Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07COPENHAGEN998
2007-10-31 13:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Copenhagen
Cable title:  

DANISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: RASMUSSEN'S TO LOSE

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON EUN DA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4310
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHCP #0998/01 3041314
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 311314Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3899
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000998 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR JUDY ANSLEY, MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON EUN DA
SUBJECT: DANISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: RASMUSSEN'S TO LOSE

REF: COPENHAGEN 970

Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000998

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR JUDY ANSLEY, MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON EUN DA
SUBJECT: DANISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: RASMUSSEN'S TO LOSE

REF: COPENHAGEN 970

Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: Two weeks ahead of Danish parliamentary
elections November 13, Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen
looks set to return to office as head of a center-right
minority government -- although perhaps with the backing of a
broader and less manageable coalition. The opposition so far
has been unable to move beyond a rough parity with the
current government parties, suggesting that Denmark's high
economic growth, historically low unemployment and record
budget surpluses will be decisive in a campaign focused on
domestic issues. Whether Rasmussen stays or is replaced by a
Social Democratic-led government, Danish foreign policy will
essentially remain pro-EU, Atlanticist and committed to
active engagement in the wider world. End summary.


2. (C) Polling and the tenor of the electoral campaign so far
suggest that PM Rasmussen chose well in calling early
elections, striking while in good position and before heading
into contentious public sector wage negotiations in the new
year. Buoyed by the strongest Danish economy in memory and
faced with a lackluster political opposition, Rasmussen and
his Liberal-Conservative coalition (supported by the
populist, anti-immigration Danish People's Party) entered
this campaign as clear favorites. Support for the opposition
remains stalled at less than half. Barring some unexpected
shift, the big question is whether the current government
parties can achieve a majority on their own, or will need to
rely on the support of the centrist New Alliance Party (which
has nominally committed to support Rasmussen).


3. (C) The possibility of New Alliance in the kingmaker role
presents Rasmussen with a range of challenges, however. New
Alliance was formed just five months ago as a breakaway party
from the Social Liberal Party (now backing the main

opposition). New Alliance may prove a difficult partner on
its own, but perhaps impossibly so in collaboration with the
Danish People's Party, its ideological opposite on
immigration and other issues. The DPP's charismatic founder,
Pia Kjaersgaard, is using an image of Mohammed on her party's
campaign posters, reminding voters of the upheaval over
cartoons in 2006 and the free-speech absolutism of the DPP.
What's more, one can't be certain that New Alliance leader
Naser Khader (reftel) won't support the Social Democrats in
the end -- regardless of his public position -- thereby
tipping the balance against the government. For these
reasons, Rasmussen will be working hard to shore up the
Liberal, Conservative and DPP vote to ensure that he doesn't
have to depend on Khader. Unfortunately for the prime
minister, support for the New Alliance appears to be growing,
following a steep decline over the summer.


4. (C) The Social Democrats, meanwhile, are looking to
capitalize on voter concerns about public services and a
desire for change after six years of a Liberal-led
government. Although Danes have among the highest tax rates
in the world, they value their public benefits, and the
government's (relatively) tight rein on spending has left it
vulnerable to criticism. So far, however, the Social
Democrats haven't gotten much traction on this issue, as many
voters accept the government's argument that it can spend the
money more efficiently than the SDP. The Social Democrats
have an untested but capable and telegenic leader in Helle
Thorning-Schmidt. Her performance in upcoming
presidential-style debates with Rasmussen will be critical to
raising her stature and improving the opposition's chances.
These prospects were diminished further this week when the
Socialist People's Party announced its demand for ministerial
positions in an SDP-led government, a move bound to alienate
potential coalition partners and motivate center-right voters.


5. (C) With the focus on the choices presented by
unprecedented prosperity at home, foreign policy has so far
been largely absent from this campaign. This reflects not
only a preoccupation with domestic issues but also a general
consensus among the main parties on the broad outlines of
Danish foreign policy. The government's decision to withdraw
from Iraq earlier this year removed the one divisive issue
that could have played a major role in the election, as was
probably the prime minister's intention at the time. The
Danish deployment in Afghanistan has strong support within
the SDP and Social Liberal parties. Over the last year, the
Danish opposition has exploited the alleged mistreatment of
Afghan detainees and purported CIA renditions in an attempt
to embarrass the government. However, these issues have not
emerged so far in the campaign. In keeping with recent
Danish tradition, the major parties have tacitly agreed not

COPENHAGEN 00000998 002 OF 002


to make an issue of whether to hold a referendum on the EU
Lisbon treaty. Neither have relations with the U.S. been an
issue. While there are certainly anti-American elements
within the Danish Left (they are founding tenets for the New
Alliance),for the most part the Danish opposition
demonstrates a responsible approach to foreign policy and
values the partnership between the U.S. and Europe.


6. (C) Comment: A change to a Social Democratic-led
government would present significant challenges for the
United States -- the current government has been among our
closest allies -- but not insurmountable ones. Pressed to
bet, our money is on Rasmussen to win, but we can also take
satisfaction in the conviction that Denmark will remain a
valued partner even if we lose that wager.
CAIN