BENIN: PRESIDENTIAL COALITION WINS PLURALITY OF VOTES AND

UNCLAS COTONOU 000346

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/W (DBANKS)
KAMPALA FOR FLINTROP, LONDON FOR HAHN, PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: PRESIDENTIAL COALITION WINS PLURALITY OF VOTES AND
CONTROL OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

REF: COTONOU 0272

PRESIDENT YAYI WINS CONTROL OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
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1. (U) SUMMARY: On May 4, Benin's National Assembly members,
composed of the 83 legislators voted into office at the March 31
elections, selected their new 6-member Executive Board. The slate of
candidates from parties supporting President Yayi won all the
positions, with 44 votes, confirming that Yayi and his allies have
succeeded in constructing a working majority in the new Assembly.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) As reported in reftel, the coalition "Force Cowrie for an
Emerging Benin" (FCBE),which is closely linked to President Boni
Yayi, won a plurality of 35 seats, and was in a strong position to
find enough small party allies to build a majority. In the end, the
FCBE claims that they have signed up at least 11 additional members
of the Assembly, for a 46-member strong majority. Two junior
positions among the six Executive Board seats went to small allied
parties, with FCBE taking the remaining four positions, including
the Presidency of the Assembly. How easy or solid these
negotiations were remains to be seen. Several local commentators
were surprised that it took nearly two weeks after the Assembly's
April 23 inauguration for the FCBE to exercise their majority
successfully and elect the new Board. President Yayi has personally
noted to the Ambassador his disappointment that the FCBE slate
received only 44, instead of the expected 46 votes, though it is
hard to know who the two wayward members were in the secret ballot.


3. (U) The new president of the National Assembly is Mathurin Nago,
who had been, up until his election to the Assembly, serving as
Yayi's Minister of Higher Education and Vocational Training. Nago,
who has previously served in the National Assembly from 1995 to
1999, is a professor of Biochemistry and Food Science, and former
Dean of the Faculty of Agronomy at the University of Abomey Calavi.
Many observers believe that his combination of a cool temperment,
strong personality, and past legislative experience could make him
an effective leader of the new legislature.

UP NEXT: A GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE
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4. (U) In addition to Mathurin Nago, four other ministers from
Yayi's current government won seats in the Assembly. Political
speculation in Benin has, therefore, now turned to the question of
what changes the President will make in his government. Latest
reports indicate that President Yayi will announce his new team
quickly, no later than May 12. All eyes are on whether Yayi will
only make the minimum changes required, or whether he will use the
opportunity to shift even some of his ministers who were not
involved in the elections.

COMMENT
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5. (SBU) With 64 new members, and only 19 who were able to win
re-election, the new National Assembly holds the prospect for
significant political renewal. Many of the new members, however,
are untested, and not all, including some within the President's
coalition, are free from the taint of scandal or corruption.
Nonetheless, the FCBE's success in controlling the Executive Board
of the Assembly represents another important victory for Yayi. With
both the government and the legislature under his control, Yayi has
unrivalled influence to set the legislative agenda for the next four
years, and to mold the composition of most key state institutions,
such as the Constitutional Court, as their current terms expire in
the coming years. END COMMENT

BROWN