generous to those who back him.

HISTORY AND LEGACY
--------------

8. (SBU) In 1974 Wade declared that he would set up a Senate
if elected President. Now, history has come full circle and
the man who disbanded the Senate has once again revived it.
It is well known Wade is very conscious of his country,s
internal sense of history and his own legacy. The people do
see Wade as a builder and architect and his Senate pales next
to his more ambitious plans to build a new Dakar, a new
airport and a brand new capital. Wade is a man who is
looking to leave a legacy and in that context a Senate and
perhaps a son as President should come as no surprise.

COMMENT
--------------

9. (C) For a country as small as Senegal, there is no
justification for a Senate which will be little more than a
drain on an already stretched budget. Furthermore, the
Senate,s role in the law-making process and its profile
vis-a-vis the National Assembly remain unclear. The body
will not be a counter-weight against the PDS, which is a
group of politicians united by the love of money and power
rather than ideology. Wade is a master at dividing and
conquering, and the Senate is just another tool that allows
him to control everything around him. In the event that
Karim does emerge, he will have a bastion of support from a
Senate that his father has molded exactly for that purpose.
It will be his power base through which he will fend off any
internal PDS attacks that may be launched by longtime
loyalist who are unhappy with his meteoric rise. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar,s SIPRNET Web site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.
JACOBS