Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07COPENHAGEN1015
2007-11-09 13:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Copenhagen
Cable title:  

PM RASMUSSEN HOLDS EDGE AHEAD OF DANISH ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON SOCI DA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 001015 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, EUR/NB
NSC FOR JUDY ANSLEY, MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON SOCI DA
SUBJECT: PM RASMUSSEN HOLDS EDGE AHEAD OF DANISH ELECTION

REF: COPENHAGEN 998

Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 001015

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, EUR/NB
NSC FOR JUDY ANSLEY, MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON SOCI DA
SUBJECT: PM RASMUSSEN HOLDS EDGE AHEAD OF DANISH ELECTION

REF: COPENHAGEN 998

Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: With opinion polls showing remarkably little
change after more than two weeks of campaigning, Danish Prime
Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen maintains a slight edge over
his center-left opposition rivals ahead of November 13
parliamentary elections. Rasmussen's
Liberal-Conservative-Danish People's Party alliance is still
projected to be a few seats shy of a majority, however, and
may require the support of the centrist New Alliance party
-- support that could prove costly and contentious for other
coalition partners. With about a fifth of voters still
undecided, the distance between the two camps is close enough
that we cannot exclude entirely the possibility of a Social
Democratic-led victory, despite the opposition's failure to
generate any momentum in the race so far. End summary.


2. (SBU) The latest surveys indicate that the situation four
days before voting is more or less what it was at the start
of the campaign: a rough parity in support between the two
camps, with a small advantage to the PM and with New Alliance
determining the balance of power. Some polls point to modest
movement in the pro-government grouping (the latest Gallup
poll projects 87 seats for the current government parties,
just three short of a majority, with New Alliance),while
others show the Social Democrats and their allies benefiting
from New Alliance's recent decline (one survey has the
opposition group holding an 85-82 seat edge, the first such
result of the campaign). The two head-to-head debates
between PM Rasmussen and opposition leader Helle
Thorning-Schmidt (SDP) failed to stir any significant
movement for either camp, raising the stakes for multi-party
televised debates scheduled for the two evenings before
election day.



3. (C) The main issue of the campaign remains the familiar
debate on public services spending and tax policy (with the
left calling for more spending and the pro-government parties
defending their policies as fiscal good sense),but
immigration has also emerged as a hot topic in the last days
of the campaign. Last week, the Social Democrats joined the
Social Liberal Party in calling for major changes to
Denmark's asylum policy, which would allow asylum seekers to
live and work outside the centers to which they are now
restricted. The move has sparked lively debate in a country
that had greatly tightened its immigration policies in the
past decade, while witnessing a flood of asylum seekers pass
through the country into neighboring Sweden. On a tactical
level, the opposition's new position was widely viewed as an
attempt to lure New Alliance, which nevertheless dismissed
the gesture out of hand. PM Rasmussen has taken a mild tone
in response, pledging to work toward a consensus position on
asylum after the elections, but his allies in the nationalist
Danish People's Party are certain to press the issue hard in
these last four days.


4. (C) Meanwhile, New Alliance leader Naser Khader continues
to reinforce his image as an erratic and unpredictable
partner. Khader revises demands for his support every few
days, and he has reversed himself twice about whether he
would force PM Rasmussen into a constitutional process of
formal negotiations (a "Queen's round") before agreeing to
support the government. Some of his demands, such as
increased foreign aid and assistance for immigrants and
schoolchildren, might be possible in part, but others, such
as dramatically liberalizing asylum policy and investigations
into Afghanistan and Iraq deployments, are clear non-starters
for the government and especially for the Danish People's
Party. The Prime Minister's hope is that the New Alliance's
support will continue its recent slide (now down to around
five percent) and that a final hard push will be enough for
his current coalition to continue in power without NA's
backing.


5. (C) Should neither the prime minister's coalition nor the
opposition achieve a parliamentary majority November 13, the
next steps in the electoral process would be largely
determined by Naser Khader. New Alliance could offer
immediate formal support to PM Rasmussen, allowing the
government to continue as is, or could withhold that support
and force the prime minister into a "Queen's round" of talks,
which could take a week or perhaps much longer.


6. (C) Khader's latest position is that he will support the
government even if agreement can't be reached on a common
platform. Rasmussen has signaled, however, that he doesn't

COPENHAGEN 00001015 002 OF 002


want to be the head of such an unstable, case-by-case
coalition, or one that would result in a return to Denmark's
"footnote period," when policy -- especially foreign and
security policy -- was constantly undermined by opposition
pressure. Many party officials here are already discussing
openly the prospect of new elections within a year if the
next government needs to rely on New Alliance.


7. (C) Comment: This election remains Rasmussen's to lose,
but the prime minister could be forgiven for wondering what
he's won if it means counting on Naser Khader. At the same
time, one of the characteristic features of Danish politics
has been the ability to compromise and forge consensus when
needed, and this may be one of those times.
CAIN